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Though the situation is ever changing, currently the Russian government has announced an official shutdown of ALL natural gas exports to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and plans to maintain the shutdown until the EU ends its economic sanctions over the war in Ukraine. This means that around 40% of Europe’s energy resources are now gone, with supply chain issues surrounding the other 60% and prices skyrocketing for households and businesses.

Back in March in an article titled ‘The Biggest Lies (So Far) Surrounding Russia And Ukraine’ I noted that:

“…There’s something else the media does not talk about much, which is Europe’s reliance on Russian oil and natural gas. If you want to see actual price inflation caused by Russia, let the EU ban Russian oil imports, or watch as Putin cuts off the supply. Europe is dependent on Russian oil and gas for about 40% of overall energy production. They cannot even survive a single year without it. If Russia retaliated and blocked energy exports to Europe, the the EU would have to siphon oil from many other countries, reducing global supply dramatically. This would cause gas prices to explode to double or even triple current levels.”

Back in April of this year in my article ‘The Media Is Ignoring These Two Events Which Could Cause Economic Collapse’ I predicted that:

“…The Russian economy is not about to fold anytime soon, and now the EU, which is reliant on Russian oil and gas exports for 40% of their energy needs, is about to face economic doom unless they submit to paying for energy in rubles (which they won’t) or find a replacement source for gas and oil (which is impossible)…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fed Paper Admits the Central Bank Can’t Control Inflation; Finger-Points at Federal Government

September 1, 2022

Fed Paper Admits the Central Bank Can’t Control Inflation; Finger-Points at Federal Government

It appears somebody at the Federal Reserve has figured out that the central bank can’t tame inflation, so it’s setting up a scapegoat – Uncle Sam.

A paper co-authored by Leonardo Melosi of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and John Hopkins University economist Francesco Bianchi and published by the Kansas City Federal Reserve argues that central bank monetary policy alone can’t control inflation.

The paper’s abstract asserts, “This increase in inflation could not have been averted by simply tightening monetary policy.”

In a nutshell, Melosi and Bianchi argue that the Fed can’t control inflation alone. US government fiscal policy contributes to inflationary pressure and makes it impossible for the Fed to do its job.

Trend inflation is fully controlled by the monetary authority only when public debt can be successfully stabilized by credible future fiscal plans. When the fiscal authority is not perceived as fully responsible for covering the existing fiscal imbalances, the private sector expects that inflation will rise to ensure sustainability of national debt. As a result, a large fiscal imbalance combined with a weakening fiscal credibility may lead trend inflation to drift away from the long-run target chosen by the monetary authority.”

There are a couple of startling admissions in this single paragraph.

First, the authors acknowledge that the federal government uses inflation as a tool to handle its debt. In other words, it acknowledges that we’re all paying an inflation tax.

Peter Schiff talked about this inflation tax in an interview on Rob Schmitt Tonight.

Inflation is a tax. It’s the way government finances deficit spending. Government spends money. It doesn’t collect enough taxes, so it has to run deficits. The Federal Reserve monetizes those deficits – prints money. They call it quantitative easing, but that’s inflation…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greyerz – The US Economy Is Crashing But The Global Collapse Will Be Even More Terrifying

August 31, 2022

Greyerz – The US Economy Is Crashing But The Global Collapse Will Be Even More Terrifying

Today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE and historic moves in currencies and metals warned King World News that the US economy is crashing but the global collapse will be even more terrifying.

_____

“Everyone wants to live
at the expense of the
state. They forget
that the state wants
to live at the expense
of everyone.”
Frederic Bastiat

August 28 (King World News) – Egon von Greyerz, Founder of Matterhorn Asset Management (based in Switzerland): Contrary to what the wisest men and women in the land have told us, the world has been hit by the most vicious bout of inflation.

The “transitory” heads of the Fed and ECB clearly couldn’t recognise inflation until there was a scapegoat like Putin to blame it all on.

The fact that Powell, Lagarde and their predecessors had laid the perfect foundation not just for a small spell of price increases but for an unstoppable avalanche of global inflation, they were totally oblivious of.

NEITHER COVID NOR PUTIN IS THE CAUSE OF INFLATION
Let’s be very clear.

Covid didn’t create inflation.

Putin didn’t create inflation.

No, inflation is the result of governments’ and central banks’ irresponsible and totally irrational policy of believing that prosperity can be created out of thin air.

They don’t understand or at least choose not to understand that reckless creation of fake money that has zero value CREATES ZERO WEALTH.

Money in itself has ZERO value. Money is just a derivative that derives its value as a medium of exchange through the production of goods and services.

