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The Fed Crying Has Begun

The Fed Crying Has Begun

So stocks dropped a little in October. Ok they actually dropped a lot and all of a sudden the S&P 500 was miles away from the all those optimistic 3,000+ year end targets. And what happens when stocks drop hard? Bulls cry for the Fed to come to the rescue.

It was quite the scene.

Here’s the global market cap wiped off in just October:

$8 TRILLION. Poof. Gone. The largest drop since 2008.

So it is no wonder the Fed begging has begun. From the president on down:


“If the Fed backs off and starts talking a little more Dovish, I think we’re going to be right back to our 2,800 to 2,900 target range that we’ve had for the S&P 500.” Scott Wren, Wells Fargo.


Jim Cramer: “My main fear is that we could have a mini version of 2008 if the Fed doesn’t change course,” the “Mad Money” host said. “Our one hope? If Fed chief Jerome Powell actually starts listening to the stock market and wakes up to the damage that tariffs can do to the economy, then maybe he’ll shift gears, just like Greenspan did in ’98. Then we can bottom and even roar higher. But as long as Powell stays committed to the December hike and three more next year, … and the president stays committed to expanding his tariffs, then history says we’ve got more downside no matter what.”

Canaccord’s Tony Dwyer: “Fed needs to take its foot off the throat of the market.”

Bill Stone Avalon Advisors’ co-chief investment officer: “The one thing to watch is the Fed, the market is looking at the possibility of a policy error there — that they’ll tighten too hard.”

Merrill Lynch’s head of market strategy Joe Quinlan: “The current market rally has legs, as long as a hawkish Fed doesn’t stop it”

From the Financial Times:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Weekly Commentary: Contemporary Finance’s Defect

Weekly Commentary: Contemporary Finance’s Defect

October 3 – CNBC (Jeff Cox): “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank has a ways to go yet before it gets interest rates to where they are neither restrictive nor accommodative. In a question and answer session Wednesday with Judy Woodruff of PBS, Powell said the Fed no longer needs the policies that were in place that pulled the economy out of the financial crisis malaise. ‘The really extremely accommodative low interest rates that we needed when the economy was quite weak, we don’t need those anymore. They’re not appropriate anymore… Interest rates are still accommodative, but we’re gradually moving to a place where they will be neutral… ‘We may go past neutral, but we’re a long way from neutral at this point, probably.'”
Market bulls grimaced. Powell: “We may go past neutral, but we’re a long way from neutral at this point…” CNBC’s Jim Cramer called it “amateurish.” Chairman Powell was certainly candid, something shockingly unusual for a Fed chair. So atypical was his candor, the Chairman was misconstrued as a novice unschooled in the art of modern central banking.

The bottom line is the Fed waited much too long to begin normalizing monetary policy. Moreover, they pre-committed to an extremely gradual path of rates increases. This policy approach essentially ensured that so-called “tightening” measures would fail to tighten financial conditions. Over-liquefied and speculative markets were content to look right through them, confident that cheap liquidity and easy Credit conditions would run unabated. And, clearly, stock gains in the multiple thousands of basis points easily counteracted a couple hundred basis point increase in short-term borrowing costs.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EXCLUSIVE: Cramer admits the markets are manipulated

The markets are manipulated.  All markets are manipulated.  What’s the ‘take away’ ?  You have several choices:

  • A Get a job at one of the manipulators, break off and start your own manipulation firm
  • B Find out how they are doing it and do it yourself (if you have a really rich Uncle, otherwise this option won’t work for you)
  • C Find a crack in the market manipulation engine and exploit it
  • D Day Trading (but this is really, really, really tough and even if you can manage it, your years are limited.)

Ways to not win, or barely beat inflation:

  • X Buy and hold
  • Y Stock picking
  • Z Buy and hope

Both methods, statistically, will lead to ruin.  You would have been right buying and holding the Amazon’s (AMZN) and the Google’s (GOOG) but how about the Worldcom’s, the Enron’s, the Kodak’s.. The Refco’s.. (we did HODL to Refco and we got a check for .30 cents on the dollar via bankruptcy court).  Stock Picking and Market Timing (when will the market bottom or top) is also dangerous because even if you’re a well funded Genius, you can’t be right all the time. This blast from the past is inspired by a first screening of the original “Fight Club” with the family all together, the inspiration of the theme of this site.  We tried to cover this topic on a high level in our work Splitting Pennies – but although this video is still on youtube, the meme remains well hidden from the masses.  Even Zero Hedge, if you ask most people, think that we’re some political site.  Is it left?  Is it libertarian?  No man, it’s just free.  They don’t know what free is, being overwhelmed with thousands of ‘media missiles’ every day.  Democrats, Republicans, and all in between are brainwashed by their own propaganda, their own Dogmas. This interview is just fascinating.. in many ways, most notably how Cramer easily switches from the ‘hedgie predator’ to ‘party line’ as if he’s 2 different people.  Cramer is a smart guy, one wonders what a smart guy is doing as a TV personality, but then again, a TV icon recently became president.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Indeed This Time Is Different: Because It’s Far Worse

Indeed This Time Is Different: Because It’s Far Worse

Suddenly the narrative that “everything is awesome” is showing to not be as “awesome” as it was first proclaimed. Merely a few months have passed since the ending of QE and praises of awesomeness everywhere are morphing into questions more akin to “Oh no: not again!” And with that we are now watching those who pushed, pulled, and levitated that narrative scramble desperately to push another narrative back onto the stage that worked so many times before: “Every sell off over the last 6 years has shown to be a profitable buying opportunity.” i.e., Just buy the dip (JBTFD). Yet it would seem these dips; are far different.

Just for context, over the past week, if you were one of the few remaining “home-gamers” still watching CNBC™, you would have been delighted to see once again their host Jim Cramer go through great pains to explain why he discounts the idea that we’re in a bubble to once again like ringing a bell (he uses buzzers and gongs I believe) the indexes sell off in dramatic fashion bringing back memories of Bear Sterns. As of today any gains for the year have been quelled. But not too worry, for he also contends you should have “dry powder” at the ready. i.e., Be ready to “JBTFD.”

My thoughts? “Investing” isn’t going to be so easy this time. Why? Let me be so bold to use the same meme touted by the likes of those who sold it: Because, it truly is – different this time. Without QE, not only is there no one buying. What’s far, far, far, (did I say far?) worse is: There’s no one to sell too!

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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