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USA and World Oil Production

June 5, 2018

USA and World Oil Production

All data below is from various sources. All US data is from the EIA. Unless otherwise noted is in thousand barrels per day.

US C+C production through April, 2018. For the last 8 months, the average increase in US production has been 168,000 bpd. Most of this has come from the Permian.

This chart is through February, 2018. US net imports peaked in 2006 and have dropped about 9.5 million barrels per day since then.

Alaska through March, 2018. Alaska’s decline has definitely slowed.

GOM through March. The resurgence in GOM production seems to have petered out about a year and a half ago and is now holding at about 1.7 million barrels per day.

North Dakota through March. Has shale production peaked in North Dakota? It does appear that they are having trouble increasing production in the last six months.

Texas through March, All that increase in US production has come from Texas, primarily from the Permian. For how long and for how much will this increase continue? I have no idea but guesses will be welcome in the comments below.

This data is from the Canadian National Energy Board and is through December, 2018. They say all data from September 2017 through December 2018 is an estimate. They are expecting production to bottom out in May 2018 and then increase for the remainder of the year.

This data is from the Russian Minister of Energy and is through May, 2018. Russian production has been almost flat for the last three months. Data from the Russian Minister of Energy averages about 400,000 barrels per day higher than the EIA’s estimate.

China through February, 2018. China is clearly in decline though the decline seems to have slowed.

Mexico through February, 2018. Mexico is in a slow decline though the decline has slowed in the last few months.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Oil Production On Pause, But Decline Seems Imminent

February 5, 2016

Global Oil Production On Pause, But Decline Seems Imminent

One hundred and seventy-six years after the birth of John Boyd Dunlop, and the crude complex is coming under pressure again.

It is Nonfarm Friday, which means that the market is all a’flustered, digesting the soon-to-be-revised official monthly U.S. unemployment report. The report was fairly underwhelming from a headline perspective; only 151,000 jobs were created last month, versus an expectation of 190,000.

That said, there was some solace to be found for those of a glass half-full persuasion, as not only did the unemployment rate tick to a new eight-year low of 4.9 percent, but average weekly hours worked ticked higher, and the participation rate continued to clamber away from multi-decade lows, reaching 62.7 percent. A little bit for everyone here.

U.S. unemployment rate, 2007 – present (source:investing.com)

Related: The $2 Trillion Gift From Oil Companies To Consumers

Perhaps the most interesting statistic of the day, however, has come from Wood Mackenzie, who says that only 0.1 percent – or 100,000 bpd – of global oil production has been curtailed thus far due to the price slump. It says this drop, albeit modest, has come from the Canadian oil sands, U.S. conventional production, and from the UK’s North Sea.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that 2.2 million barrels per day of Canadian production is currently ‘cash negative’, while so is 230,000 bpd of Venezuela’s heavy oil production, and 220,000 bpd of production from the North Sea. It is also important to note that although we are not seeing considerable production losses, we are seeing a lot of oil being left in the ground that otherwise would have been extracted.

Production on pause, so to speak. It would seem that 100,000 is the number of the day, as it is also the number of job losses seen from the U.S. oil and gas industry since October of 2014.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

A True Jobs Massacre Spreads in US Oil & Gas

August 6, 2015

A True Jobs Massacre Spreads in US Oil & Gas

It’s been tough for US oil companies. And even tougher for their investors. The hero du jour is Marathon Oil.

Today afterhours it reported an eye-popping 48% plunge in revenues in the second quarter and a net loss of $386 million. To stem the bleeding, it slashed capital expenditures by 40% from the prior quarter. “Importantly,” as it said in the press release, it was able to reduce production costs in North America by over 30% per barrel of oil equivalent from a year ago. And it cut is general and administrative costs by more than 20%.

The key to survival in this environment of plunging revenues is conserving cash and slashing expenses, including “workforce reductions,” as the company calls them. And something else….

