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Why expensive gasoline is here to stay

Why expensive gasoline is here to stay

“Future presidents and administrations are going to be absolutely bedeviled by high gasoline prices.”

A gasoline price board is shown at a gas station.
In the short term, expectations for a drop in gasoline demand have yet to emerge. | Jeff Chiu/AP Photo

The political pain that high gasoline prices have inflicted on President Joe Biden offers a potential warning to future presidents: It’s likely to happen to you, too.

The reason: The United States’ capacity for refining oil into gasoline is declining, a trend that appears irreversible — for reasons that include climate change. But the nation’s appetite for fuel is holding firm, no matter all the predictions of a future filled with electric cars.

The result is a domestic gasoline supply on a hair trigger, making the nation more vulnerable to fuel panics that would resemble last year’s hacker-driven shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline, while feeding inflation and angering voters. Since early 2020, the United States’ fuel-producing capacity has fallen by nearly 1 million barrels per day, or about 5 percent.

“We are going to be operating a shrunken, old and in-need-of-repair refining system a lot harder,” said Bob McNally, head of consulting firm Rapidan Energy and former senior director for international energy on the National Security Council in the George W. Bush administration. “Future presidents and administrations are going to be absolutely bedeviled by high gasoline prices.”

Republicans have pummeled the Biden administration for record high gasoline prices, blaming the jump on the president’s focus on climate change and his promises to reduce the nation’s reliance on fossil fuels. But instead of being a modern outlier, the high prices may signal a new norm that future residents of the White House of either party will have to face down.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Report: US Gas Prices Could Double Soon, Amid Potential Supply Shortage

Report: US Gas Prices Could Double Soon, Amid Potential Supply Shortage

Report: US Gas Prices Could Double Soon, Amid Potential Supply Shortage
Prices for gas at an Exxon gas station on Capitol Hill are seen March 14, 2022 in Washington, DC.   (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Some gas stations across the country are already bracing for the Next Big Thing involving surging fuel prices, namely the price per gallon potentially exceeding $10.

For other stations, however, there might be no product left to sell at the pumps.

Throughout eastern Washington, according to a Post Millennial report, gas stations are running out of fuel.

In the Tri-Cities region of Kennewick, Pasco, and West Richland, customers are reportedly pulling up to pumps … only to find no gas available for purchase.

In fact, a local Facebook group has already identified 10 state stations that are currently out of fuel.

This current shortage mainly accounts for regular unleaded and premium gasolines; but the diesel supply is also in short supply, according to reports.

With the supply seemingly shrinking, and demand going way up, that naturally leads to higher fuel prices.

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A “76” gas station in Auburn, Washington has already begun reprogramming its pumps to “make room” for double-digit pricing, according to the Post.

In the report, a 76 spokesperson confirmed the national gas chain was reprogramming the functionality of its pumps, while also falling short of predicting gas prices would rise that high.

Back in January 2021, the final month of former President Donald Trump’s tenure in the White House, the average price of gas was $2.41 per gallon — with some states even reporting gas at less than $2 per gallon.

In the aftermath, though, coinciding with President Joe Biden taking office, fuel prices have skyrocketed in America.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Biden’s Policy to Double Gasoline Prices

Biden’s objectives, or should I say the people really running his administration which does not include even Harris, is to DOUBLE gasoline prices which is Part-B of this plan to “Build Back Better” which first requires you to destroy the economy as it currently exists. Part A was using the lockdowns to end commuting and force the bulk of the people to work remotely. That would end commuting. Part B is to double the price of gasoline by shutting down pipelines and preventing drilling wherever possible. Of course with state taxes on top of gasoline, as you can see reaching $5 to $6 in California has been accomplished.

On the futures, the major resistance stands at the 2.20 level. We can easily see gasoline prices rise to test the $4 to $5 level by 2023. I have been warning that this election was NEVER between Trump and Biden – this was about a major change and the agenda was coming from a coordinated effort spearheaded by the World Economic Forum.

joe biden, gasoline prices, united states, world economic forum, wef, martin armstrong, armstrong economics

Canada’s Cars Are World’s Worst Gas Guzzlers, but BC May Be Tipping Point

Canada’s Cars Are World’s Worst Gas Guzzlers, but BC May Be Tipping Point

Surge in electric vehicle sales a silver lining to high pump prices.

Without BC’s carbon tax on fuel, UBC researchers figured, demand per capita would be seven per cent higher and the average vehicle’s fuel efficiency would be four per cent lower. Photo via Shutterstock.

[Editor’s note: Accelerating gasoline prices in B.C. have triggered an investigationby the B.C. Utilities Commission and are helping to fuel a boom in electric vehicle sales in the province. Refining more crude locally might eventually cause gasoline prices to drop but that would take years and a major investment, says one analyst. “I can’t see anybody wanting to invest at least a billion [dollars] for a new refinery in British Columbia because you’ve got electric vehicles coming over the hill. They’re in the market, they’re available, and they are a viable alternative to gasoline powered cars.” 

