The 1985 World Economic Conference
Back in 1985 we warned that the sovereign debt crisis would emerge and start to really surface for 2015.75. Why this date was forecast so far back? This is Pi – 31.4 years into this Private Wave which began 1985.65.
At the 1998 World Economic Conference, we put out this slide with the sequence of events. One question people often ask is how on earth can we make long-term forecasts like this. Such forecasts are only possible with a vast data base. Without that, you cannot even begin. So for all those who are trying to copy our forecasts the real question is – how did they do this without data?
The revelation in forecasting is opposite of what most people assume. They think it is impossible to forecast the long-term and assume the short-term can be done by monitoring fundamental events. The truth is quite shocking. Forecasting the long-term tends to be much easier than forecasting where the Dow will close tomorrow. Why? The short-term is just noise, yet it gets everyone wound up. Every $20 rally in gold brings out the charlatans claiming this time it is it. In reality, the trend cannot be manipulated nor changed even by government for the collective forces of the free market will always win. Even Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Fed put out his “Rediscovery of the Business Cycle” stating this simple fact – the era of “new economics” (Marxist-Keynesianism) which claimed government could eliminate recessions and the business cycle failed.
Then there was Arthur Burns, the Fed Chairman who presided over the birth of the floating exchange rate monetary system in 1971. He too wrote that the business cycle was really INVICTUS (invincible). Yet despite all the behind the curtain admitting that the Free Market always wins, the press, academics in general, and government constantly tell you there is no cycle and you cannot forecast the future so do not listen. Then they immediately forecast strong economic growth the following year.
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