Marathon proudly said that its global production from continuing operations (excluding Libya) rose 6% from a year ago, with its US production soaring “nearly 30%.” And it’s not backing down either: Total company production would increase 5-7% year-over-year, with a 20% jump in production in the US.

Thus it joined the cacophonous chorus of oil and gas companies that have been bragging about production increases despite the oil glut, despite the oil price plunge, despite the mayhem in the oil markets, just when investors are desperately waiting for the ever elusive production cuts.

BP’s debacle is even worse. Last week, it announced a loss of $6.3 billion and warned of more layoffs to come. It raised the restructuring charges for those layoffs from $1 billion, put forward in December, to $1.5 billion. “We will continue to identify more opportunities for simplification and efficiency,” is how CEO Bob Dudley put it in perfect corporate-speak. And cuts are now coming at “a faster pace.”

Dozens of companies in the oil & gas sector have announced job cuts since last fall, with some of the global players, like Baker Hughes, pushing their layoff numbers into the low five-digits. It has been a relentless litany.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Oil Price Crash and Economic Slow Down in China

March 26, 2015

The Oil Price Crash and Economic Slow Down in China

Two of the factors in the oil price crash are well constrained: 1) oversupply of expensive light tight oil (LTO) in North America and 2) the decision of OPEC to not cut production. The third possible factor of weak global demand is not so easy to constrain but the current oil price crash bears many of the same hallmarks as the 2008 finance crash. This has lead to speculation that weak global demand, stemming from masked economic woes, may also be playing a key role.

In response to this, commenter Javier sent me a collection of 10 charts that he had collected from various internet sources together with his commentary that forms the basis of this joint-post. These charts tell a clear story of a major economic slowdown in China. This most certainly will be implicated in the ongoing oil price weakness. The $10,000 question is will China make a cyclical rebound like it has done in the past?

Figure 1 GDP growth. YoY = year on year % change. Note many charts are not zero scaled. China’s economy is still growing at 7% per year but has slowed down dramatically from 12% 5 years ago. Such change has happened before, notably between 1994 and 1998 linked to the Asian currency crisis. The oil price hit $10 per barrel in 1998. And in 2007 to 2009 an even more sharp fall related to the financial crash was also accompanied by a crash in the oil price.

Javier points out that in a country with rapid population growth a higher GDP growth rate is required than in a country with stable or declining population and he suggests that 7% is in reality approaching recessionary levels.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Broken Energy Markets and the Downside of Hubbert’s Peak – The Automatic Earth

December 23, 2014

Broken Energy Markets and the Downside of Hubbert’s Peak – The Automatic Earth.

Euan: A few commenters have mentioned peak oil recently. I am cautious about making forecasts and predictions and prefer instead to observe and document the data as the peak oil story unfolds. I have in fact published a couple of charts recently illustrating aspects of peak oil, one showing a possible peak in the rest of the world that excludes N America and OPEC (Figure 1). The other showing the undulating plateau in conventional crude + condensate that has persisted since 2005 (Figure 2). In my last post on oil price scenarios two of those showed global oil production capacity 1 to 2 Mbpd lower in 2016 than 2014. If that comes to fruition, will we have passed peak oil but does it matter?

Figure 1 Global oil production has been split into three geo-political categories: 1) USA and Canada, 2) OPEC and 3) the Rest of the World (RoW). RoW production bears the hallmarks of having peaked in the period 2005 to 2010 and this has consequences for oil prices, demand and prosperity in parts of the world, especially the OECD. Most of the growth in oil supply has been in the USA and Canada where the market has been flooded with expensive oil. Data are crude oil + condensate + natural gas liquids (C+C+NGL) and exclude biofuels and refinery gains that are included by the IEA in their total liquids number.

The current “low oil price crisis” is providing a clear and new perspective on the nature of the peak oil problem. If low price does indeed destroy high cost production capacity then this will raise the question if the high cost sources can ever be brought back? IF low price kills the shale industry can it come back from the dead?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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