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“The Federal Reserve Is Clearly Trapped”: Lawrence Lepard
“The Federal Reserve Is Clearly Trapped”: Lawrence Lepard
Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter this week.
Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter this week. He gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.
Larry was kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts heading into Q2 2024. The letter has been edited ever-so-slightly for formatting, grammar and visuals.
QUARTERLY OVERVIEW
Globally, the stock markets continued their 45-degree angle rise during the first quarter. Crude oil, and commodities broadly, also had a stair-step rise consistently during the quarter. Gold and silver and the miners were an interesting dichotomy. Bullion prices were flat to slightly down in January and February, and the miners were clobbered during those early months of Q1. However, in March the price of gold broke through the long-standing $2,070 ceiling and the miners responded, driving the Fund up by 25.4%. Gold miner indices were down 17% in the first two months before the March move.
Note that the gold mining stocks still have not provided any leverage to the price of gold. In fact, in the first quarter they did not even keep pace with the increase in the price of gold. With gold up 8.1% in the quarter, the gold mining indices were up 2%. Typically, gold miners provide 2x to 3x leverage in terms of returns; so with gold up 8%, the miners would typically have been up 16% to 24%. This supports our thesis that the miners are still undervalued and are going to mean revert with a vengeance as this bull market in gold continues. The gold mining shares have a long way to go before they reflect fair value.
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Cracks In The World Economy Are Starting To Show
Cracks In The World Economy Are Starting To Show
Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter this week, with his updated take on the monetary miasma spreading across the globe.
For those that missed it, Larry also talked with me on my podcast just days ago. I believe him to truly be one of the muted voices that the investing community would be better off for considering. He’s the type of voice that gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.
Larry was kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts heading into Q4 2022. The letter has been edited ever-so-slightly for formatting, grammar and visuals.
This is Part 1 of his letter. Part 2 can be found here.
In the third quarter, virtually all asset classes went for a roller coaster ride – a sharp bear market rally in July and August, followed by a vicious sell off in September as the Fed continued its Hawkish tone at Jackson Hole in late August and then raised the Fed Funds rate in September to 3.00-3.25%. Recall that as recently as February 2022 Fed Funds was at 0.0-0.25%.
Year to date through 9/30/22, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down -24% and – 33%, respectively. Gold and Gold Miners (GDXJ) are down -9% and -30% year to date, respectively. Bloomberg’s US Aggregate Bond Index is down -15%. Only the Bloomberg Commodity Index (broad commodities like oil that are benefiting from inflation) is up year to date (+13.5%).
The Fed’s hawkishness has caused an enormous amount of wealth destruction. As the chart below shows, US stocks and bonds have created a drawdown of $18 Trillion in the US equity and fixed income markets, far worse than 2008 and 2020’s market value destruction….
…click on the above link to read the rest…
Putin Knows The Monetary System Is A Credit Based Ponzi Scheme: Lawrence Lepard
Putin Knows The Monetary System Is A Credit Based Ponzi Scheme: Lawrence Lepard
Larry also lays out 4 key catalysts for higher gold, silver and bitcoin prices.
Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter a few days ago with his updated take on the seismic changes occurring in monetary policy globally as a result of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
He takes us through history as to how this landscape has changed in the past, and what could be coming in years ahead.
Larry had joined me for several interviews last year and I believe him to truly be one of the muted voices that the investing community would be better off for considering. He’s the type of voice that gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.
Larry was kind enough to allow me to share his most recent thoughts. Part 2 is below and Part 1 can be found at this link.
In Part 1, Larry reminded us of the history and structure of the world monetary system, starting in 1944 and ending in 1980, and how he uses that to make his investment decisions.
In Part 2, he picks up around 1980 and discusses current problems the Fed has.
1980-Present Gold Market
In the chart below, you can see the effect that Paul Volcker’s policies had on the dollar price of gold. By pushing interest rates up to 20%, he managed to cool inflation and ultimately stop it. This brought the gold price back to the $260 to $400 range where it lived for quite some time.
The 1980’s and 1990s were marked by a period of dis-inflation and ultimately deflation given technological innovations and productivity gains from Microsoft, Intel and the like in the 1980s, and then the Internet in the 1990s…
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“We’re Near The Very End”: Lawrence Lepard On Bitcoin, Gold & The Coming Crash
“We’re Near The Very End”: Lawrence Lepard On Bitcoin, Gold & The Coming Crash
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
This is part 1 of an exclusive Fringe Finance interview with fund manager Lawrence Lepard, where we discuss the state of the economy, gold, bitcoin, catastrophic outcomes for the market, the supply chain in the country and more.
Larry manages the EMA GARP Fund, a Boston based investment management firm. Their strategy is focused on providing “Monetary Debasement Insurance”. He has 38 years experience and an MBA from Harvard Business School. On Twitter he is @LawrenceLepard.
Q: Hi, Larry. Thanks for joining me today. I wrote earlier this week about why I thought the NASDAQ could be primed for a crash. Let’s get right into it off the bat: what do you think could be the most likely catalyst for a market crash right now?
A: Very hard to say, think of it as like an avalanche. What snowflake is going to be the last one before it breaks free?
The market is insanely overvalued, but until now has proven that what is insane can become more insane. So you can’t short it. Frankly all price signals are broken and we could be in a “crack up boom”.
I do see signs of weakness (Evergrande, yield curve heading toward inversion, Fed reducing QE won’t help). Personally I think we are near the end and close to a crash, but I have thought that for some time and have obviously been wrong.
Inflation coming in hot and being persistent is probably the most likely catalyst. Inflation will reduce profit margins and will make the current multiples look even more insane. Catalyst: psychology changes. Technically upward momentum has slowed. I think we are very near the end.
What do you think could be the LEAST noticed cause for a crash?
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