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Only the US Can Destroy the US Dollar

ONLY THE US CAN DESTROY THE US DOLLAR

US Dollar as a reserve asset was the first “flywheel” – and only the US can destroy its own ecosystem.

Being the reserve currency has enormous benefits. And in the entirety of financial history, the US is the first and only fiat reserve currency. Sterling, and any other reserve currencies derived their value from the ability to maintain their value to gold. With the two World Wars, the US came to be seen as the government most able to honour its commitments, and saw huge inflows of gold, but in the 1960s, gold started to flow back to Europe and elsewhere, and in essence, Nixon decided that higher interest rates needed to maintain the link to gold price was not worth the effort, and cut the link to gold price.

Moving from a gold based currency to a fiat currency has had enormous benefits for the US. First of all is that it no longer needs to ever run a current account surplus. That is it never needs to reduce consumption or imports, which is a huge political benefit. The norm since 1980 is for the US to have a current account deficit.

The US also does not need to balance the budget. The budget was balanced in 2000, but this was probably now seen as a tactical error on the part of the Democrats.

What I find most interesting about the transition from gold to US treasury backed financial system is how Asian nations, despite a long history of using gold, accepted this system. China and Japan have some of the largest foreign reserves in the world, but their holdings of gold are limited. Even India holds a relatively small amount of gold as foreign reserves.

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Is the Euro An Energy Problem Or A Central Bank Problem?

IS THE EURO AN ENERGY PROBLEM OR A CENTRAL BANK PROBLEM?

If its an energy problem, then there is no way back. It looks more like a central bank problem to me.

As mentioned in the last post, the huge break in energy prices between the US and the rest of the world could explain the extreme dollar strength we have seen this year.

Part of the problem I have with that is that the corollary of that trade is energy exporters should see a boost from the improved terms of trade. Australia is one of the biggest LNG exporters in the world, and it has not seen any currency appreciation.

There is another way of looking at currency markets that would better explain this behaviour. To generalise, central banks control short term interest rates, and the market control long term rates. When 2 year bond rates diverge radically from central bank rates, its the market’s way of saying inflation is way stronger than expected, and the central bank needs to do something about it. You can see that the market told the Fed to cut to close to zero when Covid hit, and has been telling them to raise rates since late 2021, which they have now followed through on.

Australia got the same signal from the bond market, but has been much tardier to raise rates.

Australia has typically had higher interest rates than the US, this tardiness in raising rates is probably explaining a lot of the currency weakness.

 

So if central banks tardiness is driving a currency like the Australian dollar, what is it saying about Europe?

Peak Shale: Anadarko Just Became The First US Oil Producer To Slash CapEx

Peak Shale: Anadarko Just Became The First US Oil Producer To Slash CapEx

It appears that Horseman Global’s Russell Clark may have been spot on with his bearish take on the US shale sector.

As a reminder, in his latest letter to investors, Clark said that “the rising decline rates of major US shale basins, and the increasing incidents of frac hits (also a cause of rising decline rates) have convinced me that US shale producers are not only losing competitiveness against other oil drillers, but they will find it hard to make money…. at some point debt investors start to worry that they will not get their capital back and cut lending to the industry. Even a small reduction in capital, would likely lead to a steep fall in US oil production. If new drilling stopped today, daily US oil production would fall by 350 thousand barrels a day over the next month.”

What I also find extraordinary, is that it seems to me shale drilling is a very unprofitable industry, and becoming more so. And yet, many businesses in the US have expended large amounts of capital on the basis that US oil will always be cheap and plentiful. I am thinking of pipelines, refineries, LNG exporters, chemical plants to name the most obvious. Even more amazing is that other oil sources have become more cost competitive but have been starved of resources. If US oil production declines, the rest of the world will struggle to increase output. An oil squeeze looks more likely to me.

While the bearish thesis has yet to play out, moments ago Anadarko poured cold water on US energy investors after it missed earnings badly, reporting a Q2 EPS loss of 77c, more than double the 33 cent loss expected.

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