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Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCII– Hydrocarbons: Our Finite, Master Energy Resource and the Implications Of Its Peak For Modernity
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCII–
Hydrocarbons: Our Finite, Master Energy Resource and the Implications Of Its Peak For Modernity
Sun setting on an oil field.
If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.
I’m finding that Large Language Models (LLMs) are a fantastic tool for skimming large amounts of information and summarising what it has scanned–it might take me hours/days/weeks to locate, access, read, interpret, summarise in my own words, and then review multiple times for grammar/spelling/flow of thought/etc. a fraction of the data that these computer programmes can take seconds to do. As such, I’ve spent some time using one for the purpose of following some thoughts on Peak Oil, a topic that I have been interested in for 15+ years and continue to keep at the forefront of my thinking when interpreting world events and attempting to better understand our modern, complex societies.
As I’ve asserted repeatedly, energy is everything. Nothing exists without it and it is most certainly fundamental to human complex societies–the more energy we have available and use, the larger and more complex our societies and their various systems become. Yes, our ingenuity and technological prowess have helped us create and build these complexities, but it is all underpinned by energy of one form or another and we have repeatedly leveraged energy to support our various adaptations, technologies, and massive expansion to most corners of our planet.
Our modern world is dependent upon huge amounts of energy and in particular that provided by a finite cache of hydrocarbons. From an energy perspective hydrocarbons–particularly oil–are the commodity resource that should be considered humanity’s ‘master energy resource’; and it is one that appears irreplaceable given its energy-return-on-investments, density, transportability, and a variety of other characteristics that have led to its primacy in supporting our societal complexities.
And for better or worse, the waning days of this phenomenal and paramount energy resource are clearly in sight (or at least should be). So what are the implications of this for ‘Modernity’?
Let’s explore what the LLM Deepseek (DS) garners from the information it has access to regarding this hugely significant resource.
I asked the following five preparatory questions:
- How much oil does the world use per day?
- What percentage of oil reserves get extracted within 5-10 years of discovery?
- What percentage of discovered oil reserves tend to end up as actually recoverable?
- What percentage of recent oil production comes from unconventional sources?
- What is the trend for new oil field discoveries for the past twenty years?
My culminating question based upon the responses to the above inquiries:
- Given that: the world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day; only 10-30% of conventional oil fields, 20-50% of unconventional oil, and 5-15% of heavy oil can be recovered within 5-10 years of discovery; only 35-45% of conventional fields and 5-30% of unconventional oil is typically recovered; unconventional oil sources provide a significant and growing share of oil production; and that for the past twenty years new oil discoveries have failed to keep up with demand, what are the implications for modern, complex societies?
The response to this last question begins by stating: “The implications of these trends for modern, complex societies are profound, touching on energy security, economic stability, geopolitics, and environmental sustainability.”
And DS concludes: “Modern societies built on cheap, abundant oil face a decade of reckoning. The choices made now—between clinging to fossil fuels or aggressively transitioning—will determine whether the 21st century sees managed adaptation or chaotic collapse.” (You can find the full responses to my questions directly below my opening comments.)
First, ‘profound’ would be one way to describe what Peak Oil portends for our societies. The peaking and subsequent shortfall in hydrocarbon extraction will send (is sending?) our current societal systems spinning in some very ‘interesting’ ways–including some Black Swan events that few, if any, can envision.
There’s a very good argument that this process began quite a number of years ago and has resulted in such ‘adaptations’ as significant expansion of manipulation/machination within impacted societal systems, especially our economic and geopolitical ones. And this will be/is particularly true for the current global hegemon (i.e., the US-NATO Empire) whose ‘power’ is greatly at risk as a result–continued expansion and control is virtually impossible without massive energy resources to support them.
Second, while I disagree with the ‘solution’ (pursuit of an aggressive transition to ‘renewables’) proposed by DS–not that I asked for one–I am not surprised by it.
LLMs base their ‘answers’ to questions upon the prompts that are inputted by the person performing the inquiry and the data/information they have access to. Most individuals and groups (including, but especially profit-driven industries, governments, and academic institutions) are firmly entrenched in the denial and bargaining phases of awareness concerning our energy-resource predicament, and they are the ones that have dominated our research, reporting, and conversations about the issue.
As such, our media and public spaces are flooded with the narrative (and derivations of it) that human ingenuity and our technological prowess can ‘solve’ any ‘problem’ that we encounter–and those that can have leveraged this societal belief to extract ‘wealth’ and reinforced it at every opportunity. On top of this, most have not only been conditioned to believe this tale but want to believe desperately that it is true. So, it is not the least bit surprising that LLMs would ‘conclude’ that we can address the predicament of Peak Oil via our technology of ‘renewables’ and forthcoming ‘clean’ energy ‘breakthroughs’. (I can’t help but think of the saying “garbage in, garbage out”, or in this case: “hopium in, hopium out”.)
Whether you agree with DS’s proposed ‘solution’ to this predicament depends greatly upon your worldview/paradigm/schema/interpretive lens and the stage of awareness/grieving you find yourself presently within. If you do hold this story to be ‘true’, I recommend looking behind the curtain of the ‘renewables-will-save-us’ storyline and especially into the dark corners where is hidden the disastrous impacts upon our ecosystems of the production of these industrial products and their reliance upon massive hydrocarbon inputs.
