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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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With the future of the EU-UK relationship shrouded in uncertainty and crises brewing in France, Italy, and elsewhere, 2019 will be another difficult year for Europe. And if populist forces prevail in the European Parliament election in May, it could be an impossible one.
BERLIN – The start of 2016 has been anything but calm. Falling equity prices in China have destabilized markets worldwide. Emerging economies seem to have stalled. The price of oil has plunged, pushing petroleum producers into crisis. North Korea is flexing its nuclear muscles. And in Europe, the ongoing refugee crisis is fomenting a toxic tide of nationalism, which threatens to tear the European Union apart. Add to this Russia’s neo-imperial ambitions and the threat of Islamic terrorism, and comets streaking across the sky may be the only thing missing from a picture of a year shaping up to be one of prophetic doom.
Wherever one looks, chaos seems to be ascendant. The international order forged in the fires of the twentieth century seems to be disappearing, and we have not had even the faintest glimpse of what will replace it.
It is not difficult to put names to the challenges we face: globalization, digitization, climate change, and so forth. What is not clear is the context in which the response will come – if at all. In which political structures, by whose initiative, and under which rules will these questions be negotiated – or, if negotiation proves impossible, fought over?
Political and economic order – particularly on a global scale – does not simply arise from peaceful consensus or an unchallenged claim by the most powerful. It has always been the result of a struggle for domination – often brutal, bloody, and long – between or among rival powers. Only through conflict are the new pillars, institutions, and players of a new order established.
The liberal Western order in place since the end of World War II was based on the global hegemony of the United States. As the only true global power, it was dominant not only in the realm of hard military power (as well as economically and financially), but in nearly all dimensions of soft power (for example, culture, language, mass media, technology, and fashion).
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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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BERLIN – From a European perspective, 2019 promises to be another difficult year, dominated by large challenges that could easily turn into menacing crises. Barring a major reversal, the United Kingdom will withdraw from the European Union on March 29. A brewing economic and financial crisis in Italy will intensify, threatening the stability of the eurozone. And France will likely remain beset by populist protests, diminishing its potential to take a lead role in the pursuit of EU-level reforms.
Moreover, the European Parliament election in May could well deliver a nationalist majority or near-majority, which would then determine the next members of the European Commission, the leaders of the European Council and European Central Bank, and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Needless to say, a nationalist victory would be a disaster for the EU, because it would derail necessary reforms and further divide member states.
Whatever happens, Europe’s internal political drama will play out against a backdrop of international turmoil. At the same time that Russia is stepping up its aggression in eastern Ukraine, US President Donald Trump is waging a trade war against China, and could expand it to the EU (which he has deemed a “foe”). And, more broadly, the global economy is weakening, and growth will continue to slow in the months ahead.
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