In simple terms, money that has derived value from anything but goods and services has ZERO value.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It’s Game Over for the Fed—Expect a Monetary “Rug Pull” Soon…

August 13, 2022

It’s Game Over for the Fed—Expect a Monetary “Rug Pull” Soon…

You often hear the media, politicians, and financial analysts casually toss around the word “trillion” without appreciating what it means.

A trillion is a massive, almost unfathomable number.

The human brain has trouble understanding something so huge. So let me try to put it into perspective.

If you earned $1 per second, it would take 11 days to make a million dollars.

If you earned $1 per second, it would take 31 and a half years to make a billion dollars.

And if you earned $1 per second, it would take 31,688 years to make a trillion dollars.

So that’s how enormous a trillion is.

When politicians carelessly spend and print money measured in the trillions, you are in dangerous territory.

And that is precisely what the Federal Reserve and the central banking system have enabled the US government to do.

From the start of the Covid hysteria until today, the Federal Reserve has printed more money than it has for the entire existence of the US.

For example, from the founding of the US, it took over 227 years to print its first $6 trillion. But in just a matter of months recently, the US government printed more than $6 trillion.

During that period, the US money supply increased by a whopping 41%.

In short, the Fed’s actions amounted to the biggest monetary explosion that has ever occurred in the US.

Initially, the Fed and its apologists in the media assured the American people its actions wouldn’t cause severe price increases. But unfortunately, it didn’t take long to prove that absurd assertion false.

As soon as rising prices became apparent, the mainstream media and Fed claimed that the inflation was only “transitory” and that there was nothing to be worried about. Then, when the inflation was obviously not “transitory,” they told us “inflation was actually a good thing.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

UN Secretary-General Blames Global Economic Crisis On Ukraine War

August 4, 2022

UN Secretary-General Blames Global Economic Crisis On Ukraine War

NATO governments and globalist institutions have put on a good show acting as if they hate Putin and the Russian advance in Ukraine, but the reality is that the war acts as an all encompassing distraction from the greater agenda at hand. It offers globalist organizations, western politicians and central banks a perfect scapegoat for the ongoing economic instability caused by THEIR policies.

As anyone that follows alternative economic knows, the stagflationary crisis that is escalating today was triggered well before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Price inflation was hitting 40 year highs in December of 2021, months before the war started. Gas prices were skyrocketing long before sanctions on Russia were ever implemented, climbing from an average of $2.20 per gallon in November of 2020 to $5 per gallon in June of 2022. That’s more than a 100% increase in less than two years and most of it occurred before Ukraine was an issue.

What really caused stagflation? It’s a process initiated by central bank stimulus that the alternative media has been warning about for many years. The real culprits are central bankers and the politicians that align with them. The world has been awash in fiat money as a means to prolong economic corrections that should have been allowed to run their course a long time ago. Instead, bankers sought to artificially prop up the system and funnel money into “too big to fail” corporations along with the too big to fail stock markets. Now, of course, things are changing.

The inevitable Catch-22 dynamic has come into play – Central banks can continue to print and keep interest rates near zero, but inflation will rapidly expand, making all their efforts pointless as rising costs lead to plummeting demand…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

#234. Britain on the brink

July 22, 2022

#234. Britain on the brink

THE PRICE OF EXTREMISM

Whether the country’s leaders know it or not, the United Kingdom is now at serious risk of economic collapse.

We must hope that this doesn’t happen. If it does, it will take the form of a sharp fall in the value of Sterling which, in these circumstances, is the indicator to watch.

A currency crash would cause sharp increases, not just in the prices of essential imports such as energy and food, but also in the cost of servicing debt. In defence of its currency, Britain could be forced into rate rises which would bring down its dangerously over-inflated property market.

This risk itself isn’t new. Rather, it results from a long period of folly, and can’t be blamed entirely on the current administration, inept though the Johnson government undoubtedly is. What we’re witnessing now seems to be a government on the edge of panic. The official opposition doesn’t offer a workable alternative programme, and mightn’t be electable if it did.

We need to be clear that the root cause of Britain’s problems is long-term adherence to an increasingly extreme ideology sometimes labelled ‘liberal’.

It’s one thing to recognize the merits of the market economy, but quite another to turn this into a fanaticism which judges everything on its capability of generating short-term private profit.

Extremism is divisive, and creates winners and losers to an extent that moderation does not. If solutions still exist for Britain’s worsening problems – and that’s a very big “if” – there are two reasons why such solutions mightn’t be adopted.

The first is that these solutions would anger a very vocal group of winners under the existing system.