To sum up the ‘risks’ and ‘solutions’ the LLM DS suggests regarding a peaking of oil resources [along with what I suspect may accompany each]:
-Hydrocarbon price volatility due to supply shocks and geopolitical conflict [expect deflection regarding what is causing price volatility and the ramping up of nationalism, warmongering, and othering in light of geopolitical tensions].
-Risk to economic systems as prices inflate due to higher energy costs [expect dramatic debt-/credit-based money ‘creation’ and significant price inflation–blamed on anything but waning hydrocarbon supplies, money ‘printing’, and wealth extraction by the ruling ‘elite’ and various snake oil salesmen].
-Escalating geopolitical tensions due to resource nationalisation and competition [even more nationalism, warmongering, and othering along with reasons for everyone (except the elite) to tighten their belts as we invest ever-greater amounts of resources into domestic resource exploration/extraction and the military–to help in accessing/controlling non-domestic resources].
-Technological adaptation to minimise reliance upon hydrocarbons [expect the narratives surrounding our ability to ‘solve’ hydrocarbon supply shocks to be ever-present and arguments for gargantuan monetary investments in these technologies and research around them; along with massive wealth gains for those connected to these–completely ‘justifiable’ because they’re ‘saving the world’].
-Increasing energy poverty, particularly for the already ‘disadvantaged/marginalised’ [expect those already suffering from our current socioeconomic and sociopolitical systems to take it on the chin even more while our ‘leaders’ argue that just the opposite will occur with our energy-security and military ‘investments’–in other words, even more pronounced socioeconomic inequality and increasing narrative management regarding this].
It’s certainly a fine mess we find ourselves caught up in. Prepare accordingly…
A handful of my recent Contemplations that touch on the subjects discussed above:
-Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future. March 28, 2025. Website Medium Substack
-Imperial Longevity, ‘Collapse’ Causes, and Resource Finiteness. March 7, 2025. Website Medium Substack
-Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse? February 20, 2025. Website Medium Substack
-‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 1. January 12, 2025. Website Medium Substack; Part 2. January 25. Website Medium Substack; Part 3. January 31. Website Medium Substack
–US Peak Shale Oil & Gas: When the Walls Come Tumblin’ Down. December 30, 2024. Website Medium Substack
-Sorry, folks, but ‘renewables’ are NOT going to save humanity or the planet. December 1, 2024. Website Medium Substack
–Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s), Part 1. October 7, 2024. Website Medium Substack; Part 2. October 15. Website Medium Substack;Part 3. October 23. Website Medium Substack; Part 4. October 28. Website Medium Substack
–‘Renewables’: The Great ‘Solution’ (NOT). August 20, 2024. Website Medium Substack
The detailed DeepSeek responses follow.
- How much oil does the world use per day?
As of recent data (2023-2024), the world consumes approximately 100 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d). This figure includes all forms of petroleum liquids, such as crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and refinery processing gains. =
Key Insights on Global Oil Consumption:
- Top Consumers:
– United States (~20 mb/d)
– China (~15–16 mb/d)
– India (~5–6 mb/d)
– European Union (~13–14 mb/d combined)
- Demand Trends:
– Oil demand has been rising gradually, driven by emerging economies (Asia, Africa, Middle East).
– Developed nations are seeing slower growth due to energy transitions and efficiency improvements.
- Future Projections:
– The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC expect demand to peak between 2030–2040 as renewable energy and electric vehicles expand.
– Short-term demand remains strong due to industrial needs, aviation, and petrochemicals.
- What percentage of oil reserves get extracted within 5-10 years of discovery?
The percentage of oil reserves extracted within 5–10 years of discovery depends on several factors, including the type of reservoir, technology, economics, and geopolitical conditions. Here’s a general breakdown:
Typical Recovery Rates in Early Years
- Conventional Oil Fields (Easy-to-extract reserves):
– ~10–30% of the total recoverable reserves may be extracted in the first 5–10 years.
– Faster extraction occurs in large, high-pressure fields (e.g., Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar).
– Offshore and deepwater projects (e.g., Brazil’s pre-salt) may take longer due to complexity.
- Unconventional Oil (Shale, Tight Oil, Oil Sands):
– ~20–50% of reserves can be extracted quickly (within 5–10 years) due to hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling.
– However, shale wells decline rapidly (~60–70% in the first year), so continuous drilling is needed.
- Heavy Oil & Oil Sands (e.g., Canada’s Alberta):
– Only ~5–15% may be extracted in the first decade due to slower, energy-intensive extraction methods (e.g., steam-assisted gravity drainage).
Key Factors Affecting Early Extraction
– Technology: Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods (e.g., CO₂ injection) can speed up extraction.
– Economics: High oil prices incentivize faster development.
– Regulations: Strict environmental policies (e.g., Norway, U.S. offshore) may delay production.
– Field Size: Giant fields (>1 billion barrels) take longer to develop but produce for decades.
Long-Term vs. Short-Term Extraction
– Most fields produce for 20–50 years, with peak output often 5–15 years after discovery.
– Example: The Permian Basin (U.S.) saw rapid fracking-driven extraction, while deepwater fields (e.g., Guyana’s Stabroek) take ~5–7 years from discovery to first oil.
- What percentage of discovered oil reserves tend to end up as actually recoverable?
