End of the Road
The confluence of factors that influence market prices are vast and variable. One moment patterns and relationships are so pronounced you can set a cornerstone by them. The next moment they vanish like smoke in the wind. One thing that makes trading stocks so confounding is that the buy and sell points appear so obvious in hindsight. When examining a stock’s price chart over a multi-year duration the wave movements appear to be almost predictable.
Trend lines matching interim highs and lows, and bounded price movements within this range, display what, in retrospect, are the precise moments to buy and sell. In practice, the stock market dishes out hefty doses of humility with impartial judgment. What’s more, being right does not always translate to success. Sometimes it is more costly to be right at the wrong time than wrong at the right time.
One fallacy that has gained popularity over the last decade is the zealot belief that the Fed disappears risk from markets. That by expanding and moderating the money supply by just the right amount, and at just the right time, markets can grow within a pleasant setting of near nonexistent volatility. Some even trust that when there is a major stock market crash, the Fed, having the courage to act, will soften the landing and quickly put things back upon a path of righteous growth.
Believers in the all-powerful controls of the Fed have a 30 year track record they can point to with conviction. Over this period, the Fed has put a lamp unto the feet and a light unto the path of the stock and bond market.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…