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B.C.’s oil and gas royalty review must take climate action seriously

British Columbia’s recently updated climate plan, Roadmap to 2030, promises to integrate emissions goals into the oil and gas royalty system. But the province’s current royalty system review doesn’t include a design with environmental or climate outcomes in mind.

The policies proposed in the natural gas royalty discussion paper and the expert panel’s report follow an outdated policy approach that’s out of step with B.C.’s climate goals. The review is supposed to align royalties with the province’s revenue, sustainability and climate goals, but the five design objectives arbitrarily exclude the environment. As well, not one of the proposed royalty reforms addresses environmental objectives.

The public consultation phase of the natural gas royalty review process ends Dec. 10 and the outcome of the review is to be released in February.

As an economist studying royalties and emissions from the oil and gas industry in the U.S., I couldn’t help comparing the approaches across the two countries. The U.S. House of Representatives just took a step forward by passing a bill raising oil and gas royalties on public lands from the current 12.5 per cent to 18.75 per cent, which is closer to market rates.

B.C. has stronger climate policies than most American states, so one would expect the province to have a reasonable return for publicly owned oil and gas reserves. I thought 12.5 per cent was a low rate – private U.S. landowners typically get nearly 20 to 25 per cent – but B.C.’s rate was just 2.4 per cent last year, as determined by the recent independent assessment of the natural gas royalty program…

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The Primacy Of Income

The Primacy Of Income

The Era Of Gains is over

Ever since the central banks became serial bubble blowers twenty years ago, household wealth has mostly been driven by asset price inflation:

But this has been a quixotic pursuit. Created by pulling tomorrow’s prosperity into today, these asset price bubbles are unsustainable, and invariably suffer violent corrections at their end.

So far, the central banks have responded to these corrections by simply doing more of the same, just at greater and greater intensity. To keep the current Everything Bubble going, the world’s central banks have not only had to more than quintuple their collective balance sheets, but have recently had to resort to the extreme (desperate?) measure of injecting the greatest amount of liquidity ever in 2016 and 2017.

History has shown us that the height an asset bubble reaches is proportional to the damage it wreaks when it bursts. Applying this logic, the coming pop of the Everything Bubble will be devastating.

So devastating that analysts like John Hussman forecast a 0% (or worse) total market return over the next twelve years:

Moreover, the primary driver and supporter of asset price appreciation over the past seven years, central bank easing, is now gone. For the first time since the GFC, the collective central bank liquidity injection rate (the solid black line in the below chart) is now net zero.

And plans to tighten much further from here have been clearly committed and communicated to the world:

As a consequence, we fully expect yesterday’s capital gains to become tomorrow’s capital losses.  What goes up on thin-air money comes down with its removal.

And while this is going on, interest rates are suddenly exploding higher around the world after spending a decade at all-time historic lows:

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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