The percentage of discovered oil reserves that end up being actually recoverable depends on geological, technological, and economic factors. Here’s a breakdown of key concepts and estimates:
- Definitions
– Original Oil in Place (OOIP): Total oil in a reservoir (100%).
– Proved Reserves (1P): Oil that is ~90% likely to be recoverable with current tech/economics.
– Recoverable Reserves: What can realistically be extracted over time (usually 30–60% of OOIP).
- Recovery Factors by Reservoir Type:
Reservoir Type | Typical Recovery Factor | Notes |
Conventional Oil (e.g., Saudi Arabia, North Sea) | 20–50% | Depends on pressure, permeability, and secondary recovery (water/gas injection). |
Unconventional (Shale/Tight Oil) (e.g., U.S. Permian Basin) | 5–15%** (per well) | Fracking improves extraction, but wells decline fast. |
Heavy Oil/Oil Sands** (e.g., Canada, Venezuela) | 5–30% | Requires steam or solvent injection (SAGD). |
Deepwater/Offshore** (e.g., Brazil pre-salt) | 15–40% | High-tech extraction but challenging conditions. |
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)** (CO₂, chemical flooding | 30–60%+ | Can boost recovery beyond primary/secondary methods. |
- Why Isn’t 100% Recovered?
– Physical Limitations: Oil sticks to rocks (residual saturation), and reservoirs lose pressure.
– Economic Constraints: Extracting the last 20–30% may cost more than the oil’s value.
– Technological Barriers:Some reserves (e.g., ultra-deep, Arctic) are too difficult with current tech.
- Industry Trends Improving Recovery
– Digital Oilfields (AI, sensors) optimize extraction.
– EOR Methods (CO₂ injection, microbes) push recovery rates higher.
– Nanotechnology & Advanced Fracking** help tap more shale oil.
- Real-World Examples
– Ghawar Field (Saudi Arabia): ~50–60% recovery (best-case conventional).
– Permian Shale Wells: ~5–10% per well, but new drilling keeps reserves “replenished.”
– Alberta Oil Sands: ~10–20% recovery via mining, up to ~30% with in-situ methods.
Bottom Line
Globally, only about 35–45% of discovered oil is typically recovered from conventional fields, with some EOR pushing it to 50–60% in ideal cases. Unconventional oil (shale, heavy oil) often recovers far less (5–30%).
- What percentage of recent oil production comes from unconventional sources?
As of recent data (2023–2024), unconventional oil sources (shale/tight oil, oil sands, and deepwater) contribute a significant and growing share of global oil production. Here’s the breakdown:
Global Oil Production: Unconventional vs. Conventional
Source | Share of Global Production | Key Regions |
Unconventional (Total) | ~30–35% (~30–35 million barrels per day) | U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina |
Shale/Tight Oil | ~15–18%** (~15–18 mb/d) | U.S. (Permian, Bakken), Argentina (Vaca Muerta) |
Oil Sands | ~5–6%** (~5–6 mb/d) | Canada (Alberta) |
Deepwater/Ultra-Deep | ~8–10%** (~8–10 mb/d) | Brazil (pre-salt), Gulf of Mexico, West Africa |
Conventional Oil | ~65–70%** (~65–70 mb/d) | Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE |
Key Trends
- U.S. Dominance in Shale Oil
– The U.S. is the world’s **top oil producer**, thanks to fracking (shale/tight oil accounts for ~65% of U.S. production).
– The Permian Basin alone produces ~6–7 mb/d (more than most OPEC countries).
- Canada’s Oil Sands
– Alberta’s oil sands produce ~3.5–4 mb/d, but growth is slowing due to climate policies.
- Brazil’s Deepwater Boom
– Pre-salt fields (e.g., Tupi, Búzios) now produce ~2.5–3 mb/d, making Brazil a top-5 global producer.
- OPEC’s Declining Share
– Conventional oil (led by OPEC+) still dominates, but its market share has dropped from ~50% in 2000 to ~35–40% today due to the U.S. shale revolution.
Future Outlook
– Unconventional production (especially shale) will remain critical but faces challenges:
– Shale decline rates (wells lose ~60% of output in Year 1).
– Investment constraints (ESG pressures, fewer new drillings).
– Deepwater and oil sands will grow moderately, while shale may peak in the 2030s.
- What is the trend for new oil field discoveries for the past twenty years?
Over the past 20 years (2004–2024), the trend in new oil field discoveries has shifted dramatically, with significant implications for global supply. Here’s a breakdown of key trends:
- Declining Volume of Discoveries
– 2000s (Peak Era):
– Annual discoveries averaged ~15–20 billion barrels (Gb) of oil equivalent (boe) in the early 2000s.
– Major finds: Kashagan (Kazakhstan, 2000), Tupi (Brazil pre-salt, 2006), Jubilee (Ghana, 2007).
– 2010s (Sharp Drop):
– Discoveries fell to ~5–10 Gb/year, with a record low of ~4 Gb in 2016 (Rystad Energy).
– Reason: High exploration costs, focus on shale, and underinvestment in conventional drilling.
– 2020s (Partial Recovery):
– Improved technology (AI, seismic imaging) boosted discoveries to ~8–12 Gb/year, but still below replacement levels.
– Recent giants: Guyana’s Stabroek Block (Exxon, 2015+), Namibia’s Venus (2022).
