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“Reform” won’t solve our biggest problems

“Reform” won’t solve our biggest problems

“You never cure structural defects; you let the system collapse.”

As I contemplated this proposition taken from a recent piece by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, I realized what profound implications accepting it would have for all those engaged in attempting to address our current social, political and environmental ills.

If it is true that modern capitalism is incompatible with effective action on climate change, if it is true that top-heavy, bureaucratic nations always eventually become captive to their wealthy citizens, if it is true that our centralized, complex, tightly networked systems in finance, agriculture, shipping and manufacturing are exceedingly fragile and prone to failure–if these all represent structural defects, then they cannot be addressed by tinkering or “reform.” Those in charge cannot be persuaded to “do something” which is contrary to the structural necessities built into these systems.

The choices then are: 1) Do nothing, 2) insurrection (for which you might be jailed or worse) or 3) start building a decentralized replacement. Since I’m discarding choices one and two, I’ll address choice three.

First, adopting choice three doesn’t mean we should abandon critiquing the current systems under which we live. Quite the contrary. Those systems are where future adopters of decentralized replacements currently do business. They are the Brand X against which new systems can and need to be compared.

Second, we have good evidence that small-scale governments can actually respond to climate change when large-scale governments can’t. Citizens of seaside communities experience the rising ocean waters first hand and have direct access to their elected officials as do those who experience droughts. And those cities have actually taken significant (but still inadequate) steps toward addressing climate change. It is counterintuitive that decentralized governments could act more quickly and effectively on issues of international scope than national governments until we see them in action.

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“Something Revolutionary Is In The Air”: Grexit By “Insurrection” Is The “Most Probable” Outcome

“Something Revolutionary Is In The Air”: Grexit By “Insurrection” Is The “Most Probable” Outcome

A week ago, we said the following about the situation faced by Greek PM Alexis Tsipras when he and his new finance minister arrived in Brussels for the final round of bailout negotiations earlier this month:

…the entire world looked on in horror as Alexis Tsipras – who just days earlier secured a crucial referendum victory which by all accounts empowered him to ride into Brussels a conquering hero – was eviscerated by German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble and several like-minded EU finance ministers who smelled blood after Greece submitted a proposal that betrayed the Greek PM’s lack of conviction.

In short, Tsipras made a fatal error. In an act of alarming defiance, he boldly called for a referendum on creditors’ proposals, campaigned for a “no” vote, and then, once 61% of the Greek populace gave their leader a mandate to reject more austerity, he proceeded to resubmit the very same proposal Greeks had just voted against. That told EU officials that Tsipras had no intention of leveraging the referendum outcome and from there, the “mental waterboarding” was on.

Now, Greece is stuck with a deal that promises more of the same austerity measures that have so far served only to prolong an intractable recession and indeed, without some manner of debt relief or re-profiling, the new program has no chance of success.

Given all of this, it isn’t surprising that economists are once again beginning to talk about Grexit, and indeed, who can blame them? It’s difficult to take seriously the idea that the new “deal” has taken a Greek exit off the table when German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble still claims that a Greek exit from the EMU might be the country’s best chance at a “classic” haircut and economic recovery. Here’s Bloomberg with more on why Grexit is “back on the agenda”:

 

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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