The second is that those in charge would have to make a public admission of the failures of extremism.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Implosion Will Be Fast–Hold Onto Your Seats

July 4, 2022

THIS IMPLOSION WILL BE FAST – HOLD ONTO YOUR SEATS

The massive money creation in the 2000s has led to a debt and asset bubble, which is about to burst. Investors will be shocked by the speed of the decline and won’t react before it is too late.

The massive money creation by central and commercial banks in this century has resulted in a growth of global assets from $450 trillion in 2000 to $1,540 trillion in 2020.

DEBT TO GDP GROWTH

As the chart below shows US debt to GDP held well below 25% from 1790 to the 1930s, a period of almost 150 years. The depression with the New Deal followed by WWII pushed debt to GDP up to 125%. Then after the war, the debt came down to around 30% in the early 1970s.

The closing of the gold window in 1971 ended all fiscal and monetary discipline. Since then, the US and much of the Western world has seen debt to GDP surge to well over 100%. In the US, Public Debt to GDP is now 125%. Back in 2000 it was only 54% but since then we have seen a vote buying system with a money printing bonanza and an exponential increase in debt to 125%.

A major part of the debt increase has gone to finance the rapid growth in property values.

The table below shows that property has grown on average by 250% between 2000 and 2020. So individuals are creating wealth by swapping properties with each other. Hardly a sustainable form of wealth creation.

The exponential growth in property prices has been global although countries like China, Canada, Australia and Sweden stand out with over 200% gains since 2000. Most of the properties bought in the last 20+ years involve massive leverage. When the property bubble soon bursts, many property owners will have negative equity and could easily lose their homes.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Pulling Back The Curtain On The ‘Real’ US Economy

July 1, 2022

Pulling Back The Curtain On The ‘Real’ US Economy

Revised numbers on US GDP from the Bureau Of Economic Analysis indicate that the economy faces a deeper contraction than originally reported. GDP shrank in the first quarter of 2022 by 1.6%; this is an impressive and sharp reversal from the fourth quarter of last year, which saw GDP grow by 6.9% due primarily to the continued circulation of covid stimulus dollars and consumer credit spending.

It’s important to keep in mind that this plunge in GDP occurred BEFORE the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates. Meaning, the Fed did in fact raise rates into economic weakness, much like they did during the onset of the Great Depression, causing even more damage to the economy in the process and prolonging the effects of the crisis. The difference this time is that we do not face a standard deflationary threat, but a stagflationary one. It’s a completely different ballgame.

Calls for recession are ample from the mainstream financial media and many alternative analysts, though the assumption among many is that price inflation will track down as the recession pressures grow. This may not be the case.

Loss of buying power in the dollar due to central bank stimulus and numerous supply chain issues indicate an extended period of price inflation well into next year. Furthermore, with foreign central banks now incrementally dropping the dollar as the world reserve currency, there will be even more dollars flooding into the US from overseas. That’s too many dollars chasing too few goods and services.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Inflation Crisis Is Worse Than Admitted – Will Interest Rates Go To Record Highs?

June 11, 2022

The Inflation Crisis Is Worse Than Admitted – Will Interest Rates Go To Record Highs?

Inflation is not a new problem in the US; there has been a steady expansion of price inflation and a devaluation of the dollar ever since the Federal Reserve was officially made operational in 1916. This inflation is easily observed by comparing the prices of commodities and necessities from a few decades ago to today.

The median cost of a home in 1960 was around $11,900, which is the equivalent of $98,000 today. In the year 2000, the median home price rose to $170,000. Today, the average sale price for a home is over $400,000 dollars. Inflation apologists will argue that wages are keeping up with prices; this is simply not true and has not been true for a long time.

In today’s terms, a certain measure of home price increases involve artificial demand created by massive conglomerates like Blackstone buying up distressed properties. We can also place some blame on the huge migration of Americans out of blue states like New York and California during the pandemic lockdowns. However, prices were rising exponentially in many markets well before covid.

Americans have been dealing with higher prices and stagnant wages for some time now. This is often hidden or obscured by creative government accounting and the way inflation is communicated to the public through CPI numbers. This is especially true after the inflationary crisis of the late 1970s and early 1980s under the Carter Administration and Fed Chairman Paul Volcker.

