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U.S., European Oil Majors Could Create Supply Crisis With Renewables Push – Russia’s Rosneft

U.S., European Oil Majors Could Create Supply Crisis With Renewables Push – Russia’s Rosneft

Rosneft is looking to double down on hydrocarbons and extract up to 5 billion tons of light-quality oil in the Arctic.Alexander Rumin / TASS

U.S. and European oil majors’ commitment to moving away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy threatens oil supplies and prices, Russia’s state-run oil giant Rosneft has said, according to the Financial Times.

BP, Chevron, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Repsol, Shell and Total have to varying degrees laid out strategies they say are compatible with the Paris climate treaty. They have announced measures over the past year that include reducing the carbon intensity of their products, transitioning into renewable energy, storing “captured” CO2 underground and offsetting emissions through reforestation.

Rosneft criticized these moves in a sign of what the FT described as “a growing divide” between state-backed oil companies and the energy companies that helped shape today’s oil industry.

“It is an existential threat for supply. It is an existential threat for price volatility,” it quoted Rosneft first vice president Didier Casimiro as saying at the newspaper’s commodities summit.

“We will have a [supply] crunch, price volatility and, yes, higher prices,” Casimiro said.

The oil majors’ move away from their core business, he added, means other players “will need to step in” and “take that responsibility.”

Meanwhile, Rosneft is looking to double down on hydrocarbons and extract up to 5 billion tons of light-quality oil in the Arctic through its Vostok Oil project. Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin has described the project as the biggest in the history of the modern global oil industry.

The U.S. Treasury earlier this year sanctioned Casimiro and Rosneft’s Geneva-based trading arm, where he is chairman of the board and president, for allegedly propping up Venezuela’s oil sector.

Leaked Document Reveals Exxon’s Plan To Increase Emissions As Energy Space Prepares For Decarbonization

As oil majors prioritize their own decarbonization goals, an internal document viewed by Bloomberg reveals Exxon Mobil Corp. is planning to increase annual carbon-dioxide emissions output by as much as a small country like Greece.

Exxon is one of the biggest corporate emitters of greenhouse gasses globally,  and the leak comes as the Texas-based company’s rivals, such as BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, are planning, or have already begun, to shrink oil and gas operations to become net-zero on carbon by 2050 or before.

The internal document revealed Exxon’s stunning investment strategy of more than $200 billion in energy investments that would increase its emissions by about 17% through 2025. These investments are projected to drive higher cash flows and double earnings. However, much of the strategy was developed in pre-virus pandemic times and has yet to be revised for a post-pandemic world of lower oil demand and collapsing energy prices

But the planning documents show for the first time that Exxon has carefully assessed the direct emissions it expects from the seven-year investment plan adopted in 2018 by Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods. The additional 21 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year that would result from ramping up production dwarfs Exxon’s projections for its own efforts to reduce pollution, such as deploying renewable energy and burying some carbon dioxide.

These internal estimates reflect only a small portion of Exxon’s total contribution to climate change. Greenhouse gases from direct operations, such as those measured by Exxon, typically account for a fifth of the total at a large oil company; most emissions come from customers burning fuel in vehicles or other end uses, which the Exxon documents don’t account for.

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Shale Is In A Deep State Of Flux

Shale Is In A Deep State Of Flux

Chevron shale

Oil prices are rising to their highest level in months, with WTI having topped $60 per barrel, but the U.S. shale industry is still showing signs of strain.

“This is a cycle in our industry where only the large well-capitalized companies can grow. Small companies without access to capital are stagnant,” one oil executive in Texas said in response to a survey from the Dallas Federal Reserve. “It is a major industry readjustment period.”

The oil majors are scaling up their operations in the Permian basin, with ambitious plans to ratchet up output. ExxonMobil plans on hitting 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2024 from the Permian, and Chevron hopes to reach 900,000 bpd. U.S. shale is more important than ever to their business plans.

But even as the role of shale is critical to the majors, small- and medium-sized E&Ps are struggling. Poor financial returns, loss of interest from investors, pressure to cut spending and return cash to shareholders, and encroachment from the majors are tightening the screws on smaller drillers. The “shrinkage in market capitalization of some companies is breathtaking. These loses translate into a loss of interest in further direct investments in the drilling of new oil and/or natural gas prospects,” another respondent said in the Dallas Fed survey.

A few other concerns seemed to dominate the thinking of Texas oil executives:

  • “Qualified young professionals are avoiding joining the oil and gas industry.”
  • “Pipeline constraints in the Permian Basin continue to cost us up to $20 per barrel and have a significant impact on capital expenditures. This cost changes month by month, making revenue estimation difficult.”
  • “Smaller independents are competing with a different animal that is too expensive to tame. Deep pockets for manufacturing oil and gas have taken over the patch here.”

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Oil Megaprojects Won’t Stay On The Shelf For Long

Oil Megaprojects Won’t Stay On The Shelf For Long

For years, as conventional oil reserves depleted and became increasingly hard to find, oil companies ventured into far-flung locales to find new sources of production. Extracting oil from these frontier areas required more advanced technology and a lot more capital: Ultra deepwater, Arctic offshore, heavy oil sands, and increasingly, the Lower Tertiary.

