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Why Everything is Suddenly Getting More Expensive — And Why It Won’t Stop
Welcome to the Great Inflation — Or, Why We Have to Pay for the Hidden Costs of the Industrial Age
It’s not just me. It’s probably you, too. Have you noticed that it’s starting to be hard to just…get stuff? If you’ve tried buying a car lately, you might have observed that even used car prices have climbed to relatively astronomical levels. The same is beginning to hold true for good after good — from electronics to energy. What’s going on here?
I have some bad news, and I have some…well…worse news. We’re at the beginning of of an era in economic history that’ll probably come to be known as the Great Inflation.
Prices are going to rise, probably exponentially, over the course of the next few decades. The reason for that’s simple: everything, more or less, has been artificially cheap. The costs of everything from carbon to fascism to ecological collapse to social fracture haven’t been factored in — ever, from the beginning of the industrial age. But that age is now coming to a sudden, climactic, explosive end. The problem is that, well, we’re standing in the way.
Let me explain, with an example. I was looking for a microphone for a singer I’m working with. I was shocked to read that a well-know German microphone company had just…stopped making them. And furloughed all its workers. It didn’t say why — but it didn’t need to. The reason’s obvious. Steel prices are rising, and they’re going to to keep rising, because energy prices are rising. Then there’s the by now infamous “chip shortage,” chips they probably rely on, too. Add all that up, and bang — you’ve got an historic company suddenly imploding.
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Debt As Wealth; The Caution of Unfit Past Experience
Debt As Wealth; The Caution of Unfit Past Experience
With the G-20 recoiling itself back into the same kinds of mistakes made in the 1960’s, leading directly to the Great Inflation, we will have to take into account the other end of that, namely other forms of “stimulus.” With the global economy sinking, and worries about it beginning to resound beyond just inconvenient bears, there is growing official consensus on central banks taking a clearer approach but also that governments need to face up to “austerity.”
Paul Krugman has been leading the critique against what he sees is a disastrous and ignorant deformation against debt. In times like these, which he “predicted” based on too little government spending, Krugman derides fiscal sense as “cold-hearted.”
This misplaced focus said a lot about our political culture, in particular about how disconnected Congress is from the suffering of ordinary Americans. But it also revealed something else: when people in D.C. talk about deficits and debt, by and large they have no idea what they’re talking about — and the people who talk the most understand the least…
People who get their economic analysis from the likes of the Heritage Foundation have been waiting ever since President Obama took office for budget deficits to send interest rates soaring. Any day now!
The above quoted passage was taken from a column he wrote back on New Year’s Day 2012. While it has aged three years, given the global slowdown that was about to take place and the ineffectiveness of monetarism alone to dispel it, his words are being taken increasingly as both prescient and prescriptive. However, the logic behind his anti-austerity agenda is more of a sleight of hand than actual argument.
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This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare
March 14, 2018
This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare
As soon as the GOP followed its long-promised tax cuts with damn-the-deficit spending increases (who cares about the kids, right?), you knew to be ready for the Lyndon B. Johnson reminders.
And it’s worth remembering that LBJ pushed federal spending higher, pushed his central bank chairman against the wall (figuratively and, by several accounts, also literally) and eventually pushed inflation to post–Korean War highs.
Inflation kept climbing into Richard Nixon’s presidency, pausing for breath only during a brief 1970 recession (although without falling as Keynesian economists predicted) and then again during an attempt at wage and price controls that ended badly. Nixon’s controls disrupted commerce, angered businesses and consumers, and helped clear a path for the spiraling inflation of the mid- and late-1970s.
So naturally, when Donald Trump and the Republicans pulled off the biggest stimulus years into an expansion since LBJ’s guns, butter and batter the Fed chief, it should make us think twice about inflation risks—I’m not saying we shouldn’t do that.
But do the 1960s really tell us much about the inflation outlook today, or should that outlook reflect a different world, different economy and different conclusions?
I would say it’s more the latter, and I’ll give five reasons why.
1—Technology
I’ll make my first reason brief, because the deflationary effects of technology are both transparent and widely discussed, even if model-wielding economists often ignore them. When some of your country’s largest and most impactful companies are set up to help consumers pay lower prices, that should help to, well, contain prices.
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