It’s important to understand that CPI today is NOT an accurate reflection of true inflation overall, and this is because the methods used by the Fed and other institutions to calculate inflation changed after the 1970s event. Not surprisingly, CPI was adjusted to show a diminished inflation threat. If you can’t hide the price increases, you can at least lie about the gravity of those increases.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Putin Says US Decision To Print Money Is Behind Soaring Food Prices

June 3, 2022

Putin Says US Decision To Print Money Is Behind Soaring Food Prices

Earlier, we reported on the deranged, confused, false ramblings of a senile old man who is so out of his depth in running the world’s biggest economy, the catastrophic results will soon be obvious to even his most die-hard fans. Now, it’s time for his nemesis on the world scene, Russia’s Vladimir Putin to respond.

Speaking in a TV interview on Friday evening, following a meeting with African leaders in Sochi, Putin accused Western leaders of trying “to shift the responsibility for what is happening in the world food market” and said that “restrictions imposed by the US and its allies against Russia and Belarus will only exacerbate the looming global food crisis by affecting fertilizer trade and sending the food prices further up.”

Instead of looking toward Russian, Putin said that the root causes of the crisis lie with the US decision to print record amounts of money which led to an increase in global food prices, as well as Europe’s over-reliance on renewables and short-term gas contracts, which have led to price hikes and rising inflation.

“It began to take shape as early as February 2020 in the process of combating the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic,” he added.

High gas prices, the direct result of Europe’s catastrophic green/ESG policies which as we warned one year ago would spawn energy hyperinflation, resulting in under-investment in the traditional energy sector, have forced many fertilizer producers to shut down their businesses because of unprofitability; such developments have shrunk the fertilizer supply, which, in turn, has sent the food prices up, he added. This is another topic we have discussed extensively in the past (see our Oct 2021 article “Fertilizer Prices Hit Record Highs, May Pressure Food Inflation Even Higher“), and yes, Putin is correct again.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Handbook for Debt-Soaked Nations: Lie, Print, Inflate & Finger-Point

June 3, 2022

The Handbook for Debt-Soaked Nations: Lie, Print, Inflate & Finger-Point

Below we consider the classic (and oh-so predictable) tactics of debt-soaked nations facing a showdown (corner) between tanking markets and ripping inflation.

Ultimately, I see a stagflationary end-game in which both occur, but for the near-term, prepare for more inflation, as it’s the option all debt-soaked sovereigns are eternally forced to take.

The Cruelest Month

T.S. Elliot famously described April as the cruelest month, but the recent (and ever-unfolding) events of May seem far crueler.

As we have warned from the very onset of this otherwise avoidable war in Ukraine, the backfiring of Western sanctions against Putin (de-dollarization, inflationary tailwinds and increasingly discredited central banks) were not only plain to foresee, but placed the West in an almost comical (yet tragic) scenario in which nations like Germany find themselves sending weapons to the Ukraine while simultaneously sending Rubles to Putin.

How did the world become so hypocritical, dishonest, cornered and silly?

(Cold) Economic Realism vs. (Empty) Moral Posturing

As George Washington observed in a 1770’s moment of Realpolitik candor: “Nations have no permanent friends nor permanent enemies, just permanent interests.”

Turning to 2022, the self-interested reality of Western reliance on Russian energy has made their front-page virtue signaling a bit less virtuous…

Such cold realism explains why Italian Prime Minster Draghi realistically confessed as early as May 11 that EU companies could pay for Russian gas in Rubles in the very same week German Chancellor Olaf Scholz realistically opposed any immediate halting of oil imports from Russia.

Meanwhile, by May 12, the headlines revealed that Russian oil revenues had increased YoY by 50% despite the Western “boycott.”

An equally realistic Japan, like Germany, will take its time to phase-out its dependence on Russian energy, as it, like Germany, recognizes that an immediate G-7 boycott of Russian oil and gas amounts to little more than an energy suicide pact.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold As Cheap Today As In 1971 At $35

May 19, 2022

GOLD AS CHEAP TODAY AS IN 1971 AT $35

“Specie (gold and silver coin) is the most perfect medium because it will preserve its own level, because having intrinsic and universal value, it can never die in our hands, and it is the surest resource of reliance in time of war.” – Thomas Jefferson

Since no current President or Prime Minister nor any Central Bank Chairman understands what money is or the relevance of gold, we turn above back to history and Thomas Jefferson, America’s third president for a proper definition.

Jefferson also understood that “Paper is Poverty, It is only the Ghost of Money, and not Money itself.”

As the world economy goes towards an inflationary depression exacerbated not only by epic debts and deficits but now also by war, the significance of gold takes on a whole different dimension.

So let’s dissect Jefferson’s statement:

“(GOLD) Will preserve its own level”

Gold is Constant Purchasing Power. As such, gold doesn’t go up in real terms. An ounce of gold today buys a good suit for a man just like it did in Roman times.

The graph below shows gold as constant purchasing power at the 100 line whilst all the currencies are crashing to the bottom.

