Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCII–
Hydrocarbons: Our Finite, Master Energy Resource and the Implications Of Its Peak For Modernity

Sun setting on an oil field.

If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.

I’m finding that Large Language Models (LLMs) are a fantastic tool for skimming large amounts of information and summarising what it has scanned–it might take me hours/days/weeks to locate, access, read, interpret, summarise in my own words, and then review multiple times for grammar/spelling/flow of thought/etc. a fraction of the data that these computer programmes can take seconds to do. As such, I’ve spent some time using one for the purpose of following some thoughts on Peak Oil, a topic that I have been interested in for 15+ years and continue to keep at the forefront of my thinking when interpreting world events and attempting to better understand our modern, complex societies.

As I’ve asserted repeatedly, energy is everything. Nothing exists without it and it is most certainly fundamental to human complex societies–the more energy we have available and use, the larger and more complex our societies and their various systems become. Yes, our ingenuity and technological prowess have helped us create and build these complexities, but it is all underpinned by energy of one form or another and we have repeatedly leveraged energy to support our various adaptations, technologies, and massive expansion to most corners of our planet. 

Our modern world is dependent upon huge amounts of energy and in particular that provided by a finite cache of hydrocarbons. From an energy perspective hydrocarbons–particularly oil–are the commodity resource that should be considered humanity’s ‘master energy resource’; and it is one that appears irreplaceable given its energy-return-on-investments, density, transportability, and a variety of other characteristics that have led to its primacy in supporting our societal complexities.

And for better or worse, the waning days of this phenomenal and paramount energy resource are clearly in sight (or at least should be). So what are the implications of this for ‘Modernity’?

Let’s explore what the LLM Deepseek (DS) garners from the information it has access to regarding this hugely significant resource.

I asked the following five preparatory questions:

1. How much oil does the world use per day?
2. What percentage of oil reserves get extracted within 5-10 years of discovery?
3. What percentage of discovered oil reserves tend to end up as actually recoverable?
4. What percentage of recent oil production comes from unconventional sources?
5. What is the trend for new oil field discoveries for the past twenty years?

My culminating question based upon the responses to the above inquiries:

6. Given that: the world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day; only 10-30% of conventional oil fields, 20-50% of unconventional oil, and 5-15% of heavy oil can be recovered within 5-10 years of discovery; only 35-45% of conventional fields and 5-30% of unconventional oil is typically recovered; unconventional oil sources provide a significant and growing share of oil production; and that for the past twenty years new oil discoveries have failed to keep up with demand, what are the implications for modern, complex societies?

The response to this last question begins by stating: “The implications of these trends for modern, complex societies are profound, touching on energy security, economic stability, geopolitics, and environmental sustainability.” 

And DS concludes: “Modern societies built on cheap, abundant oil face a decade of reckoning. The choices made now—between clinging to fossil fuels or aggressively transitioning—will determine whether the 21st century sees managed adaptation or chaotic collapse.” (You can find the full responses to my questions directly below my opening comments.)

First, ‘profound’ would be one way to describe what Peak Oil portends for our societies. The peaking and subsequent shortfall in hydrocarbon extraction will send (is sending?) our current societal systems spinning in some very ‘interesting’ ways–including some Black Swan events that few, if any, can envision.

There’s a very good argument that this process began quite a number of years ago and has resulted in such ‘adaptations’ as significant expansion of manipulation/machination within impacted societal systems, especially our economic and geopolitical ones. And this will be/is particularly true for the current global hegemon (i.e., the US-NATO Empire) whose ‘power’ is greatly at risk as a result–continued expansion and control is virtually impossible without massive energy resources to support them.

Second, while I disagree with the ‘solution’ (pursuit of an aggressive transition to ‘renewables’) proposed by DS–not that I asked for one–I am not surprised by it. 

LLMs base their ‘answers’ to questions upon the prompts that are inputted by the person performing the inquiry and the data/information they have access to. Most individuals and groups (including, but especially profit-driven industries, governments, and academic institutions) are firmly entrenched in the denial and bargaining phases of awareness concerning our energy-resource predicament, and they are the ones that have dominated our research, reporting, and conversations about the issue. 

As such, our media and public spaces are flooded with the narrative (and derivations of it) that human ingenuity and our technological prowess can ‘solve’ any ‘problem’ that we encounter–and those that can have leveraged this societal belief to extract ‘wealth’ and reinforced it at every opportunity. On top of this, most have not only been conditioned to believe this tale but want to believe desperately that it is true. So, it is not the least bit surprising that LLMs would ‘conclude’ that we can address the predicament of Peak Oil via our technology of ‘renewables’ and forthcoming ‘clean’ energy ‘breakthroughs’. (I can’t help but think of the saying “garbage in, garbage out”, or in this case: “hopium in, hopium out”.)

Whether you agree with DS’s proposed ‘solution’ to this predicament depends greatly upon your worldview/paradigm/schema/interpretive lens and the stage of awareness/grieving you find yourself presently within. If you do hold this story to be ‘true’, I recommend looking behind the curtain of the ‘renewables-will-save-us’ storyline and especially into the dark corners where is hidden the disastrous impacts upon our ecosystems of the production of these industrial products and their reliance upon massive hydrocarbon inputs.

To sum up the ‘risks’ and ‘solutions’ the LLM DS suggests regarding a peaking of oil resources [along with what I suspect may accompany each]:

-Hydrocarbon price volatility due to supply shocks and geopolitical conflict [expect deflection regarding what is causing price volatility and the ramping up of nationalism, warmongering, and othering in light of geopolitical tensions].

-Risk to economic systems as prices inflate due to higher energy costs [expect dramatic debt-/credit-based money ‘creation’ and significant price inflation–blamed on anything but waning hydrocarbon supplies, money ‘printing’, and wealth extraction by the ruling ‘elite’ and various snake oil salesmen].

-Escalating geopolitical tensions due to resource nationalisation and competition [even more nationalism, warmongering, and othering along with reasons for everyone (except the elite) to tighten their belts as we invest ever-greater amounts of resources into domestic resource exploration/extraction and the military–to help in accessing/controlling non-domestic resources].

-Technological adaptation to minimise reliance upon hydrocarbons [expect the narratives surrounding our ability to ‘solve’ hydrocarbon supply shocks to be ever-present and arguments for gargantuan monetary investments in these technologies and research around them; along with massive wealth gains for those connected to these–completely ‘justifiable’ because they’re ‘saving the world’]. 

-Increasing energy poverty, particularly for the already ‘disadvantaged/marginalised’ [expect those already suffering from our current socioeconomic and sociopolitical systems to take it on the chin even more while our ‘leaders’ argue that just the opposite will occur with our energy-security and military ‘investments’–in other words, even more pronounced socioeconomic inequality and increasing narrative management regarding this].

It’s certainly a fine mess we find ourselves caught up in. Prepare accordingly…

A handful of my recent Contemplations that touch on the subjects discussed above:

-Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future. March 28, 2025. Website     Medium     Substack

-Imperial Longevity, ‘Collapse’ Causes, and Resource Finiteness. March 7, 2025. Website     Medium     Substack 

-Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse? February 20, 2025. Website Medium     Substack

-‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 1. January 12, 2025. Website     Medium     Substack; Part 2. January 25. Website     Medium     Substack;  Part 3. January 31. Website     Medium     Substack

–US Peak Shale Oil & Gas: When the Walls Come Tumblin’ Down. December 30, 2024. Website Medium Substack

-Sorry, folks, but ‘renewables’ are NOT going to save humanity or the planet. December 1, 2024. Website      Medium      Substack 

–Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s), Part 1. October 7, 2024. Website    Medium    Substack; Part 2. October 15. Website    Medium    Substack;Part 3. October 23. Website     Medium     Substack; Part 4. October 28. Website     Medium     Substack

–‘Renewables’: The Great ‘Solution’ (NOT). August 20, 2024. Website     Medium     Substack

The detailed DeepSeek responses follow.

1. How much oil does the world use per day?

As of recent data (2023-2024), the world consumes approximately 100 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d). This figure includes all forms of petroleum liquids, such as crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and refinery processing gains.  =

Key Insights on Global Oil Consumption:

1. Top Consumers: 

   – United States (~20 mb/d)  

   – China (~15–16 mb/d)  

   – India (~5–6 mb/d)  

   – European Union (~13–14 mb/d combined)  

2. Demand Trends:  

   – Oil demand has been rising gradually, driven by emerging economies (Asia, Africa, Middle East).  

   – Developed nations are seeing slower growth due to energy transitions and efficiency improvements.  

3. Future Projections:  

   – The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC expect demand to peak between 2030–2040 as renewable energy and electric vehicles expand.  

   – Short-term demand remains strong due to industrial needs, aviation, and petrochemicals.  

2. What percentage of oil reserves get extracted within 5-10 years of discovery?

The percentage of oil reserves extracted within 5–10 years of discovery depends on several factors, including the type of reservoir, technology, economics, and geopolitical conditions. Here’s a general breakdown:

Typical Recovery Rates in Early Years  

1. Conventional Oil Fields (Easy-to-extract reserves):  

   – ~10–30% of the total recoverable reserves may be extracted in the first 5–10 years.  

   – Faster extraction occurs in large, high-pressure fields (e.g., Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar).  

   – Offshore and deepwater projects (e.g., Brazil’s pre-salt) may take longer due to complexity.  

2. Unconventional Oil (Shale, Tight Oil, Oil Sands):  

   – ~20–50% of reserves can be extracted quickly (within 5–10 years) due to hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling.  

   – However, shale wells decline rapidly (~60–70% in the first year), so continuous drilling is needed.  

3. Heavy Oil & Oil Sands (e.g., Canada’s Alberta):  

   – Only ~5–15% may be extracted in the first decade due to slower, energy-intensive extraction methods (e.g., steam-assisted gravity drainage).  

Key Factors Affecting Early Extraction  

– Technology: Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods (e.g., CO₂ injection) can speed up extraction.  

– Economics: High oil prices incentivize faster development.  

– Regulations: Strict environmental policies (e.g., Norway, U.S. offshore) may delay production.  

– Field Size: Giant fields (>1 billion barrels) take longer to develop but produce for decades.  

Long-Term vs. Short-Term Extraction 

– Most fields produce for 20–50 years, with peak output often 5–15 years after discovery.  

– Example: The Permian Basin (U.S.) saw rapid fracking-driven extraction, while deepwater fields (e.g., Guyana’s Stabroek) take ~5–7 years from discovery to first oil.  

3. What percentage of discovered oil reserves tend to end up as actually recoverable?

The percentage of discovered oil reserves that end up being actually recoverable depends on geological, technological, and economic factors. Here’s a breakdown of key concepts and estimates:

1. Definitions  

– Original Oil in Place (OOIP): Total oil in a reservoir (100%).  

– Proved Reserves (1P): Oil that is ~90% likely to be recoverable with current tech/economics.  

– Recoverable Reserves: What can realistically be extracted over time (usually 30–60% of OOIP).  

2. Recovery Factors by Reservoir Type:

3. Why Isn’t 100% Recovered? 

– Physical Limitations: Oil sticks to rocks (residual saturation), and reservoirs lose pressure.  

– Economic Constraints: Extracting the last 20–30% may cost more than the oil’s value.  

– Technological Barriers:Some reserves (e.g., ultra-deep, Arctic) are too difficult with current tech.  

4. Industry Trends Improving Recovery  

– Digital Oilfields (AI, sensors) optimize extraction.  

– EOR Methods (CO₂ injection, microbes) push recovery rates higher.  

– Nanotechnology & Advanced Fracking** help tap more shale oil.  

5. Real-World Examples  

– Ghawar Field (Saudi Arabia): ~50–60% recovery (best-case conventional).  

– Permian Shale Wells: ~5–10% per well, but new drilling keeps reserves “replenished.”  

– Alberta Oil Sands: ~10–20% recovery via mining, up to ~30% with in-situ methods.  

Bottom Line  

Globally, only about 35–45% of discovered oil is typically recovered from conventional fields, with some EOR pushing it to 50–60% in ideal cases. Unconventional oil (shale, heavy oil) often recovers far less (5–30%).  

4. What percentage of recent oil production comes from unconventional sources?

As of recent data (2023–2024), unconventional oil sources (shale/tight oil, oil sands, and deepwater) contribute a significant and growing share of global oil production. Here’s the breakdown:  

Global Oil Production: Unconventional vs. Conventional

Key Trends

1. U.S. Dominance in Shale Oil  

   – The U.S. is the world’s **top oil producer**, thanks to fracking (shale/tight oil accounts for ~65% of U.S. production).  

