Home » Posts tagged 'harry dent'

Tag Archives: harry dent

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Important Factors Impacting The Gold & Silver Supply And Price

Important Factors Impacting The Gold & Silver Supply And Price

The majority of analysts still don’t understand that gold and silver are based on two different price or value functions.  To understand the future forecasts for precious metals, investors need to the difference between the two value functions.

In my newest video update, Important Factors Impacting Gold & Silver Price And Supply, I discuss in detail the two different price functions and why the current commodity-based mechanism differs from the precious metals “Store of Value.”

In the video, I explain why the “commodity-priced mechanism” is important as a floor for the gold and silver prices.  Unfortunately, because Harry Dent doesn’t understand this mechanism, he continues to put out faulty and incorrect analysis on the gold price.  Dent stated in his April 13th video update that during the next deflationary collapse of the markets, gold would head back down to $900-$1,000 or the lows of 2008 at $700.

Dent’s gold forecasts continue to be wrong because he fails to incorporate the impact of “ENERGY” and the “COST OF PRODUCTION” on the gold mining industry.

I updated Barrick and Newmont’s combined total production cost versus the gold price for Q1 2020, and was quite surprised.  Again, I explain why I don’t see gold heading anywhere near $700 due to the significant increase in cost to produce the yellow metal since 2006 when gold was the same price.

This video took longer to publish then I had planned due to the research.  I was quite surprised to see Barrick and Newmont’s total production cost rise to nearly $1,400 an ounce for Q1 2020 versus the $1,272 average for 2012, when oil prices were over $100 a barrel.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Harry Dent: Stocks Will Fall 70-90% Within 3 Years

Harry Dent: Stocks Will Fall 70-90% Within 3 Years

Creating the buying opportunity of a lifetime 

Economist and cycle trend forecaster Harry Dent sees crushing deflation ahead for nearly every financial asset class. We are at the nexus of a concurrent series of downtrends in the four most important predictive trends he tracks.

Laying out the thesis of his new book The Sale Of A Lifetime, Dent sees punishing losses ahead for investors who do not position themselves for safety beforehand. On the positive side, he predicts those that do will have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy assets at incredible bargain prices once the carnage ends (and yes, for those of you wondering, he also addresses his outlook for gold):

All four of the cycles I track point down now. One after the next has peaked in the last several years. All four point down into early 2020 or so. That’s only happened in the early to mid-’70s when we had the worst stock crashes back then, the OPEC embargo, etc — the worst set of crises since the 1930s.

Of course, in the early ’30s we had this same configuration of all four of these fundamental cycles, cycles that have taken me 30 years to hone and say “these are the four that matter”.

The next three years are likely to be the worst we see in our lifetimes. It will be more like the early 1930s when stocks hit a debt bubble and financial asset bubbles crashed, which they only do once in a lifetime such as the early 1930s. Stocks will be down 70, 80, 90% — that’s to be as expected in this stage of the cycle after such a bubble.

I went from being the most bullish economist in the ’80s and ’90s to now being of the most bearish because what goes up goes down. That’s what cycles do. At heart, I’m a cycle guy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We’ve Reached the “Zero Point” of Debt Creation

We’ve Reached the “Zero Point” of Debt Creation

Hurtling toward a massive financial crisis.

Forty-five years and counting: We’ve been on a debt spree since the early 1970s when we went off the gold standard, covering every possible angle. Trade deficits, government deficits, unfunded entitlements, private debt – you name it! Our total debt has grown 2.5-times GDP since 1971.

How could economists not see this as a problem? How is this the least bit sustainable?

It isn’t. We’re hurtling toward a massive financial crisis, and all we have to show for it are financial asset bubbles destined to burst. And when they do, they’ll wipe out the artificial wealth they’ve created for many decades… in just a few years, as they did from late 1929 into late 1932!

The chart below shows the common-sense truth.

As with any drug – and debt is a financially enhancing drug – it takes more and more to create less and less of an effect. Eventually, you reach the “zero point” where there is no effect and the drug kills you from its very strain and toxicity.

We’re rapidly approaching that zero point, after every dollar of debt has produced less and less GDP steadily since 1966:

2016-08-31-return-on-debt

Note that the anomaly in the chart after 2008 was due to the impact of unprecedented QE. Ever since that disruption, the trends have pointed back down – making a beeline toward that zero point again.

Back in 2002, Swiss investor and market prognosticator Marc Faber published a similar chart. His findings showed the zero point for debt creation would occur around 2015. With updated data, we now see that the zero point will hit around the beginning of 2017.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Japan’s “Coma Economy” Is A Preview For The World

Japan’s “Coma Economy” Is A Preview For The World

The 1980s were the apex of Japanese culture and economic might. Back then, Japan’s economy was growing so fast, it was thought they would overtake the US. But that all came to a screeching halt. Truth is, Japan’s meteoric rise was fueled by an epic lending bubble. Similar to the Roaring 20s in America.

And when the bubble popped, the government launched massive and misguided measures that set Japan back decades. Their economy hasn’t expanded since. They are stuck in the 1980s. There’s been no growth for 30 years. And as Mike Maloney and Harry Dent explain, the United States could be going down the same path…

“For more than 20 years now, Japan has proved that Keynesian economics does not work… they’ve tried to print their way to prosperity… and failed…they didn’t let the reset happen…”

 

See more here…

“A Total Illusion from QE and Financial Engineering”

“A Total Illusion from QE and Financial Engineering”

The 10-Year Treasury Is Less Than You Think

When the Fed was created in 1914, it was set to task of controlling short-term interest rates in an attempt to iron out financial cycles. It succeeded for many years. But by avoiding the natural rebalancing (and occasional pain) from free markets, we just got a bigger bubble into 1929. Then, when it finally burst, we got the greatest depression in all of modern history!

Since the Fed and other central banks were created, they have always manipulated short-term interest rates to try to encourage borrowing and spending in slowdowns – to make the natural economic cycle “go away.”

And every time, it suppresses the economic cycles that were already in place, until finally they come roaring back.

So it always strikes me as funny to see highly educated, seemingly reasonable people in pin-striped suits and pantsuits stand in front of us and basically say that there’s a free lunch after all – that we can get something for nothing!

To them, economics is no longer a matter of supply and demand, free markets and rebalancing. They think we’ve found a way to program the economy so we never have a recession again.

All the apparent education and sophistication of these top economists, financial officials and central bankers boils down to this simple automaton explanation: if we don’t keep taking more of the financial drug that we used to keep the bubble going, like zero interest rates and QE, we will collapse and go into detox.

It’s the same logic of any extreme addict. When a serious drug addict comes off a high, he realizes the only non-painful choice is to take more of the drug.

As Charlie Sheen said: “the key to drinking is to not stop.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Will Be Largest Evaporation of Wealth in Modern History

This Will Be Largest Evaporation of Wealth in Modern History

It’ll devastate China’s economy and reverberate around the world

Only a handful of countries have a higher savings rate than the Chinese do. For a still relatively poor emerging country with GDP per capita about a fifth of that in the U.S., the Chinese get an A+ in this area.

But if diversification and asset allocation are the key to preserving wealth, then the Chinese get an F!

The reason: 75% of their wealth is in real estate. They’ve overinvested in one illiquid and bubbly asset that they wrongly believe can only go higher. Relative to income, China has seven of the 10 most expensive cities in the world.

In other words, it has the greatest real estate bubble in modern history!

Price to income ratios in the top cities are off the charts. Beijing is 33.5 times income, Shanghai is 30.2 and Shenzhen is 30.0. The average condo in such tier I cities is only 650 square feet and would go for $460 per square foot, or $300,000. In a tier II city, we’re talking $100,000.

That may not sound like a lot, but the average Chinese are only making about $10,000 per year! That begs the question: how do they even do it on their incomes!?

Wade Shepard went after this question in a recent Forbes article. In China, owning your home is paramount. If you’re a man, you have zero chance of getting a date if you don’t. But with home prices running at exorbitant rates, what are their chances?

It all comes back to China’s phenomenally high savings rate. Compared with about 2% in the U.S., the Chinese on average save about 30% of their income. And for the most affluent, it’s more than double that!

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Robert Kiyosaki And Harry Dent Warn That Financial Armageddon Is Imminent

Robert Kiyosaki And Harry Dent Warn That Financial Armageddon Is Imminent

Alarm Clock Globe - Public DomainFinancial experts Robert Kiyosaki and Harry Dent are both warning that the next major economic crash is in our very near future.  Dent is projecting that the Dow will fall to “5,500 to 6,000 by late 2017″, and Kiyosaki actually originally projected that a great crash was coming in 2016 all the way back in 2002.  Of course we don’t exactly have to wait for things to get bad.  The truth is that things are not really very good at the moment by any stretch of the imagination.  Approximately one-third of all Americans don’t make enough money to even cover the basic necessities, 23 percent of adults in their prime working years are not employed, and corporate debt defaults have exploded to the highest level that we have seen since the last financial crisis.  But if Kiyosaki and Dent are correct, economic conditions in this country will soon get much, much worse than this.