All currencies are continuing to lose value against real money although it never takes place in a straight line. With higher interest rates & inflation, higher deficits & debts, poverty, cost of wars and increasing pressures in the financial system, the currency debasement will now accelerate.

Gold is not an investment. Gold is eternal money. As such gold maintains its REAL value whereas paper money loses all its value over time. For 5000 years gold has outlived all other forms of money including paper money.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

David Stockman on the Coming Stock Market Crash of Biblical Proportions

April 8, 2022

David Stockman on the Coming Stock Market Crash of Biblical Proportions

International Man: Whether we like it or not, the reality is, the Federal Reserve has an enormous influence over the dollar and the stock market.

And right now, the Fed has an urgent and fateful decision to make.

It can keep printing trillions of dollars, let inflation skyrocket or tighten monetary policy, and watch the stock market crash.

In other words, it can sacrifice the stock market or the dollar.

David, what do you think the Fed will do, and what are the implications?

David Stockman: Well, I think whether it wants to or not, the Fed will crash the stock market. The Fed has painted itself into a hellacious corner because it’s made such a fetish out of its 2% inflation target, especially since January 2012, when it officially adopted this quantitative target.

In fact, most of the massive money printing, which has occurred since 2012, when the economy was pretty much recovered from the Great Recession anyway, has been justified by an inflation shortfall, which wasn’t true, but that was the justification.

They were trying to raise inflation and therefore felt that they could keep quantitative easing at these huge rates, including $120 billion per month, until recently. And as a result, we’re now in a world in which inflation is heading towards double digits.

I think they’re going to have no choice but to throw on the brakes much harder than the market is expecting, much harder than they would like to do, or maybe even intend at the moment, but there’s no choice.

Now, when you have double-digit inflation, number one and second, you’re going into what’s going to be a nasty election season in which the Republicans will finally see hope for their salvation in a horrendous battle on the inflation front blaming the Democrats and Biden.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Turning The Wealth Pyramid Upside Down

March 11, 2022

Turning The Wealth Pyramid Upside Down

When we look at upside down wealth pyramid at the left, I have a big problem with the picture it promotes. It is clearly based on someone’s opinion of what investments are safe. The one thing it does well is to scream that some investments have a high degree of risk and it is best not to put all our eggs in the same basket.

Another issue is how a 401 or pension will fare during hard times or if we do see a huge number of defaults. Consider this an indication that placing your wealth into paper promises means it has the potential to vanish or be converted into something to would never agree to. Again, the devil is in the small print or the fact “they” can change the rules at any time.

While a great deal of speculation has been showered upon us concerning inflation turning to deflation, we will not know the true direction of things until they occur. One thing to keep in mind is that government employs a tremendous number of people that will never accept a cut in pay. This will put a solid net under falling prices. Combined with the refusal of many workers to consider working for anything near minimum wage helps push away the notion of deflation. In fact today, my local paper announced the City Council in Fort Wayne, Indiana just approved retroactive COVID-19 hazard bonuses for all city workers.

It is important to move towards forecasting based on probability rather than predictions. Keep in mind a great deal of how we deal with the options before us is centered on how we position ourselves…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ukraine and the Next Wave of Inflation, Part I

March 11, 2022

Ukraine and the Next Wave of Inflation, Part I

Inflation from Useless Ingredients

The cause of rising prices is not always monetary. Before Covid, we wrote a lot about mandatory useless ingredients. This is when regulators and taxinators force producers to add things to their products, which buyers do not care about (and often do not know about).

There has been a steady march of added useless ingredients over the decades. But, like watching a child grow taller every day, you may not always think about the big change compared to five years ago (or 50 years ago, in the case of useless ingredients). It would be very difficult to estimate how much useless ingredients have added to the prices of each good.

How much do all the required airbags add to the cost of every new car? How many costs are added by all the emissions gizmos, and safety devices? The same is going on, in the fuel you pump into the car, the tires you drive on, and everything you put in the trunk when you go shopping.

The cost of these useless ingredients is high and rising. Before Covid, this was the biggest driver of inflation.

Image via rte.ie

Inflation from Trade War

For a few years prior to the virus, another driver began to emerge. Trade war. For us, this is a broader term than just tariffs. Though, there have been many tariffs added in recent years. Some readers may assume these are targeted at China due to its military threat, but there have been American tariffs imposed on Scotch whiskey, Canadian lumber, and many other things. Like useless ingredients, the consumer is often unaware of tariffs and how they drive up the price of the 2×4’s they buy. So they assume that the cause is simple money printing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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