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US Exceptionalism Has No Place in a Multipolar World

US Exceptionalism Has No Place in a Multipolar World

US-RussiaFlyby, photo credit: US NavyWith the end of the Cold War twenty-five years ago, many in the U.S have taken the country’s continued global hegemony for granted. However, this state of affairs is increasingly being challenged by both Russia and China, exemplified by their aerial flybys and interceptions of the US military within their respective regions.

Moscow is the Heart

“If St. Petersburg is Russia’s head, and Kiev its legs, then Moscow is its heart.” These words were spoken by Napoleon when explaining the need for France to capture Moscow in order to bring the entire Russian Empire into submission. More generally, he was commenting on the necessity of defeating Russia, first and foremost, in order to truly secure French dominion within Europe.

Recently, a Russian warplane “buzzed” the USS Donald Cook while the ship was performing maneuvers in the Baltic Sea. This incident occurred as the U.S. is looking to increase its material presence in eastern Europe in order to reassure nervous NATO allies in the wake of the Ukraine Crisis. As US­-Russian relations continue to deteriorate, the U.S. will most likely face increasing pressure from NATO allies, most notably Poland and the Baltic states, to adopt an even harsher stance towards Russia.

‘She Will Shake the World’

“Let China sleep, for when the Dragon awakes, she will shake the world.” These words were also supposedly spoken by Napoleon and reference his belief that China’s eventual ascension will impact not only Europe, but the entire world. Even in Napoleon’s own time, before the eventual onset of the Opium Wars, this was self­-evident.

China, meanwhile, has recently intercepted a US reconnaissance aircraft operating in the South China Sea. Although its relations with the U.S. are not nearly as hostile as US-­Russia relations, China has come under increasing international criticism for its artificial island construction and overall territorial claims in the region with respect to its neighbors.

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Missiles Just the Latest Chapter in the South China Sea Saga

Missiles Just the Latest Chapter in the South China Sea Saga

 

US Navy, public domain 

With the recent placement of surface-­to-­air missiles (SAMs) on Woody Island, a subset of the Paracel Islands, China has taken a major step toward militarization of the South China Sea. The action was taken during the recent US-­ASEAN “Sunnylands” Summit, where economics, security, and international law were all discussed. In the context of recent and historical events however, the action, though not entirely justified, could not have come as a surprise to any of the parties involved and forms only the latest chapter in the ongoing book of the South China Sea.

FONOPS and the First Island Chain 

Recently, the U.S. initiated “freedom of navigation” (FONOPS) maneuvers in the South China Sea, designed to ensure the free flow of maritime commerce between the various claimants in the South China Sea disputes. More importantly, the FONOPS actions are designed to ensure military freedom of maneuver for the U.S. Navy. Strategically, the U.S. cannot allow the rise of a peer competitor and definitely not in Asia, the swiftly emerging locus of world economic activity and geopolitical consequence, hence its “rebalance” strategy. Tactically, the U.S. also cannot allow any doubt to emerge regarding its willingness to defend its regional allies in a conflict scenario. To negate this doubt, it must show its resolve to sail anywhere necessary in regional waters to affect this end, citing international law.

From the Chinese viewpoint, the FONOPS are highly hypocritical. This is because while the U.S. purports to support freedom of navigation for itself and its allies within the First Island Chain, it simultaneously seeks to deny that freedom to China outside the chain. This chain stretches from southern Japan to Taiwan to the Philippines and on to the South China Sea.

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For US and Russia, All Roads Lead to China

For US and Russia, All Roads Lead to China

ShanghaiNightline,, Flickr Thomas Bächinger, modified, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

Recently I attended an event where the speaker referred to the interplay between economics and security in Asia as being that of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.  Dr. Jekyll represents the positive economic growth and interaction within the region, while Mr. Hyde represents the increasing security competition between the great powers of the area, namely Japan and China.

Asia, however, does not exist within a vacuum and China in particular has been used as a hedge by Russia whenever its relations with the West have been threatened.  Until fairly recently, the U.S. has historically used China as a spoiler to contain Soviet ambitions and nowadays would hope for improved U.S.-China ties contain a resurgent Russia.  Both Russia and the U.S. have traditionally fixated on China as a wedge to contain the other’s ambitions, with this resultant Cold War mentality still presently accounting for the failure of their respective economies to fully take advantage of integration opportunities within Asia.

Attention Deficit Disorder

With Russia’s turn towards China in the wake of negative Western sentiment and sanctions from its Ukraine and Syria maneuvers, it’s easy to forget that this is a transparent tactic Russia has used before to try to gain political leverage with the West.  Russian efforts to improve ties with China economically and politically go back at least thirty years to Gorbachev’s 1986 Vladivostok visit and 1989 Beijing visit respectively.  Efforts to integrate the Russian Far East (RFE) into the Asian economic dynamic were subordinated to politics yet again with Russia’s brief partnership with the U.S. in the wake of 9/11.  Only after it was apparent that Russia would not be treated as a genuine partner with its own security interests did it turn again towards the East in order to gain leverage.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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