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Trapped Inside The Zero-Bound: Crossing The Economic “Event Horizon”

January 14, 2016

Trapped Inside The Zero-Bound: Crossing The Economic “Event Horizon”

A friend of mine, a very successful tech CEO who is also profoundly astute in matters of finance, once asked his economics prof during a lecture on interest rates in his university days “could interest rates ever go negative?”.

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The professor, gazing over his glasses and down his nose at what obviously had to be an imbecile in his lecture hall calmly set aside a second of his podium time to shoot the idea down: “No.”, he said quite simply, as if he couldn’t believe he had to be explaining this to university level students, “it has to be a positive number….”.

My colleague believed him. After all, being in technology he was familiar with the computer code analogy of a negative interest rate, that being the dreaded divide by zero error. Coders take great pains to avoid these because if it actually happens, the currently running program basically “shits the bed” and all bets are off.

If the currently running program was generating a balance sheet, it may set the line printer on fire instead. If it’s deploying an airplane’s landing gear it may jettison everything in the cargo bay. It’s impossible to guess what will happen. So when people who viscerally understand the kind of consequences the ERR:DIV0 can cause extrapolate it out to an entire economy, they’re the ones that end up “shitting the bed”. It’s really bad.

I always knew that ZIRP was bad, but I just thought it would be normal, run-of-the-mill bad. You know, where most normal people get screwed for a long time, and then “suddenly” everything comes unglued and the financial system implodes, followed by a government intervention while the usual suspects (free markets and capitalism) get hung from telephone poles.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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