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Rising Sea Levels – by How Much, and Why? A Current Commentary.

Rising Sea Levels – by How Much, and Why? A Current Commentary.

The following was published in the journal Science Progress recently, of which I am an editor. Since this blog typically covers issues of environment and energy, I am including the present topic, which I hope will be of interest to its regular readers, and indeed to anyone else with concerns about the direction of “the changing climate”.

Introduction.

The term “sea level rise” normally refers to an increase in the global mean sea level (GMSL), caused by an increase in the volume of water in the Earth’s oceans, primarily as a result of thermal expansion, the addition of further water  from the melting of land-based ice sheets and glaciers, and  to a  smaller degree from changes in land-water storage, including the transfer of groundwater that has been pumped from aquifers1. As measured on the local scale (Section 4), sea levels may be higher or lower than the global mean value, as a result of various factors, including land subsidence, glacial rebound, tectonic effects, and the influence of currents, local temperatures, winds, tides, storms, and variations in  local barometric pressure2 among  the particular locations where the measurements are  being made. There is strong evidence that the GMSL is increasing, and as a result of long response times from various components of the climate system, this  process may continue over the course of centuries3. It has been estimated that more than half of the observed sea level rise during the 20thcentury was due to global warming4. According to satellite altimetry measurements, the GMSL is currently5,6 increasing by 3.2 ± 0.4 mm yr-1, which is about double the rate determined to have prevailed throughout the 20th century6,…

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Nonlinear: New York, London, Shanghai underwater in 50 years?

Nonlinear: New York, London, Shanghai underwater in 50 years?

Those under the impression that climate change is advancing at a constant and predictable rate don’t understand the true dynamics of the issue. The rate of increase of the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, the main driver of climate change, went from 0.75 parts per million (ppm) per year in 1959 to about 1.5 ppm each year through the 1990s, to 2.1 ppm each year from 2002 to 2012, and finally to 2.9 ppm in 2013.

The fear is that the ability of the oceans and plants to continue to absorb half the carbon dioxide human civilization expels into the atmosphere each year may have become impaired. That means more carbon dioxide is remaining in the atmosphere where concentrations are building at the fastest rate ever recorded in the modern era.

Permafrost across the most northern reaches of land on the globe wasn’t expected the start melting until well into this century. Scientists were shocked to find gaping craters in Siberia where permafrost apparently is no longer permanent. It means carbon dioxide and methane–which absorbs about 80 times as much heat as carbon dioxide during its first 20 years in the atmosphere–will be unleashed from the melting permafrost much sooner than anticipated after being trapped for thousands of years. The release has the potential to speed up warming considerably.

Now comes what must be labeled as the most important story of the year that shows us yet more nonlinear dynamics in the world climate system. New research from James Hansen, the world’s most renown climate scientist, and 16 of his colleagues concludes that many of the world’s coastal cities could become “uninhabitable” in just 50 years due to a rapid, nonlinear rise in sea level. This is far sooner than previous findings suggested.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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