Home » Posts tagged 'northman trade'

Tag Archives: northman trade

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

Mismatch

Oh dear. People are embracing the bubble and, as it happens in every bubble, fantastical narratives are emerging to justify the valuations and the price momentum as folks cannot square reality with non stop levitation in equity prices. Never mind that the final price spurt in any bubble is the most dangerous and most deceiving.

And with these fantastical narratives suddenly debt no longer matters because MMT. Inflation is declared dead as central bankers keep missing their inflation targets yet consumers are well aware of inflation in their daily lives, and yield curves no longer matter because they are simply a play thing of central bankers who can now prevent recessions forever:

“The Fed has the power to “prevent or quickly undo” an unwanted inversion, the BofA economists said.”

If debt doesn’t matter, inflation doesn’t exist, and yield curve inversions can be prevented by an all powerful Fed we must truly live in a world of milk and honey.

After all:

United States weekly jobless claims just hit a 50 year low. The economy is doing GREAT!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 20, 201

Things are so awesome we are experiencing some of the loosest financial conditions in history:

And global liquidity keeps running at record levels:

No wonder stocks are celebrating and flirting with record highs, indeed record highs are already seen printed on tech and consumer discretionary:

No wonder investors are chasing after money losing IPOs like it’s 1999:

And are piling in their cash after a 24% rally off the lows:

After all Q1 GDP is flying higher to unforeseen levels.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecasting model, always having an adventurous relationship with reality, is now forecasting a 2.8% GDP print for Q1, following a 0.4% projection just 6 weeks ago:

Looks like Alan Greenspan is right. Get a big rally in $SPX and suddenly your GDP looks much better.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed Crying Has Begun

The Fed Crying Has Begun

So stocks dropped a little in October. Ok they actually dropped a lot and all of a sudden the S&P 500 was miles away from the all those optimistic 3,000+ year end targets. And what happens when stocks drop hard? Bulls cry for the Fed to come to the rescue.

It was quite the scene.

Here’s the global market cap wiped off in just October:

$8 TRILLION. Poof. Gone. The largest drop since 2008.

So it is no wonder the Fed begging has begun. From the president on down:


“If the Fed backs off and starts talking a little more Dovish, I think we’re going to be right back to our 2,800 to 2,900 target range that we’ve had for the S&P 500.” Scott Wren, Wells Fargo.


Jim Cramer: “My main fear is that we could have a mini version of 2008 if the Fed doesn’t change course,” the “Mad Money” host said. “Our one hope? If Fed chief Jerome Powell actually starts listening to the stock market and wakes up to the damage that tariffs can do to the economy, then maybe he’ll shift gears, just like Greenspan did in ’98. Then we can bottom and even roar higher. But as long as Powell stays committed to the December hike and three more next year, … and the president stays committed to expanding his tariffs, then history says we’ve got more downside no matter what.”

Canaccord’s Tony Dwyer: “Fed needs to take its foot off the throat of the market.”

Bill Stone Avalon Advisors’ co-chief investment officer: “The one thing to watch is the Fed, the market is looking at the possibility of a policy error there — that they’ll tighten too hard.”

Merrill Lynch’s head of market strategy Joe Quinlan: “The current market rally has legs, as long as a hawkish Fed doesn’t stop it”

From the Financial Times:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress