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Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto

October 15, 2020

Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto Pandemic politics highlight how predictions need to be transparent and humble to invite insight, not blame. Illustration by David Parkins The COVID-19 pandemic illustrates perfectly how the operation of science changes when questions of urgency, stakes, values and uncertainty collide — in the ‘post-normal’ regime. […]

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Can we Predict Collapses Before they Happen? What we Learned from the Pandemic

October 15, 2020

Can we Predict Collapses Before they Happen? What we Learned from the Pandemic    My 2019 book “Before the Collapse.” In it, I examined several scenarios of the future of humankind. Was I able to predict the current pandemic? Of course not in the details, but I think that I did note an important facet […]

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A question you always wanted to ask but you never had the time to: Is the “EROI” of energy studies the same as the R factor in epidemiology?

June 4, 2020

A question you always wanted to ask but you never had the time to: Is the “EROI” of energy studies the same as the R factor in epidemiology? There is a certain logic in the way the universe works and so it is not surprising that the same models can describe phenomena that seem to […]

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The problem with models…is getting stuck on just one

September 24, 2018

The problem with models…is getting stuck on just one Alfred Korzybski, the father of general semantics, first uttered what must now seem like a well-worn phrase: “The map is not the territory.” And yet, I don’t think this view has yet been well-incorporated into human culture. In a time when social media outlets are trying […]

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Time For Some Climate Honesty

August 4, 2018

kienyke.com Time For Some Climate Honesty Half-truths are doing no good Let’s assume that you have doubts about ‘global warming’. Some people do and, truthfully, we utterly lack the ability to accurately model how much warming will happen, where and by when (emphasis on accurately). The reason is not for lack of trying or continual learning […]

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Closing the Gap between the Science and Politics of Progress

February 13, 2018

Closing the Gap between the Science and Politics of Progress Ed.note: This article draws on a paper published this month in the international journal, Social Indicators Research. The paper is available on Richard’s website, www.richardeckersley.com.au Global politics is based on an outmoded and increasingly destructive model of human progress and development. Can science change a […]

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Why Models Fail

January 2, 2018

Why Models Fail   QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Did AIG use the Black-Scholes Model and that is what created the crisis again in 2007? WJ ANSWER: No. It’s my understanding that AIG developed different models, they called a “Value-at-Risk Model,” (VaR) which used a binomial-expansion-technique to start valuing their positions. I believe the original model was developed at Moody’s. However, […]

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What Should Be the Criteria for Model Selection?

October 20, 2017

WHAT SHOULD BE THE CRITERIA FOR MODEL SELECTION? In order to make the data “talk,” economists utilize a range of statistical methods that vary from highly complex models to a simple display of historical data. It is generally held that by means of statistical correlations one can organize historical data into a useful body of […]

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How Bad Can This Get, And How Fast?

October 3, 2015

How Bad Can This Get, And How Fast? There’s so much negative real bad economic and financial news out there that it’s hard to choose a ‘favorite’, but I guess I’m going to have to go with what underlies and ‘structures’ it all, the IIF stating that for the first time since 1988 and the […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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