- Shift to Offshore & Unconventional
– Deepwater/Ultra-Deepwater Dominance:
– ~60% of new reserves since 2010 came from offshore (Brazil, Guyana, Namibia).
– Example: Guyana’s discoveries (>11 Gb since 2015) now produce ~600,000 b/d (rising to 1.2+ mb/d by 2027).
– Shale’s Short-Term Boom:
– U.S. tight oil surged but relies on reserve growth via drilling (not new field discoveries).
– Shale adds ~5–10 Gb/year in “technically recoverable” reserves but has steep decline rates.
- Smaller Average Field Size
– Pre-2000: Average discovery size was ~500 million barrels (Mb).
– Post-2010: Dropped to ~100 Mb, with fewer “elephant” fields (>1 Gb).
– Exceptions:
– Guyana (Exxon’s Stabroek: 11 Gb+**).
– Namibia (TotalEnergies’ Venus: **~3 Gb+**).
- Replacement Ratio Crisis
– Global oil consumption:~35–40 Gb/year.
– Discoveries vs. Demand:
– Only ~20–30% of consumed oil was replaced by new discoveries in the past decade.
– The industry now relies more on reserve growth in existing fields (e.g., EOR, shale drilling).
5. Future Outlook
– Offshore Focus: Brazil, Guyana, Namibia, and the East Mediterranean will drive new supply.
– Exploration Risks:
– ESG pressures limit investment in frontier regions (e.g., Arctic).
– National oil companies (NOCs) now dominate exploration (vs. shrinking major oil firm budgets).
Key Takeaway
New discoveries have failed to keep pace with demand since the 2010s, pushing the industry toward:
- Smaller, technically complex fields (deepwater, shale).
- Lower-carbon extraction (methane reduction, CCUS).
- Geopolitical shifts (Guyana/Namibia rising, Middle East stabilizing).
- Given that: the world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day; only 10-30% of conventional oil fields, 20-50% of unconventional oil, and 5-15% of heavy oil can be recovered within 5-10 years of discovery; only 35-45% of conventional fields and 5-30% of unconventional oil is typically recovered; unconventional oil sources provide a significant and growing share of oil production; and that for the past twenty years new oil discoveries have failed to keep up with demand, what are the implications for modern, complex societies?
The implications of these trends for modern, complex societies are profound, touching on energy security, economic stability, geopolitics, and environmental sustainability. Here’s a breakdown of the key challenges and potential outcomes:
- Energy Security & Supply Crunches
– Growing Demand vs. Stagnant Discoveries:
– The world consumes ~35–40 billion barrels/year, but discoveries replace only 20–30% of that.
– Result: Dependence on existing fields (many in decline) and unconventional sources (costly, finite).
– Geopolitical Vulnerabilities:
– Reliance on a shrinking number of producers (OPEC+, U.S. shale, Guyana, Brazil) increases price volatility.
– Conflicts or underinvestment could trigger supply shocks (e.g., 1970s-style crises).
- Economic Risks
– Higher Oil Prices:
– Tighter supply + rising demand (especially from Asia) could push prices above $100/barrel long-term.
– Inflationary pressure on transport, manufacturing, and food production.
– Shale’s Limits:
– U.S. tight oil has peaked in prime basins (Permian growth slowing by 2030s).
– Fracking requires continuous drilling—capital and labor shortages could disrupt output.
- Geopolitical Shifts
– New Power Centers:
– Guyana, Brazil, and Namibia gain influence; traditional producers (Saudi Arabia, Russia) face budget strains.
– Resource Nationalism:
– Countries may hoard reserves (e.g., Mexico’s PEMEX reforms, Venezuela’s sanctions battles).
– Energy Wars:
– Competition over remaining resources (Arctic, South China Sea) could escalate tensions.
- Industrial & Technological Adaptation
– Efficiency & Substitution:
– Airlines, shipping, and petrochemicals will face scarcity-driven innovation (e.g., biofuels, hydrogen).
– Electric vehicles (EVs) reduce transport demand but won’t offset industrial/oil-heavy sectors fast enough.
– Enhanced Recovery:
– AI, robotics, and nanotechnology may squeeze 5–15% more oil from old fields, delaying collapse.
- Societal & Environmental Strains
– Energy Poverty:
– Rising prices disproportionately hit low-income households (heating, transportation costs).
– Climate Trade-Offs:
– Societies may delay decarbonization to secure oil (e.g., Europe’s post-Ukraine coal revival).
– Or accelerate renewables if oil shocks become frequent (1970s spurred nuclear/solar investments).
- Potential Scenarios
1. “Muddling Through” (Most Likely)
– Oil prices oscillate between $80–150/barrel, driving slow adoption of alternatives.
– Repeated supply crunches spur stop-gap measures (coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids).
2. Crisis & Collapse
– A major geopolitical disruption (e.g., war in the Gulf) triggers global recession.
– Shortages cripple logistics chains (food, medicines) and destabilize governments.
3. Rapid Transition
– Oil shocks force WWII-scale mobilization into renewables, nuclear, and synthetic fuels.
– Cities redesign transport (walkability, EVs), industries pivot to circular economies.
Key Takeaways for Policymakers & Businesses
- Diversify Energy Mix: Fast-track renewables, nuclear, and hydrogen to reduce oil dependence.
- Strategic Reserves: Expand stockpiles for supply disruptions.