During a recent interview, Harry Dent really went out on a limb by staking his entire reputation on a prediction that we would experience “the biggest global bubble burst in history” within the next four years…

There will be… and I will stake my entire reputation on this… we are going to see the biggest global bubble burst in history in the next four years…

There’s only one way out of this bubble and that is for it to burst… all this stuff is going to reset back to where it should be without all this endless debt, endless printed money, stimulus and zero interest rate policy.

And of course he is far from alone.  Without a doubt, we are currently in the terminal phases of the greatest financial bubble the world has ever known, and it is exceedingly difficult to see any way that it will not end very, very badly.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Chart Shows the First Big Crash Is Likely Just Ahead

This Chart Shows the First Big Crash Is Likely Just Ahead

The story on Wall Street and CNBC continues to be that we’re in a correction and this is a buying opportunity. Even Warren Buffett joins the chorus of stock market cheerleaders for the skeptical public. Well, I agree with the skeptical public, not the experts here!

The bull market from early 2009 into May 2015 looks just like every bubble in history, and I’m getting one sign after the next that we did indeed peak last May. The dominant pattern in the stock market is the “rounded top” pattern:

S&P 500 rounded top

After trading in a steep, bubble-like channel from late 2011 into late 2014, with only 10% maximum volatility top to bottom, the market finally lost its momentum… just as the Fed finished tapering its QE. That’s because the Fed was the primary driver in this stock bubble in the first place!

But the first sign that the bubble had indeed peaked was the break of that upward channel last August. Surprise, surprise! Without the Fed’s stimulus, stocks started to sputter out!

With that sign we can point to what now looks like a series of major tops, in one major index after the next, since late 2014:

  • Dow Transports, November 2014.
  • Dow Utilities, January 2015.
  • The DAX in Germany and the FTSE in the UK: April, 2015.
  • The Dow and S&P 500: May 2015.
  • The Shanghai Composite: June 2015.
  • The Nasdaq, Biotech and the Russell 2000: July 2015.
  • And finally, the Nikkei in Japan: August 2015.

The Shanghai Index crashed 45% in 2.5 months, similar to the Dow in late 1929 on its first 2.5-month wave down. That one was so obvious that when I said it was about to burst, it peaked that day and rolled over the next!

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Secret Monetary Group Warns a Catastrophe Is Coming

Secret Monetary Group Warns a Catastrophe Is Coming

This is just the tip of the iceberg.

The Bank for International Settlements is nothing if not obscure. As the central bankers’ bank, it seems little-more than a back-door, private club for monetary elites to rub shoulders. And it’s located in Switzerland which has always carried a reputation for financial secrecy.

Then it has this going for it – John Keynes of “Keynesian economic theory” opposed its dissolution back in the 1940s. His was the kind of thinking that has largely influenced central banks to hijack our economies with manipulative monetary policies! So you’d probably think I hate these guys.

But you’ve got to give credit where credit is due. The Bank for International Settlements is one of the few financial institutions that warned of dangers to the global financial system as early as 2003.

So by time the financial crisis struck, they’d been warning about it for years. Its former chief economist, William White, even dared to challenge former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan about cheap money policies that helped start the crisis!

Once again, this group is on the right side of history.

It just warned about a “gathering storm” in the global economy as central banks seem to be running out of options. They’ve seen right through this “recovery” and warned that unprecedented debt levels would put the world economy in worse shape than before the 2008 crash.

Because like with any addiction, there is a point where increased stimulus just doesn’t work anymore.

Just this week, China reported a 25.4% year-over-year decline in exports, despite continued strong economic stimulus from the government. Now, they simply pledge more stimulus like every central bank in the world.

Then there’s Japan, whose economy remains in a coma after the most aggressive QE of all developed nations. Four of the last seven quarters have been negative, including the fourth quarter of 2015.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Recession Isn’t a Few Months Away… It’s Already Started

The Recession Isn’t a Few Months Away… It’s Already Started

So the S&P 500 is out of correction for now and the coast is clear. NOT! This is exactly what we’ve been predicting would happen – after reaching new lows, stocks would have to bounce before they inevitably resume their longer-term trend, which is down.

But stocks haven’t been the only victims of late. Just a couple weeks ago the January nonfarm payroll report came in at 151,000 jobs. So much for the expected 190,000! And of the ones reported, they were mostly low-wage jobs.

Pile that on top of the disappointing Christmas and retail sales in December. Not to mention falling stock earnings and sales growth, the worst December-to-January stock performance to date, and another banking crisis looming in Europe, especially Italy. There’s economic weakness everywhere you look!

All of this is leading me to believe that the next recession – which will lead into an even greater DEPRESSION – is not a few months away. I think it’s already begun.

Think back to the Great Recession in 2008. By the time we figured out it had started, it was months after the fact. It officially started in January 2008, three months after the stock market peaked in early October. And jobs didn’t peak and start to decline until four months later that May. Only then did the stock market see its sharp and deep crash between June and early November.

Well, of course it did! The jobs report is a lagging indicator! It doesn’t tell us anything about where we are now, which is probably why the Fed and markets-on-crack love it. Yet they think it’s the most important report that comes out.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We’re Flirting With Another Recession

We’re Flirting With Another Recession

Meaning, it might already be here.

Back in May, we were about to go to the printer with the June issue of Boom & Bust when I put on the brakes. My team wasn’t happy to hear it since these things take time to put together. But I didn’t have a choice. I had found compelling evidence to suggest that we were not just looking at another recession, but already possibly back in one.

So, we took a close look at how we’d been flirting with recession over the first half of the year, while economists kept spouting that we had reached escape velocity. Now, after a bit of reprieve during the summer, it looks to be happening again.

We recently got the worst nonfarm payroll jobs report in months as only 142,000 jobs were created last month, with August revised almost 40,000 jobs lower. Plus, labor force participation hit a new low at 62.4%. Overall, we’ve averaged 198,000 jobs per month in 2015, compared with 260,000 jobs in 2014.

For this reason and others, I have reason to believe we’re once again falling into a recession.

What makes the jobs report so concerning is that it’s a lagging indicator – meaning, it’s following a particular trend that’s already started. It supports the possibility that recession is already here.

But let’s also review some of the indicators I looked at back in June. The U.S. Macro Surprise Index shows when indicators beat or miss expectations. Green is when we’re dancing on rooftops because everything’s better than expected. You know what red means. And you can see that 2015 has been a total miss. It’s been negative all year, with early 2015 being the worst period since early 2009.

It might be up from earlier this year, but after the last couple months, it’s dangerously close to falling again.

US Economic Surprise Index Lowest in Four Years

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Bubble’s Days Are Numbered—–Market Tops Are Sprouting Up Everywhere

This Bubble’s Days Are Numbered—–Market Tops Are Sprouting Up Everywhere

I have an important update regarding how far we could see the market drop in the short days and weeks ahead…

I’ve been warning for months that it looks like this bubble may finally be peaking.

I’ve warned that it’s best to get out of stocks a little early rather than a bit late. That’s because, when bubbles finally break, they burst rapidly – as much as 40% in the first few months. It can make markets very volatile, up and down, hence harder to predict and adjust to. If this is indeed the end, we’ve only taken the first step down a long ladder.

In retrospect, the odds keep going up that we saw a major long-term top on May 19.

The first warning sign was that, as stocks made little progress from late December into May, we saw a series of major tops around the world. And that to me is no small matter.

Dow Transports peaked in late November and are down 20% since.

Dow Utilities peaked in late January and are down 18%.

The German DAX and British FTSE both peaked in April and are down 24% and 19%, respectively.

The Dow and S&P 500 appear to have peaked in late May. The Dow’s down 16% since then.

Then in June came China’s Shanghai Composite index – one of the leading dominoes to fall – and it’s crashed 42%. The Russell 2000 index also peaked in June and is down a little more than 12%.

And finally, our Nasdaq, which peaked in late July, is recently down 21%.

Four of those are undeniably in bear territory. The Shanghai, DAX, Nasdaq and Dow Transports have crossed that 20% threshold that literally defines a bear market. A drop like that only raises the chances that a bubble is finally over. But thus far technical indicators only show that the Shanghai and DAX have peaked for good.

And all of this is just the first warning sign…

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

4 Charts Show Why This Rally Will Become a Rout!

4 Charts Show Why This Rally Will Become a Rout!

There’s a reason why I warn you to get out of a bubble a little early rather than a little late. It’s because the first wave down tends to happen in a matter of a few weeks or months, sometimes days. It’s fast and furious.