   – The Permian Basin alone produces ~6–7 mb/d (more than most OPEC countries).  

2. Canada’s Oil Sands  

   – Alberta’s oil sands produce ~3.5–4 mb/d, but growth is slowing due to climate policies.  

3. Brazil’s Deepwater Boom  

   – Pre-salt fields (e.g., Tupi, Búzios) now produce ~2.5–3 mb/d, making Brazil a top-5 global producer.  

4. OPEC’s Declining Share  

   – Conventional oil (led by OPEC+) still dominates, but its market share has dropped from ~50% in 2000 to ~35–40% today due to the U.S. shale revolution.  

Future Outlook  

– Unconventional production (especially shale) will remain critical but faces challenges:  

  – Shale decline rates (wells lose ~60% of output in Year 1).  

  – Investment constraints (ESG pressures, fewer new drillings).  

– Deepwater and oil sands will grow moderately, while shale may peak in the 2030s.  

5. What is the trend for new oil field discoveries for the past twenty years?

Over the past 20 years (2004–2024), the trend in new oil field discoveries has shifted dramatically, with significant implications for global supply. Here’s a breakdown of key trends:

1. Declining Volume of Discoveries  

– 2000s (Peak Era):  

  – Annual discoveries averaged ~15–20 billion barrels (Gb) of oil equivalent (boe) in the early 2000s.  

  – Major finds: Kashagan (Kazakhstan, 2000), Tupi (Brazil pre-salt, 2006), Jubilee (Ghana, 2007).  

– 2010s (Sharp Drop):  

  – Discoveries fell to ~5–10 Gb/year, with a record low of ~4 Gb in 2016 (Rystad Energy).  

  – Reason: High exploration costs, focus on shale, and underinvestment in conventional drilling.  

– 2020s (Partial Recovery):  

  – Improved technology (AI, seismic imaging) boosted discoveries to ~8–12 Gb/year, but still below replacement levels.  

  – Recent giants: Guyana’s Stabroek Block (Exxon, 2015+), Namibia’s Venus (2022).  

2. Shift to Offshore & Unconventional  

– Deepwater/Ultra-Deepwater Dominance:  

  – ~60% of new reserves since 2010 came from offshore (Brazil, Guyana, Namibia).  

  – Example: Guyana’s discoveries (>11 Gb since 2015) now produce ~600,000 b/d (rising to 1.2+ mb/d by 2027).  

– Shale’s Short-Term Boom:  

  – U.S. tight oil surged but relies on reserve growth via drilling (not new field discoveries).  

  – Shale adds ~5–10 Gb/year in “technically recoverable” reserves but has steep decline rates.  

3. Smaller Average Field Size  

– Pre-2000: Average discovery size was ~500 million barrels (Mb).  

– Post-2010: Dropped to ~100 Mb, with fewer “elephant” fields (>1 Gb).  

– Exceptions:  

  – Guyana (Exxon’s Stabroek: 11 Gb+**).  

  – Namibia (TotalEnergies’ Venus: **~3 Gb+**).  

4. Replacement Ratio Crisis  

– Global oil consumption:~35–40 Gb/year.  

– Discoveries vs. Demand:  

  – Only ~20–30% of consumed oil was replaced by new discoveries in the past decade.  

  – The industry now relies more on reserve growth in existing fields (e.g., EOR, shale drilling). 

     5. Future Outlook  

– Offshore Focus: Brazil, Guyana, Namibia, and the East Mediterranean will drive new supply.  

– Exploration Risks:  

  – ESG pressures limit investment in frontier regions (e.g., Arctic).  

  – National oil companies (NOCs) now dominate exploration (vs. shrinking major oil firm budgets).  

Key Takeaway  

New discoveries have failed to keep pace with demand since the 2010s, pushing the industry toward:  

1. Smaller, technically complex fields (deepwater, shale).  
2. Lower-carbon extraction (methane reduction, CCUS).  
3. Geopolitical shifts (Guyana/Namibia rising, Middle East stabilizing).  