- Demand Reduction: Mandate efficiency (CAFE standards, industrial electrification).
- Geopolitical Alliances: Secure partnerships with stable producers (e.g., U.S.-Guyana ties).
Bottom Line
Modern societies built on cheap, abundant oil face a decade of reckoning. The choices made now—between clinging to fossil fuels or aggressively transitioning—will determine whether the 21st century sees managed adaptation or chaotic collapse.
Exploring questions of the impact upon the planet’s ecosystems of the proposed ‘solution’ of an aggressive transition to ‘renewables’ is fodder for a future Contemplation…
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
The Bulletin: January 23-29, 2025
The Bulletin: January 23-29, 2025
Collapse or Extinction: The Unholy Double Bind of the 21st Century
US Will Likely Stop Buying Oil From Venezuela: Trump | The Epoch Times
The End of the Regenerative Illusion?
Germany’s Outgoing Economy Minister Warns Europe Not to Over-Rely on US Energy | The Epoch Times
Modern Civilization is Proving to be a Very Fragile Thing
Canada Can’t Afford To Play Trade Chicken With the US
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation? – RIA
Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis | Scientific Reports
Storm Éowyn: man killed and 725,000 properties without power in Ireland
Misled Climate CO2 Fanatics – Green Energy Is a Road to Nowhere – Global Research
Medical Journal Article Criticises Corrupt Medical Journals
Visualizing Europe’s Dependence On Chinese Resources | ZeroHedge
Gazprom In Turmoil, Forced To Hike Prices On Russians In Middle Of Winter | ZeroHedge
Warming, cooling, or we don’t know?
Homo Sapiens Are Working Overtime to Join ‘The Great Silence’ | Collapse of Industrial Civilization
Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going
When Renewables Meet Their Limits to Growth
Letter From a Young Canadian: Authoritarianism, Media Propaganda and Repression
World Economic Forum Panel Praises EU Censorship Law
Green Deception: Environmental Activists Serve China’s Energy Agenda | RealClearDefense
Climate change is disrupting food systems across Latin America, UN report says | CNN
‘Last Ice Area’ in the Arctic could disappear much sooner than previously thought
“Landman” vs. the Environmentalists | Mises Institute
2025: On the Brink of the Biggest Oil Shock in History – International Man
The Uncertain Future of Oil: Energy Poverty, Depletion, and ‘Green’ Ambitions
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXXXI–Sociopolitical Agency, Narrative Management, And Collapse
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CXXXI–Sociopolitical Agency, Narrative Management, And Collapse
May 22, 2023 (original posting date)

Today’s reflection is a comment I left in response to an article by Bruce Wilds at his Advancing Time site that discusses the increasing anger building across the planet with respect to growing government oppression and the media’s role in suppressing this through purposeful omission of it.
My comment:
Having studied pre/history for some years I’ve come to the conclusion that none of this is novel or unique. It’s just different than in the past as the ruling caste’s scope is wider and the tools they manipulate/leverage are different.
One avenue has been the manipulation of our sense of agency (something all humans desire to have). The elite have sold us the narrative that we have such agency because of our ‘democratic’ sociopolitical systems and the ‘choices’ we make at the ballot box. That’s simply nonsense.
As is the idea that our ruling caste (especially their frontline propagandists — the political system) puts front and foremost the welfare and prosperity of the hoi polloi. Their primary concern/motivation is the control/expansion of the wealth-generation/-extraction systems that ensure their revenue streams and thus positions of power and prestige.
This has been the way since our first large, complex societies provided differential access to and control of net surpluses to a minority of ‘functionaries’ that helped to organise re/distribution of these resources.
I am also convinced that as we run up against the diminishing returns inherent in resource extraction/use (especially energy, the fundamental resource supporting all these complexities) we will (and are) witnessing a tightening-of-the-screws by the elite since they can no longer rely almost exclusively upon narrative control (their preferred method as it tends to be more efficient and economical, and prevents social unrest) but must increase their use of coercion (mostly via legislation) to keep the masses in ignorance and feeding their insatiable desires for power and wealth.
How this ends is anybody’s guess but in every iteration to date in our experiments with large, complex societies, diminishing returns has led to eventual ‘collapse’ where the masses find the ‘costs’ of remaining in the elite-controlled system greatly outweigh the ‘benefits’ and opt out in whatever way they can.
If you’ve made it to the end of this contemplation and have got something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially Catton’s Overshoot and Tainter’s Collapse: see here.
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 1
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword and Afterword by Michael Dowd, authors include: Max Wilbert; Tim Watkins; Mike Stasse; Dr. Bill Rees; Dr. Tim Morgan; Rob Mielcarski; Dr. Simon Michaux; Erik Michaels; Just Collapse’s Tristan Sykes & Dr. Kate Booth; Kevin Hester; Alice Friedemann; David Casey; and, Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
The Bulletin: November 28-December 4
The Bulletin: November 28-December 4
Globalists Go For Broke: Plan To Trigger World War III Moves Forward – Alt-Market.us
Why Bunkers Won’t Save The Super Rich
Hydropower decline due to climate change may increase price tag to decarbonize the grid
Energy Crises & Global Power Shifts: The Struggle for Stability in Israel, Iran, and Beyond
The shocks that made me abandon the green movement
Exxon Pours Cold Water On Trump’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” Plans | ZeroHedge
The Dilemma and Conundrum of Predicaments
Landman | Tommy Explains Why Even Wind Turbines Depend on the Oil Industry (S1, E3) | Paramount+
Here’s Why We Could See a Big Pivot Away From the Green Scam Agenda
This Dystopia Depends On Hiding Inconvenient Truths
Bankers, Fed Origins, and World War I | Mises Institute
The Civilizational Hospice Protocol
Small Farming, Urbanisation, and Climate Migration
Depopulation: Are the World’s Elites Planning to Kill Us?
