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Nine “Fascinating” Stats About Inflation

September 19, 2018

Nine “Fascinating” Stats About Inflation

In a report on the history (and future) of inflation from Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, the credit strategist notes that while it may not feel like it, but we live in inflationary times relative to long-term history.

Before the start of the twentieth century prices generally crept higher only very slowly over time and were indeed often flat for very long periods. For example in the UK the overall price level was broadly unchanged between 1800 and 1938. However, inflation moved higher everywhere across the globe at numerous points in the twentieth century. UK prices since 1938 have increased by a multiple of 50 (+4885%) and of the 25 countries with continuous inflation data back to 1900, the UK is one of only 5 countries in the sample not to experience extreme inflation (defined as >25% YoY) in a given year. Of these 25 countries only Holland (3.0%), Canada (3.0%), the US (3.0%) and Switzerland (2.1%) have seen average annual inflation at 3% or below.

As shown in the chart below, while inflation was virtually non-existent until the 20th century, all of that changed once the Federal Reserve was created…

And while we will discuss in a follow up post Reid’s observations on just “what changed in the twentieth century”, below we list some “fascinatingf stats” about inflation as we thank the central bankers for unleashing this most powerful economic force on the face of the planet.

From Deutsche Bank:

  1. No country has seen average annual inflation below 2% since 1971 when we moved to a global fiat currency system (87 in our sample), only 28 averaged less than 5%. No country has seen annual average inflation below 2% since 1900 (25 in our sample) and only 4 between 2-3%.
  2. UK prices (longest history we have) were more or less unchanged between 1800 and 1938 but have subsequently risen by a stunning multiple of 50 times (4885%) in the 80 years since this point. In the 728 years between 1210 and 1938 prices only rose 26 times.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deutsche Bank: This Does Not Make Sense

February 26, 2018

Deutsche Bank: This Does Not Make Sense

Amid the growing debate whether rates will keep rising once they hit 3.00%, or they will fall as asset managers find the new level attractive enough to dip their toes and buy duration, one analyst laughs at everyone calling for lower rates from here onward.

In a note published overnight, Deutsche Bank credit strategist Jim Reid writes that “rates and yields will continue to structurally move higher in the quarters and years ahead regardless of any short-term moves, and we hope policymakers won’t be derailed by the inevitable macro issues that this will bring.”

While we will share some more details from this note, the first in a series of why Deutsche believes that global yields have nowhere to go but up, we wanted to highlight one chart which according to Deustche does not make any sense in the context of the ongoing debate of potentially lower yields: the projection of global debt to GDP forecasts for the next 30 years.

According to Reid, “notwithstanding the short-term low supply expectations in Europe, a real head-scratcher going forward is how the market will cope over the years and even decades to come with the central case scenario of higher and higher government debt around the world. Figure 13 looks at the US, Germany and Japan government debt/GDP with forecasts from the US CBO and BIS.”

And here is the chart that is at the crux of Reid’s conundrum: this is the same chart which prompted Fed president Robert Kaplan to suggest that the US debt trajectory is headed toward unsustainability.

Reid’s summary:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deutsche Asks A Stunning Question: “Is This The Beginning Of The End Of Fiat Money?”

November 1, 2017

Deutsche Asks A Stunning Question: “Is This The Beginning Of The End Of Fiat Money?”

One month ago, Deutsche Bank’s unorthodox credit analyst, Jim Reid published a phenomenal report, one which just a few years ago would have been anathema, as it dealt with two formerly taboo topics: is a financial crisis coming (yes), and what are the catalysts that have led the world to its current pre-crisis state, to which Reid had three simple answers: central banks, financial bubbles and record amounts of debt. 

Just as striking was Reid’s nuanced observation that it was the modern fiat system itself that has encouraged and perpetuated the current boom-bust cycle, and was itself in jeopardy when the next crash hits:

We think the final break with precious metal currency systems from the early 1970s (after centuries of adhering to such regimes) and to a fiat currency world has encouraged budget deficits, rising debts, huge credit creation, ultra loose monetary policy, global build-up of imbalances, financial deregulation and more unstable markets.

The various breaks with gold based currencies over the last century or so has correlated well with our financial shocks/crises indicator. It shows that you are more likely to see crises/shocks when we break from hard currency systems. Some of the devaluation to Gold has been mindboggling over the last 100 years.

