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The Relevancy of Probability in Economics

THE RELEVANCY OF PROBABILITY IN ECONOMICS Modern economics in addition to sophisticated mathematics also employs probability distributions. What is probability?  The probability of an event is the proportion of times the event happens out of a large number of trials. For instance, the probability of obtaining heads when a coin is tossed is 0.5. This […]

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Have you prepped for the most likely SHTF event?

Have you prepped for the most likely SHTF event? I like to read a lot of self-reliant and prepping blogs and articles, as we all likely do. Toward the beginning of my self-reliant venture, these articles and blogs were critical in my education. I am in no way an expert in this field, but I […]

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Uncertainty and the Humility of Forecasting an Unknowable Future

Uncertainty and the Humility of Forecasting an Unknowable Future While we’re being reassured that all these grandiose promises are resting on trends that are as reliably predictable as the tides, the next easily predictable crisis will very likely reveal the trends are speculative bubbles that will predictably burst in a devastating reversion. Certainty and uncertainty […]

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Honey, I Broke the Markets

Honey, I Broke the Markets “Donald Trump looks like the villain in a movie where the hero is a dog.” – The internet. Which four letter word still has an amazing capacity to cause offence, anxiety and aggravation ? In the world of investment, that word would have to be R-I-S-K. Do we even have […]

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charles hugh smith-The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 1

charles hugh smith-The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 1. Given the presumed 17% expansion of the global economy since 2009, the tiny increases in production could not possibly flood the world in oil unless demand has cratered. The term Black Swan shows up in all sorts of discussions, but what does it actually mean? Though the term has roots […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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