Oil Producers Block Binding UN Treaty To Curb Plastics
Green Energy vs. the Mojave Desert
Babson’s Warning – Doug Casey’s International Man
Are Stocks Poised to Crash 55% Soon? – by David Haggith
Bumblebee population increases 116 times over in ‘remarkable’ Scotland rewilding project
Rethinking Energy, Productivity, and the Illusion of Endless Growth | Art Berman
DIY Microplastic Removal From Water? Study Says Yes
The Looming Debt Crisis: Is America Following the Path of Collapsed Empires?
A Mind-Blowing Leap | Do the Math
How Climate Change Is Framed to Disempower You | by Joe Brewer | Dec, 2024 | Medium
Carbon Dioxide: The Wonder Molecule
Don’t Buy Into Phony Anti-Establishment Schtick
Iran Ready To Send More Troops To Syria, But This Could Trigger Deeper Israeli Entry | ZeroHedge
House Oversight Report Supports Chinese Lab Leak Theory For Covid-19 Origins
Existential Risks: The Biggest Threats to Life as We Know It
The Bulletin: November 7-13, 2024
The Bulletin: November 7-13, 2024
Thousands Of Californians Lose Power After PG&E Protects Grid As Wildfire Risks Soar | ZeroHedge
The Possible Relevance of Joseph Tainter – by Brink Lindsey
The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated | The Epoch Times
Do You Want Truth or Illusion?
Has the world ‘surrendered’ to climate change? These authors think so | CBC News
Here’s Why These Geopolitical and Financial Chokepoints Need Your Attention…
67 Reasons why wind turbines cannot replace fossil fuels | Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse
Adapting For the End of Growth
All States are Empires of Lies | Mises Institute
It Is Time We Educate Children About The Coming Collapse – George Tsakraklides
What Kind of Society Will We Have?
We Are On the Brink Of An Irreversible Climate Disaster
What You Need To Know About Preparing For Emergencies
Can We Escape Our Predicament? – The Honest Sorcerer
Science Snippets: Buildings Collapsing Due to Climate Change
Surviving the Apocalypse: A Practical Guide to Modern Risks
The Politics of Collapse: uncommon conversations for unprecedented times – Prof Jem Bendell
Microplastics Could Be Making the Weather Worse | WIRED
Trump Inherits Turd of an Economy – Ed Dowd | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
Amsterdam shows us just how brazenly the media rewrites history
Global Food Prices Re-Accelerate For Second Month As Situation Remains ‘Sticky’ | ZeroHedge
‘Nothing grows anymore’: In Malawi, eating becomes a daily struggle due to climate change
Financial Collapse Within 18 Months
Why Don’t We Just Build More Nuclear?
Buzzkill: The Alarming Impact of Light Pollution on Honey Bee Health
Understanding Energy Use: The Challenge Of Substituting Electrification
The Bulletin: October 31-November 6, 2024
The Bulletin: October 31-November 6, 2024
They Are Scrubbing the Internet Right Now
EU Warns “Citizens” To Prepare For A Nuclear Disaster | SHTF Plan
Our Nation Is about to Reap the Whirlwind of All Lies we’ve Told
They’re doing what they’re accusing us of doing – American Thinker
Death toll from Spain floods passes 200 as rescue teams search for missing
World War III has already begun, JP Morgan boss says
TV documentary on collapse readiness
Europe’s Gas Crisis Isn’t Over Despite Full Storage
The Collapse of Complex Societies – Professor Joseph Tainter
The Empire of Lies – by Ugo Bardi – The Seneca Effect
War. War Never Changes. – The Honest Sorcerer
DDoS Attack Cripples Archive.org: The Next Information War Front?
After The Storms, The Toxic Secrets Left Behind
How to…Rig Your Rigged Elections – OffGuardian
Escobar: The Roadblocks Ahead For The Sovereign Harmonious Multi-Nodal World | ZeroHedge
Rising hunger predicted across 16 global hotspots – The Watchers
Rainwater samples reveals it’s literally raining ‘forever chemicals’ in Miami
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Limits of Government
Record Number Of Americans Plagued By Drought Amid Crop Damage Fears | ZeroHedge
Game Of Chess: US Prepares Next Move With More B-52s, Warships To Middle East | ZeroHedge
Our Fragile Infrastructure: Lessons From Hurricane Helene – Global Research
Global water supply faces unprecedented stress | Climate & Capitalism
The Bulletin: October 10-16, 2024
The Bulletin: October 10-16, 2024
Chaos is Coming – John Rubino | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
Social Trust: It’s Not Warm and Fuzzy, It’s the Money, Honey
The History Of “Round Up” and pathways for Glyphosate Detox (from the soil and human body)
A Tipping Point for Global Population and Economic Growth: What it Means for Oil | Art Berman
‘The water wars are coming’: Missouri looks to limit exports from rivers, lakes
Climate Change is Coming for Your Supply Chain
When the Electricity Dies | The Epoch Times
My New Book Is Unleashed: The Mythology of Progress
Facebook Faces Heat for Blocking Report on Arrest of US Journalist in Israel
The weeds are winning | MIT Technology Review
Assess Your Local Landscape For Collapse
UN warns world’s water cycle becoming ever more erratic
Planetary Health Check: The State of Earth’s Critical Systems
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: A Hard Rain Is Going to Fall
Will There Be a Second Stone Age? – The Honest Sorcerer
Our food system is broken and we only have 60 harvests left, researchers warn
Oil shortages lead to hidden conflicts–even war
Can We Rein In the Excesses of Financialization Without Crashing the Economy?