I know this because I’ve studied every major bubble in modern history – all the way back to the infamous tulip bubble in 1637, when a single tulip cost more than most people made in a single year! And what I’ve seen in each case, without exception, is that bubbles do not correct in nice stair steps when they’re coming off their highs. They burst, crash, collapse, clatter, clang – however you want to say it!

When the bubble deflates, it typically crashes 50% minimum to as high as 90%. But it’s that first wave down that can wipe out 20% to 50% right off the bat!

Below I have four charts that make the argument for me.

They show the 1929 bubble burst… the 1987 crash… the 2000 “Tech Wreck”… and the latest of 2015 from the Red Dragon itself – China’s Tsunami.

In each case, the fact that these bubbles were destined to burst were only obvious to the few that weren’t in denial. Most give into the bubble logic that new highs are the new norms. They think: “This time is different.” It’s not! It never is.

It’s always hard to predict exactly when bubbles will peak and crash. It’s like dropping grains of sand on the floor. A mound will build up – becoming like a Hershey’s kiss that grows more narrow at the top. At some point, one grain of sand will cause the avalanche. Who knows which grain of sand that one will be!

Here are those charts. Like I said, they speak for themselves!

4 Stock Market Crash Charts

What does that tell you!? EVERY bubble bursts. Bam, pow – no exceptions! So hopefully you understand why I keep harping on about this.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bubbles Don’t Correct, They BURST!

Bubbles Don’t Correct, They BURST!

I’m practically drowning in interviews. I had half a dozen yesterday and even more today. But it’s time to put the word out that the second greatest bull march in history is finally coming to an end. It’s done.

Wall Street thinks this is a correction – a 10% drop, maybe 20% at worst, followed by more gains. They think we’re just six years into a 10 if not 20 year bull market. This is just a healthy breather.

Of course they think that! It’s the same “bubble-head” logic you find at the top of any extreme market in history!

Every single time – without exception – we delude ourselves into believing there is no bubble. We think: “Life’s good, why should we argue with it?”

And every time, we’re shocked when it’s over. Only in retrospect do we realize, yes, that was clearly a bubble, and oh, how stupid we were for not seeing it.

Bubbles don’t correct. They burst. They always do. And if anyone is still doubting whether this is a bubble, they need to get with the program – now!

Like I said on Fox yesterday, I wasn’t always a bear. I was one of the most bullish forecasters since the late ‘80s because I discovered how you can predict the spending of consumers through demographics.

With one simple indicator I predicted the Japan crash in the ‘90s when everyone was saying they’d overcome the U.S.

I predicted the greatest boom in U.S. history thanks to the spending of the Baby Boomer generation. All from demographic research, driven by my top cycle, the Spending Wave.

And from that, we knew the Boomers would peak in 2007 followed by a slowing economy.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

URGENT WARNING: 6 Signs the Great Crash Is Upon Us!

URGENT WARNING: 6 Signs the Great Crash Is Upon Us!

The Greek default proves that all this endless quantitative easing idiocy couldn’t live up to the promises. It has proved unable to create sustainable long-term recoveries in highly indebted developed countries with poor demographic trends.

The Greek parliament caved into totally repulsive demands, as I said on Monday that it would. They did it out of stark fear of the chaos a Grexit would bring before free market forces resolved their trade and budget imbalances.

I don’t believe they did the right thing. From the looks of the discontent on the ground, many Greeks don’t either. Be that as it may, this can has been kicked just a little further down the road, yet again.

But the whole mess made investors nervous. As did the recent collapse of China’s stock market which just added to the growing concerns.

Investors are right to worry. I’ve been saying for years that the greatest trigger would be the bursting of the massive, unprecedented China bubble.

How can it not?!

Its stock market soared 159% in less than a year. It gained 30% in justtwo months!

Then its stocks took a nose dive, losing 35% in less than 30 days.

Understand that if China’s stock market had lost just 20%, it would have meant nothing. But, as I’ve always said, a drop of 30% to 40% in short order is a clear sign of a first wave down in a major bust. That’s why I’m always telling you to rather be safe than sorry. If you don’t follow a reliable, proven investment strategy – like any of our premium research services, from Boom & Bust, Cycle 9 Alert, Max Profit Alert, BioTech Intel Trader, Triple Play Strategy and Dent Digest Trader – waiting passively for that extra 1% or even 5% is like playing Russian Roulette.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase