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Oil’s Fate Hinges On OPEC+ Hanging Tough

Oil’s Fate Hinges On OPEC+ Hanging Tough The global oil market is in OPEC+ walk-up mode. That should keep prices supported this week ahead of the (now online) gaggle, which falls on June 2. After that, price direction hinges on the immediate fallout from the meeting, plus bets about the market’s 2H trajectory. Conventional wisdom points […]

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US dollar’s dominance in oil markets may face challenge as Saudis reportedly eye yuan-based sales deal with China

US dollar’s dominance in oil markets may face challenge as Saudis reportedly eye yuan-based sales deal with China Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Lintao Zhang/Getty Images Saudi Arabia is in talks to sell oil to China and be paid in yuan, according to the Wall Street Journal. For nearly 50 […]

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Running Out of Spare Capacity

Running Out of Spare Capacity Global oil markets could not have looked grimmer than back in the summer of 2020. COVID cases were increasing again and further global economic lockdowns were being threatened. Only two months before, oil prices had crashed into negative territory for the first time in history as global inventories had surged […]

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365 Days of Climate Awareness 88 – Peak Oil

365 Days of Climate Awareness 88 – Peak Oil Too much demand causes oil prices to rise to an unsustainable level, leading to the oil market’s collapse. This is another topic, like eutrophication, which is not specifically part of the global warming problem, but it is of direct importance to society and to our use […]

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Oil Market Heading For Months Of Deficit

Oil Market Heading For Months Of Deficit The oil market is set for a deficit from August onwards, even after OPEC+ eases the current cuts that are up for a tentative extension through July, Rystad Energy analysts said on Friday. Assuming that global demand recovery continues in the coming months, the oil market will still […]

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Oil Price Crash Was Inevitable

Oil Price Crash Was Inevitable The oil price crash was inevitable.  To understand why we have to review a bit of history. In 2013, I began warning of the risk to oil prices due to the ongoing imbalances between global supply and demand. Those warnings fell on deaf ears. Nobody wanted to pay much attention […]

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Coronavirus Could Crush Natgas Market Amid Collapsing Chinese Demand

Coronavirus Could Crush Natgas Market Amid Collapsing Chinese Demand Last week we warned that the drop in Chinese petroleum consumption could spark one of the “biggest shocks to oil markets since the Lehman crisis.” Now it seems the fast-moving contagion has spread to liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets, Fitch Ratings detailed in a new report.  LNG markets […]

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A New Mega Cartel Is Emerging In Oil Markets

A New Mega Cartel Is Emerging In Oil Markets China and India—two of the world’s largest oil importers and the biggest demand growth centers globally—are close to setting up an oil buyers’ club to have a say in the pricing and sourcing of crude oil amid OPEC’s cuts and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, […]

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PATRICK LAWRENCE: The US Moves on Iran’s Oil Market as an Expression of an Irrational Foreign Policy

PATRICK LAWRENCE: The US Moves on Iran’s Oil Market as an Expression of an Irrational Foreign Policy Patrick Lawrence gauges the backfiring potential of Pompeo’s withdrawal on Thursday of U.S. sanction waivers from eight major importers.  A Decisive Defeat in Long-Running Battle with Foreign Policy Minders Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s announcement last week that […]

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Smart Money Is Piling Into Oil

Smart Money Is Piling Into Oil Oil prices jumped to five-month highs this week, pushed higher by a bullish cocktail of supply outages, geopolitical unrest and a sputtering shale sector. The most recent factor is the sudden eruption of the long simmering feud in Libya between rival factions. The attack on Tripoli by the Libyan […]

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12 Empty Supertankers Tell Us Everything We Need To Know About The Oil Market

12 Empty Supertankers Tell Us Everything We Need To Know About The Oil Market As the US battles with its OPEC+ rivals over the direction of global oil prices (Trump wants to keep oil prices subdued, while Saudi Arabia and Russia, reeling from years of prices too low to balance their budgets, are desperately hoping […]

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Oil Markets Could See Deficit In 2019

Oil Markets Could See Deficit In 2019 The oil supply surplus is “starting to reverse,” according to a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The investment bank noted that oil prices had collapsed in late 2018 not only because of an oversupply problem, but also because of other “non-fundamental factors,” including the selloff […]

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Darkening Outlook For Global Economy Threatens Crude

Darkening Outlook For Global Economy Threatens Crude “The outlook for the global economy in 2019 has darkened.” That conclusion came from a new report from the World Bank, citing a variety of data, including softening international trade and investment, ongoing trade tensions, and financial turmoil in emerging markets over the past year. “Storm clouds are […]

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Nothing To See Here, It’s Just Everything

Nothing To See Here, It’s Just Everything The politics of oil are complicated, to say the least. There’s any number of important players, from OPEC to North American shale to sanctions. Relating to that last one, the US government has sought to impose serious restrictions upon the Iranian regime. Choking off a major piece of […]

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A VERY RARE SETUP: Who Will Win The Tug Of War In The Oil Market?

A VERY RARE SETUP: Who Will Win The Tug Of War In The Oil Market? There has been a tug of war in the oil price over the past two weeks.  Due to a very rare setup in the market, the oil price has traded in a very narrow range as traders fight it out […]

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