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The Oil and Energy Macro

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U.S. oil reserves reached a new record in 2022. Crude oil and condensate proved reserves exceed 48 billion barrels (Figure 1). Reserves declined from 1969 to 2006 then increased with additions from the deepwater Gulf of Mexico and Tight Oil. Tight oil accounted for 27 billion barrels (56% of total) in 2022.

Figure 1. U.S. proved oil reserves reached a new record in 2022.
Reserves declined from 1969 to 2006 then increased with deepwater Gulf of Mexico and Tight Oil 
Source: EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services
Figure 1. U.S. proved oil reserves reached a new record in 2022.
Reserves declined from 1969 to 2006 then increased with deepwater Gulf of Mexico and Tight Oil
Source: EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services

The U.S. does not, however, have world-class oil reserves. It’s a respectable, second-tier reserve holder similar to Libya. U.S. reserves are about half of Russia’s, one-third of Iraq’s, & about one-fifth of Iran’s & Saudi Arabia’s (Figure 2). It holds roughly 3% of the world’s reserves compared to Iraq’s 9%, Iran’s 12% and Saudi Arabia’s 15%.

Figure 2. The United States is a respectable, second-tier world oil reserve holder similar to Libya.
Reserves are about half of Russia's, 1/3 of Iraq's, & about 1/5 of Iran's & Saudi Arabia's.
Source:  EIA &  Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
Figure 2. The United States is a respectable, second-tier world oil reserve holder similar to Libya.
Reserves are about half of Russia’s, 1/3 of Iraq’s, & about 1/5 of Iran’s & Saudi Arabia’s.
Source: EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Countries in the Persian Gulf have almost half of the world’s oil, and 42% of the worlds remaining proved reserves are in just four countries: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. Iraq is now a vassal state of Iran—an enemy of the U.S.—and, together, they have more than 20% of the oil that’s left. Add Russia and our principal enemies control a quarter of the world’s oil.

Those are terrible odds. U.S. foreign policy after World War II was founded on oil security from the Middle East. The last four energy-blind U.S. presidents managed to undo that. One of those two will be the next president of the United States.

Most people know that the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East are serious but think of them in parochial terms—that they developed out of long-standing feuds between people who have always been at each other’s throats.

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WAR & PETROLEUM RESERVES

WAR & PETROLEUM RESERVES

In the interest of analytical balance, we would do well to consider the possibility of war strategies when it comes to the global stockpiling of petroleum reserves.  In the years leading up to the German invasion of Poland, the world witnessed dramatic decreases in the price of oil as well as massive increases in petroleum inventories, especially as the Texas fields began to produce.

These shifts in the global oil markets ran parallel to the deflation which had begun in October, 1929, and as such, we can see the same pattern repeating today as oil prices collapse, inventories are growing, and world wide deflation is deepening.

The United States and China are both increasing their Global Strategic Petroleum Reserves, with stockpiling taking place in Cushing, Oklahoma, and in provinces throughout China.  The promoted script is that America is seeking energy independence and China is taking advantage of low oil prices to increase stockpiles, as they are an energy importer.

But other countries around the world are stockpiling oil and petroleum products as well, from the construction of massive storage tanks in Nigeria, to hundreds of oil tanker ships full of crude floating of coastlines.  Crude and petroleum product stockpiles are increasing to record levels.

 

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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