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Saudi Arabia Continues to Ramp Up Oil Output in Face of Market Glut

Saudi Arabia Continues to Ramp Up Oil Output in Face of Market Glut

Saudi Arabia increased its exports of oil during October, shipping out more crude than it had in the previous four months, aggravating a supply glut that has severely depressed oil prices and revenues to oil producers.

But the desert kingdom reportedly is working on a strategy to rework its economy in part through spending reforms and privatizing state-owned industries in an effort to weather what it sees as a temporary drop in oil’s value.

Crude exports from Saudi Arabia rose from an average of 7.111 million barrels per day in September to 7.364 million per day in October, according to the latest data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), which monitors the oil industry. The report said this quantity was the most oil exported from Saudi Arabia since June and 7 percent higher than in October 2014.

It was Saudi Arabia that persuaded OPEC in November 2014 not to lower its production ceiling from 30 million barrels a day to help shore up oil prices, and, on Dec. 4, 2015 to dispense with a ceiling altogether. This has been an effort to keep prices low enough temporarily to reclaim market share from rivals such as Russia and the United States, with higher-cost production technologies.

This has led to some financial pain for OPEC countries. Not only are less affluent OPEC members such as Venezuela hurt by the lower oil prices, but even rich Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia, began to feel the pinch almost immediately and revise the projected revenues of their budgets for the fiscal year 2015.

And on Oct. 30, the U.S. financial services company Standard & Poors (S&P), citing a “pronounced negative swing” in Saudi finances due to lower oil revenues, cut its rating of the Saudi sovereign debt to A+/A-1 from AA-/A-1+, and said its outlook for Saudi Arabia remains negative.

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JODI Data and Giant Field Depletion

JODI Data and Giant Field Depletion

No, U.S. Oil Production Probably Didn’t Rise in July

The Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) releases monthly oil supply-and-demand data for about 80 countries, which it gathers by directly surveying the countries. It is widely cited by analysts, especially for its figures on demand, imports and exports.

The latest JODI data released Sunday showed that U.S. crude-oil production rose from 9.3 million barrels a day in June to 9.5 million barrels in July.

But the EIA’s latest forecast called for July production to fall to 9.2 million barrels a day in July, continuing the trend of declining U.S. production as companies cut spending in the face of low prices.

For the charts below I have used JODI data for all Non-OPEC nations except those that do not report to JODI. For them I use the EIA data and carry forward the same data that the EIA reported, (April). For the USA, since the JODI data is obviously wrong for July, I simply carried forward the June data which also came directly from the EIA. And for OPEC I use the OPEC MOMR’s “secondary sources”. JODI also uses the MOMR for their data but uses the “direct communication” data instead of the secondary sources data.

The data below is through July 2015 and is in thousand barrels per day.

JODI World C+C

In July we remained at or near the world’s all time peak at 75,631,000 barrels per day, down just 15,000 bpd from June.

JODI Non-OPEC

JODI Non-OPEC stood at 44,100,000 bpd in July, down 567,000 bpd from the peak in December.

 

 

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