The implications of this allegation were tremendous, especially coming from a reputable professional who works in a company which only exists thanks to the current fiat regime: after all, much has been said about Deutsche Bank’s tens of trillions  in gross liabilities, mostly in the form of various rate derivatives, backed by hundreds of billions in deposits and, implicitly, the backstop of the German government as Deutsche Bank discovered the hard way one year ago.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“This Is Where The Next Financial Crisis Will Come From”

September 19, 2017

“This Is Where The Next Financial Crisis Will Come From”

In an extensive, must-read report published on Monday by Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, the credit strategist unveiled an extensive analysis of the “Next Financial Crisis”, and specifically what may cause it, when it may happen, and how the world could respond assuming it still has means to counteract the next economic and financial crash. In our first take on the report yesterday, we showed one key aspect of the “crash” calculus: between bonds and stocks, global asset prices are the most elevated they have ever been.

With that baseline in mind, what happens next should be obvious: unless one assumes that the laws of economics and finance are irreparably broken, a deep recession and a market crash are inevitable, especially after the third biggest and second longest central bank-sponsored bull market in history.

But what will cause it, and when will it happen?

Needless to say, these are the questions that everyone in capital markets today wants answered. And while nobody can claim to know the right answer, here are some excerpts from what DB’s Jim Reid, one of the best strategists on Wall Street, thinks will take place.

Below we present the key excerpts from his must read report;

* * *

We think that the post Bretton Woods (1971-) global financial system remains vulnerable to financial crises. A simple internet search of financial crises through history (Figure 1, LHS chart) confirms that the frequency has increased over this period. Examples include the UK secondary banking crisis (1975), the two Oil shocks (1970s), numerous EM defaults (mid-1980s), US Savings and Loans mass failures (late 80s/early 90s), various Nordic financial crises (late 80s), Japanese stock bubble bursting (1990-), various ERM shocks/devaluations (1992), the Mexican Tequila crisis (1994), the Asian crisis (1997), the Russian & LTCM crisis (1998), the Dot.com crash (2000), the various accounting scandals (02/03), the GFC (08/09) and the Euro Sovereign crisis (10-12).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Is The Endgame, According To Deutsche Bank

October 2, 2015

This Is The Endgame, According To Deutsche Bank

DB’s Jim Reid lays out the “endgame” scenario, one which this website first said is inevitable back in 2009. With Citi and Macquarie already on board, expect what was once merely the figment of a “deranged tinfoil conspiracy-theory blog’s” imagination, to become global monetary policy. And yes, the real endgame is the one we have said from day one: total fiat (and conventional economics) collapse.

* * *

From Deutsche Bank’s chief credit strateigst

Our thesis over the last few years has basically been that the global financial system/economic fundamentals are so bad that its good for financial assets given it forces central banks into extraordinary stimulus and for them to continue to buy assets in never before seen volumes. The system failed in 2008/09 and rather than allow a proper creative destruction cleansing, policy makers have been aggressively propping it up ever since. This has surely led to a large level of inefficiency in the system which helps explain weak post crisis growth and thus forces them to do even more thus supporting asset prices if not the global economy.

However since the summer this theory has been severely tested by China’s equity bubble bursting, China’s small ‘shock’ devaluation and the start of a rundown in reserves for the first time in over a decade. We’ve also seen associated commodities and EM woes, endless unsettling speculation about the Fed’s next move and more recently the idiosyncratic corporate scandal around VW and funding concerns around Glencore. The hits keep on coming. Is it now so bad it’s actually bad again?

The most recent leg of the sell-off begun after the Fed held rates steady two weeks ago as the narrative focused on either this reflecting worrying economic concerns or a Fed that is a slave to financial markets and losing credibility. So do we think we’re now entering a period where central banks are increasingly impotent?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Futures Soar On Hope Central Planners Are Back In Control, China Rollercoaster Ends In The Red

July 28, 2015

Futures Soar On Hope Central Planners Are Back In Control, China Rollercoaster Ends In The Red

For the first half an hour after China opened, things looked bleak: after opening down 5%, the Shanghai Composite staged a quick relief rally, then tumbled again. And then, just around 10pm Eastern, we saw acoordinated central bank intervention stepping in to give the flailing PBOC a helping hand, driven by the BOJ but also involving NY Fed members, that sent the USDJPY soaring which in turn dragged ES and most risk assets up with it. And while Shanghai did end up closing down -1.7%, with Shenzhen 2.2% lower at the close, the final outcome was far better than what could have been, with the result being that S&P futures have gone back to doing their thing, and have wiped out all of yesterday’s losses in the levitating, zero volume, overnight session which has long become a favorite setting for central banks buying E-Minis.

As Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow comments, the majority of Asian equity indexes finished with losses but on an upbeat note, helping most European markets to start with modest gains that have increased with the morning, thanks to the aforementioned domestic and global mood stabilization. S&P futures have been positive all day other than a brief dip negative at the worst of the day’s China levels. Chinese equities opened quite weak and were down another 5% before the authorities assured the market that speculation they would withdraw from market supportive measures was misguided. This began a rally of over 6% before a mid-afternoon swoon.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Soars Most Since 2009 After Government Threatens Short Sellers With Arrest, Global Stocks Surge

July 9, 2015

China Soars Most Since 2009 After Government Threatens Short Sellers With Arrest, Global Stocks Surge

Here is a brief sample of some of the measures the Chinese government and the PBOC have unleashed in just the past ten days to prop up the crashing market include:

  • a ban on major shareholders, corporate executives, directors from selling stock for 6 months
  • freezing more than half (1400 at last count per Bloomberg) of the listed companies from trading,
  • blocking fund redemptions, forcing companies to invest in the market,
  • halting IPOs,
  • reducing equity transaction fees,
  • providing daily bailouts to the margin lending authority,
  • reducing margin requirements,
  • boosting buybacks
  • endless propaganda by Beijing Bob.

The measures are summarized below.

But it wasn’t until last night’s first official threat to “malicious” (short) sellers that they face charges (i.e., arrest), as Xinhua reported yesterday:

[Ministry of Public Security in conjunction with the recent Commission investigation of malicious short stock and stock index clues ] correspondent was informed on the 9th morning , Vice Minister of Public Security Meng Qingfeng led to the Commission , in conjunction with the recent Commission investigation of malicious short stock and stock index clues show regulatory authorities to the operation of heavy combat illegal activities.

 

… that the wall of Chinese intervention finally worked. For now.

And since this is all about one thing, the stock, market, it is worth noting that the Shanghai Composite Index had dropped as much as 3.8% to a 4 month low before the news that the cops were going to arrest anyone who used a wrong discount rate in their DCF, when everything suddenly took off, and the SHCOMP closed  a “Dramamine required” 5.8% higher, the biggest daily increase since March 2009!

“As China beefs up its efforts to rescue the market, with even the public security ministry involved, market sentiment is recovering slightly from a panicky stage earlier,” Shenyin Wanguo analyst Qian Qimin says by phone

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Will Greek “Hope” Offset “Limit Down” Contagion From The “Frozen” China Crash

July 8, 2015

Will Greek “Hope” Offset “Limit Down” Contagion From The “Frozen” China Crash

Today’s market battle will be between those (central banks) “hoping” that a Greek deal over the weekend is finallyimminent (which on one hand looks possible after a major backpeddling by Tsipras – who may never have wanted to win the Greferendum in the first place – yesterday in Brussels and today during his speech in the Euro Parliament, but on the other will be a nearly impossible sell to Greece as any deal terms will be far harsher than the deal offered by the Troika 2 weeks ago and will have no debt reduction), and those who finally noticed that the Chinese central planners have effectively lost control.

For those who may have missed the overnight fireworks, here are some more indicative Bloomberg headlines about China:

  • China’s Stocks Plunge as State Intervention Fails to Stop Rout
  • China Freezes Trading in 1,300 Companies as Stock Market Tumbles
  • China’s State-Owned Firms Ordered Not to Cut Share Holdings
  • China’s Market Rescue Makes Matters Worse as Prices Lose Meaning
  • China Ramps Up Policy Response as Panic Grips Stock Market

While pundits have been eager to downplay what is now a historic rout in Chinese risk assets, one that is matched by the depression of 2008 and which has sent the SHCOMP from up 60% for the year 3 weeks ago to barely green losing some 15 Greeces in market cap since mid-June…

… the same pundits to whom neither the oil crash nor a Grexit nor the imminent collapse in Q2 corporate revenues and GAAP EPS, or anything else matters, the reality is that the Chinese stock rout is very clearly starting to have contagion effects on the rest of the economy, crashing commodities such as crude, gold, copper, iron and virtually everything else where China has been a marginal source of demand, but leading to forced selling of anything that is not nailed down.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

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