#291: The coming shock | Surplus Energy Economics
Electric Power Update: Big Data, AI, Bitcoin, Natural Gas, and More
The Bulletin: October 3-9, 2024
The Bulletin: October 3-9, 2024
From a Bunker in Israel, American Empire is Over – Charles Nenner | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
Why Political “Solutions” Don’t Fix Crises, They Make Them Worse
Bank Of America Customers Report Widespread Outage, Zero Balances | ZeroHedge
Politicians Who Promise “Economic Growth” Are Lying 💰
Helene is now the deadliest mainland U.S. hurricane since Katrina » Yale Climate Connections
Taiwan shuts down for second day as Typhoon Krathon makes landfall
The Double Bind With Mitigating Ideas
The One World Order Is Here. UN Pact of the Future. “United under UN Tyranny” – Global Research
Doug Casey Exposes the Global Elites’ Plan for Feudalism 2.0—and How You Can Resist
Reckoning with Growth – by Steve Keen – The Ideas Letter
The Western Media Helped Create These Horrors In The Middle East
Green Jobs or Greenwashing? – Biocentric with Max Wilbert
The Superorganism and the Self – by Nate Hagens
Adapt or Die, Or…? – Charles Hugh Smith’s Substack
Think Climate Change Is a Hoax? Try Betting on It | Art Berman
Nowhere in America is safe from climate-fueled storms and fires, say scientists
What Would World War III Really Look Like? It’s Already Starting… – Alt-Market.us
Never Let Your Government Tell You Who Your Enemies Are
#290: Project 2050, part two | Surplus Energy Economics
Burn the Planet and Lock Up the Dissidents
The Second Bronze Age – The Honest Sorcerer
Manufacturing Energy Crises – by Rachel Donald
This is what Peak Cheap Energy looks like
The Rogue Primate — Revisited | how to save the world
7 Key Takeaways: 2024 State of the Climate Report
Yes, You Need To Be Able To Do This [The Market Ticker ®]
The Bulletin: September 26-October 2, 2024
The Bulletin: September 26-October 2, 2024
US War Profiteers Bring World To Brink Of Armageddon | ZeroHedge
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: What’s Changed? What’s Different This Time?
British Government Warns Of Weak Military – Says Civilians Must Be ‘Ready To Fight’ | ZeroHedge
What is Ecological Overshoot and Why is it so Controversial?
Misinformation Is Bad. Prohibiting It Is Worse | ZeroHedge
Ahead Lies Ruin: The Decay of Social Trust
The Babylon Bee Strikes Back: Lawsuit Takes on California’s Anti-Satire Laws
Politicians Who Promise “Economic Growth” Are Lying 💰
Extreme rainfall leaves over 260 dead or missing in Nepal – The Watchers
Biggest Monetary Shock in 50 Years – The Daily Reckoning
The Digital Puppeteers: Big Tech’s Influence on Society
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Why Climate Denial Is No Longer Possible | Art Berman
The Bulletin: September 19-25, 2024
The Bulletin: September 19-25, 2024
An Unprecedented Monetary Destruction Is Coming | Mises Institute
The Energy Collapse | Louis Arnoux – by Rachel Donald
North Carolina, Europe, Nigeria: Why everywhere seems to be flooding | Vox
EPA Scientists Faced Retaliation After Finding Harm From Chemicals, Reports Find — ProPublica
Europe Prepares For Hot War With Russia, US Readies For Hot War With China
Three Mile Island is reopening and selling its power to Microsoft | CNN Business
Well being: The Glyphosate Addiction
2030: Our Runaway Train Falls Off the Seneca Cliff
The World is in Crisis – by Rachel Donald
“Game-Changer”: Global Mega Banks Prepare Major Support For Nuclear Power | ZeroHedge
Daniel Lacalle: Prepare for “Unprecedented Monetary Destruction”
The US Government’s Debt Crisis: Why Bankruptcy Is Unavoidable and What It Means for You
Quantum CEO Claims the Shale Revolution Is Over | OilPrice.com
The Collapse Is Coming. Will Humanity Adapt? | The MIT Press Reader
What Cannot Continue Will Stop
Putin Lowers Threshold Of Nuclear Weapons Use In Dramatic Warning Aimed At NATO | ZeroHedge
The Bulletin: September 13-19
The Bulletin: September 13-19
Popular Narratives That Do Not Hold Up Under Scrutiny
Environmental Impacts of Human Migration
Did Putin Just Issue the Most Serious Warning to Date? – Global Research
It’s Also “Disinformation” When Our Government Does It | Mises Institute
A Short Conversation About Politics – by Caitlin Johnstone
How We’re Supposed to Live Now | how to save the world
By Kira & Hideaway: On Relocalization – un-Denial
The Permian Basin Is Depleting Faster Than We Thought
The Day when Food Ran Out – by Ugo Bardi
G20 Ministers Meet in Brazil To Discuss “Disinformation” Censorship Agenda
The Scary Truth About Living in Big Cities During the Turbulent Times Ahead