6. Given that: the world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day; only 10-30% of conventional oil fields, 20-50% of unconventional oil, and 5-15% of heavy oil can be recovered within 5-10 years of discovery; only 35-45% of conventional fields and 5-30% of unconventional oil is typically recovered; unconventional oil sources provide a significant and growing share of oil production; and that for the past twenty years new oil discoveries have failed to keep up with demand, what are the implications for modern, complex societies?

The implications of these trends for modern, complex societies are profound, touching on energy security, economic stability, geopolitics, and environmental sustainability. Here’s a breakdown of the key challenges and potential outcomes:

1. Energy Security & Supply Crunches  

– Growing Demand vs. Stagnant Discoveries:  

  – The world consumes ~35–40 billion barrels/year, but discoveries replace only 20–30% of that.  

  – Result: Dependence on existing fields (many in decline) and unconventional sources (costly, finite).  

– Geopolitical Vulnerabilities:  

  – Reliance on a shrinking number of producers (OPEC+, U.S. shale, Guyana, Brazil) increases price volatility.  

  – Conflicts or underinvestment could trigger supply shocks (e.g., 1970s-style crises).  

2. Economic Risks  

– Higher Oil Prices:  

  – Tighter supply + rising demand (especially from Asia) could push prices above $100/barrel long-term.  

  – Inflationary pressure on transport, manufacturing, and food production.  

– Shale’s Limits:  

  – U.S. tight oil has peaked in prime basins (Permian growth slowing by 2030s).  

  – Fracking requires continuous drilling—capital and labor shortages could disrupt output.  

3. Geopolitical Shifts  

– New Power Centers:  

  – Guyana, Brazil, and Namibia gain influence; traditional producers (Saudi Arabia, Russia) face budget strains.  

– Resource Nationalism:  

  – Countries may hoard reserves (e.g., Mexico’s PEMEX reforms, Venezuela’s sanctions battles).  

– Energy Wars:  

  – Competition over remaining resources (Arctic, South China Sea) could escalate tensions.  

4. Industrial & Technological Adaptation  

– Efficiency & Substitution:  

  – Airlines, shipping, and petrochemicals will face scarcity-driven innovation (e.g., biofuels, hydrogen).  

  – Electric vehicles (EVs) reduce transport demand but won’t offset industrial/oil-heavy sectors fast enough.  

– Enhanced Recovery:  

  – AI, robotics, and nanotechnology may squeeze 5–15% more oil from old fields, delaying collapse.  

5. Societal & Environmental Strains  

– Energy Poverty:  

  – Rising prices disproportionately hit low-income households (heating, transportation costs).  

– Climate Trade-Offs:  

  – Societies may delay decarbonization to secure oil (e.g., Europe’s post-Ukraine coal revival).  

  – Or accelerate renewables if oil shocks become frequent (1970s spurred nuclear/solar investments).  

6. Potential Scenarios 

   1. “Muddling Through” (Most Likely)

– Oil prices oscillate between $80–150/barrel, driving slow adoption of alternatives.  

– Repeated supply crunches spur stop-gap measures (coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids).  

         2. Crisis & Collapse  

– A major geopolitical disruption (e.g., war in the Gulf) triggers global recession.  

– Shortages cripple logistics chains (food, medicines) and destabilize governments.

          3. Rapid Transition

– Oil shocks force WWII-scale mobilization into renewables, nuclear, and synthetic fuels.  

– Cities redesign transport (walkability, EVs), industries pivot to circular economies.  

Key Takeaways for Policymakers & Businesses  

1. Diversify Energy Mix: Fast-track renewables, nuclear, and hydrogen to reduce oil dependence.  
2. Strategic Reserves: Expand stockpiles for supply disruptions.  
3. Demand Reduction: Mandate efficiency (CAFE standards, industrial electrification).  
4. Geopolitical Alliances: Secure partnerships with stable producers (e.g., U.S.-Guyana ties).  

Bottom Line  

Modern societies built on cheap, abundant oil face a decade of reckoning. The choices made now—between clinging to fossil fuels or aggressively transitioning—will determine whether the 21st century sees managed adaptation or chaotic collapse. 

Exploring questions of the impact upon the planet’s ecosystems of the proposed ‘solution’ of an aggressive transition to ‘renewables’ is fodder for a future Contemplation…

What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better. 

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”

If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).

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You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.

AND

Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2

A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.

With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.

The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.

Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.