Often these megaprojects projects were only the purview of the largest oil companies, as smaller players did not have the resources – financial or technological – to make them work. Meanwhile, smaller drillers, at least in North America, turned to shale, which required less upfront cash and could be turned around on a quick timetable.

The collapse of oil prices, however, could kill off the megaproject. The oil majors are scrambling to cut costs, and large-scale projects with high costs and long time-horizons are not making the cut. A combined $19 billion in write-downs was recorded in the last week of October as the oil industry reported third quarter earnings.

Spending on deepwater exploration is expected to be cut 20 to 25 percent industry-wide, according to Barclays, substantially higher than the 3 to 8 percent cut for exploration on all varieties of fields.

One problem for these large projects is chronic delays and ballooning costs. Around 80 percent of large projects fail to stay on budget and come online at the expected start date, according to Bloomberg. About three-quarters of them have suffered delays, and two-thirds have blown through their original cost expectations.

That could force even the oil majors to start to back away from large-scale oil projects. Royal Dutch Shell recently scrapped its Arctic program and wrote off a costly oil sands asset at Carmon Creek. The completion of Chevron’s Big Foot project in the Gulf of Mexico will be pushed back by a few years because of equipment problems.

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Oil Majors Sacrifice Production To Protect Dividends

Oil Majors Sacrifice Production To Protect Dividends

The French oil company Total released a downward revision to its production forecast, lowering its target from 2.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2017, to 2.6 mb/d, a sign that low oil prices continue to cut into long-term oil production for even the largest companies.

Total’s CEO said part of the reason for the more modest target was spending cuts, amid falling oil prices. Lower investment will lead to lower output in the future. The other part of the problem is delays to projects that the company already has in the works.

It is no secret that low oil prices are eating into the resources that major oil companies have to use at their disposal. Less revenue from lower oil prices leaves less capital to invest. But, the oil majors do have choices, and for now they are choosing to find savings in their capital spending budgets in order to protect their dividend policies. Dividends are seen as sacred, something that cannot be touched for fear of losing their sterling reputation with major investors. That means that even profitable oil projects get the axe in order to protect payouts to shareholders.

Related: VW Scandal Bad News For Diesel

There are few exceptions to this approach, save for Italian oil giant Eni, which became the first oil major to slash its dividend in March of this year. “We are building a much more robust Eni capable of facing a period of lower oil prices,” CEO Claudio Descalzi said at the time, explaining the company’s decision to trim its dividend. Eni’s share price plummeted in the days following the news, but has not performed noticeably worse than its peers in the intervening months.

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The “Peña Nieto Bottom”

The “Peña Nieto Bottom”

When Enrique Peña Nieto’s government pushed a historic energy reform bill through the Mexican congress in 2013, it was hoped that it would serve not only to privatize but also modernize Mexico’s state-owned Pemex and allow it to compete with giants like Exxon. However, the one thing the government seemingly hadn’t counted on was the collapse in global oil prices.

At the time, Brent oil prices were sitting pretty at around $110 per barrel. It was assumed those prices were there to stay; instead, they have plummeted to $50 per barrel.

Peña Nieto Bottom

Despite the government’s constant denials, the pain is beginning to show. The first auction of off shore oil leases, in July, was an unmitigated disaster, with only two of 14 exploration blocks awarded, both going to the same Mexican-led trio of energy firms.

Oil is no longer a seller’s market. The financial arithmetic facing a potential investor has been turned on its head by the recent collapse of oil prices. As a result, many projects that were a slam- dunk just a year ago have become distinctly dicey propositions. At the same time fierce, competition among oil producing nations continues to drive prices southward.

As Bloomberg reports, Brazil and Mexico are preparing to compete for investments from some of the same oil majors when they hold auctions only a week apart at a time that the price rout is prompting spending cuts:

“In times of low oil prices, all companies need low costs and promising returns,” John Forman, a consultant and former director at Brazil’s oil regulator, said in an interview in Rio de Janeiro. “Brazil and Mexico will compete for resources and low-cost projects will be key.”

 

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Oil Majors’ Profits Take A Beating

Oil Majors’ Profits Take A Beating

The first quarterly earnings reports since the collapse of oil prices are in and the numbers show a significant deterioration in profits for the oil majors.

Royal Dutch Shell went first on January 29, revealing a big jump from the same quarter a year ago, but down from the third quarter of 2014. In fact, Shell announced that it would cut $15 billion in spending over the next few years, an about-face from just a few months ago when it stated that it would leave capital expenditures unchanged in 2015. Shell’s CEO, concerned about the poor state of oil and gas markets, said that it may even consider withdrawing itself from significant assets held around the world, retrenching and focusing on North America.

On the same day, ConocoPhillips also reported gloomy numbers. It plans onslashing 2015 spending by an additional 15 percent, which comes after a December announcement of a 20 percent cut in expenditures for the year.

Related: Schlumberger To Retake Oil Services Crown With New Deal

Chevron followed that up on January 30, posting its worst showing in five years. The $3.5 billion in earnings for the fourth quarter of 2014 was 30 percent lower than from the previous year. The California-based oil major says that it will trim spending by 13 percent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

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