Grocery Rationing Within Four Years – by Quoth the Raven
The End of the Great Stagnation – The Honest Sorcerer
The Real Election Meddling Will Happen Right Out In The Open
Nassim Taleb: People Aren’t Seeing the Real De-Dollarization
Australia’s Latest Censorship Bill Threatens Big Fines Over Online “Misinformation”
Entire Polish city of 44,000 asked to evacuate as Storm Boris floods wreak havoc | The Independent
You could be breathing in microplastics that then enter your brain, new research reveals | Euronews
Deep State Knows It Cannot Cheat Kamela In – Martin Armstrong | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
The Bulletin: August 23-29, 2024
The Bulletin: August 23-29, 2024
Global Food Production Is Being Limited by a Lack of Pollinators | Technology Networks
There’s No Good News In The Unfolding Of Armageddon
You Don’t Get To Vote On Any Of Your Government’s Most Consequential Actions
Russia warns the United States of the risks of World War Three | Reuters
Common Threads In Societies That Collapse
COUNTDOWN TO CRISIS, CATASTROPHE AND COLLAPSE – The Burning Platform
Inflation is Forever – by David Haggith – The Daily Doom
The Hidden Agenda: How Governments Use Inflation To Redistribute Wealth
MM #16: Recap and Mythology | Do the Math
The Coming of the Roman Tax Collectors – Doug Casey’s International Man
Must Go Faster. Must Have More. – by Guy R McPherson
Climate Change Is Making the Middle East Uninhabitable
A Tour of the Jevons Paradox: How Energy Efficiency Backfires
60,000 tons of treated water from nuclear site discharged so far | The Asahi Shimbun
The Permanent Temptation of All Governments | AIER
The future is community – by Patrick Mazza – The Raven
The Lines Between Fact and Fiction Are Blurred… Here’s Why You Should Question the Narrative
Disposable Power Plants: Wind and Solar are the Single-Use Plastic of the Power Plant World
The Bulletin: August 16-22, 2024
The Bulletin: August 16-22, 2024
“Ubiquitous” – Scientists Discover That the Oceans Release Microplastics Into the Atmosphere
Why large projects fail. Especially Renewable Energy | Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse
Global Debt Hits A New High Of $315 Trillion | ZeroHedge
Big Tech Uses More Electricity Than Entire Countries | ZeroHedge
Western Battle Tanks Are Invading Russia: Sky News | ZeroHedge
China Coal Production Hits New All Time High For July | ZeroHedge
Nature is the Best Teacher – Biocentric with Max Wilbert
The Biggest Issue Is NOT Climate Change; It Is OVERSHOOT
How the Russia-Ukraine War Could Go Nuclear–By Accident
Science Snippets: Ice Melting, North and South
Lebanon Plunged Into Darkness As Last Operational Power Plant Runs Out Of Fuel | ZeroHedge
15000 Scientists From 184 Countries Are Warning Humankind We’re Screwed
Politicians In Dystopialand Warn Other Candidate Will Cause Dystopia
The Impossible Math of Growth – George Tsakraklides
Environmental laws failing to slow deforestation, researchers say
‘Overshoot myth’ risks catastrophic global warming – News
Today’s economy is like that of the late 1920s
Fascism 2.0 – The changing face of social media censorship – OffGuardian
Why Nuclear Energy Is Not the Solution to the Climate Crisis – The Good Men Project
As Arctic Thaws, New Evidence of Looming ‘Mercury Bomb’ – Yale E360
EU Lawmaker Threatens to Ban X Unless Musk Complies with Censorship Demands
July 9, 2024 Readings
July 9, 2024 Readings
The meme that is destroying Western civilisation Part V–Steve Keen
Food Ecomodernism And The Emptying Of Politics, Part 1–Chris Smaje
Global News Round-up: Let them Eat Bugs–Robert Malone
After Leftist Lobbying, German Bank Kills AfD Donation Account–Armageddon Prose
Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When – MishTalk
Corporate Media Is An Unreliable Narrator–Matt Orsagh
This Civilization Is Not Interested In Saving Itself–The Honest Sorcerer
OMG Haaretz Is Hamas Propaganda Now! – by Caitlin Johnstone
Alaska’s top-heavy glaciers are approaching an irreversible tipping point–Bethan Davies
‘I had to downgrade my life’ – US workers in debt to buy groceries–BBC News
The Public Cost of Private Science–Nautil.us
No Reform or Leader Is Going to Save the Status Quo–We’re On Our Own–Charles Hugh Smith
NOTHING ELSE MATTERS – The Burning Platform
It’s All MMT: The Fraud Of ‘Monetary Policy’ | ZeroHedge
Master Class On Strategic Organised Resistance: Class 1–Collapse Curriculum
From Prosecutor to Censor: Barbara McQuade’s Call to Erode Free Speech–Reclaim The Net
100 Miles South Of Salt Lake City, A New Type Of Off-Grid Community | ZeroHedge