Is that a tipping point we hear? The Tyee’s Geoff Dembicki predicted in December that might happen. Earlier this month, University of Calgary professor Blake Shaffer revealed Canadian cars are the world’s top gas guzzlers, but B.C.’s carbon tax along with provincial and federal electric-car-friendly policies are mapping the road to redemption. Given trends at the pump and in the atmosphere, Shaffer’s findings are more relevant daily.]

Usually when Canada is at the top of an international ranking, it’s cause for celebration. Not this time.

A recent report by the International Energy Agency shows that Canada’s vehicles have the highest average fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per kilometre driven. They are also the largest and the second heaviest in the world.

In short: Canadian vehicles are bigheavy and guzzle a lot of gasoline. For a country that is championing its climate action, how do we square these facts?

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Oil Exports Are Exceeding Almost All Predictions—Thanks to Fracking

US Oil Exports Are Exceeding Almost All Predictions—Thanks to Fracking

Oil tanker in the Houston ship channel

And crude oil exports are supposed to double by 2020, according to the San Antonio News-Express. That’s a lot of oil — and almost all of it is fracked.

That should come as no surprise. In August 2015, my story for DeSmog, “Lifting Ban On U.S. Crude Oil Export Would Enable Massive Fracking Expansion,” pretty much sums up what is happening now. However, that’s not what the industry experts at the time were predicting.

Last year I noted how quickly these experts, from energy consultants to academics, were proven wrong in their predictions about the effects of overturning the 40-year-old ban, which occurred in December 2015.

If exports double by 2020, those experts will be that much more wrong. Perhaps the best example of this phenomenon is from a December 2015 newsletter from CME Group — a commodities trading group that stood to profit greatly from trading U.S.exported oil. The newsletter, which takes a question-and-answer format, included the following:

Question #2: Will lifting the crude oil export ban result in greater U.S. production?

The answer: No.

Couldn’t get more wrong that, but CME now lists U.S. WTI crude on its website as one of the top commodities it trades. I guess there’s a lesson here about whether to trust a commodities trader.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Is Surging… And So Are Gas Prices At The Pump

Brent Crude nears $85 as WTI tops $75 – at four year highs – as the tight oil markets continue to send gas prices at the pump to the highest in four years…

WTI is up over 2.5% today – spiking from $73 to $75 intraday – despite a report from Genscape that shows an 800k barrel inventory build at Cushing.

The FT notes that analysts said that frantic deal making by Asian buyers normally reliant on Iranian imports at an annual oil conference in Singapore last week indicated how tight the physical market was.

“The market is incredibly tight,” said Amrita Sen, founder of consultancy Energy Aspects, who noted that financial players were just realising the severity of the impact of Washington’s Iranian sanctions.

“People are distracted by various comments from [European] governments trying to set up alternative payment mechanisms, but the refiners and other companies dealing directly on the oil markets are saying it’s not worth the risk,” she added.

As AAA reports, despite gasoline demand dropping to 9.0 million b/d and inventories growing to 235.7 million bbl, according to the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, the national gas price average has increased three cents on the week to land at $2.88 – a pump price not seen at the national average since mid-July.

“The last quarter of the year has kicked off with gas prices that feel more like summer than fall,” said Jeanette Casselano, AAA spokesperson.

“This time of year, motorists are accustomed to seeing prices drop steadily, but due to continued global supply and demand concerns as well as very expensive summertime crude oil prices, motorists are not seeing relief at the pump.”

Today’s national gas price average ($2.88) is the most expensive for the beginning of October since 2014. The average is four cents more than a month ago and 32 cents more than a year ago.

Oil Prices Have Been Rising And $4 A Gallon Gasoline Would Put Enormous Stress On The U.S. Economy

Oil Prices Have Been Rising And $4 A Gallon Gasoline Would Put Enormous Stress On The U.S. Economy

Thanks to increasing demand and upcoming U.S. sanctions against Iran, oil prices have been rising and some analysts are forecasting that they will surge even higher in the months ahead.  Unfortunately, that would be very bad news for the U.S. economy at a time when concerns about a major economic downturn have already been percolating.  In recent years, extremely low gasoline prices have been one of the factors that have contributed to a period of relative economic stability in the United States.  Because our country is so spread out, we import such a high percentage of our goods, and we are so dependent on foreign oil, our economy is particularly vulnerable to gasoline price shocks.  Anyone that lived in the U.S. during the early 1970s can attest to that.  If the average price of gasoline rises to $4 a gallon by the end of 2018 that will be really bad news, and if the average price of gasoline were to hit $5 a gallon that would be catastrophic for the economy.

Very early on Tuesday, the price of U.S. oil surged past $70 a barrel in anticipation of the approaching hurricane along the Gulf Coast.  The following comes from Fox Business

U.S. oil prices rose on Tuesday, breaking past $70 per barrel, after two Gulf of Mexico oil platforms were evacuated in preparation for a hurricane.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $70.05 per barrel at 0353 GMT, up 25 cents, or 0.4 percent from their last settlement.

If we stay at about $70 a gallon, that isn’t going to be much of a problem.

But some analysts are now speaking of “an impending supply crunch”, and that is a very troubling sign.  For example, just check out what Stephen Brennock is saying

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Is Behind Surging Gas Prices?

What Is Behind Surging Gas Prices?


As gas stations raise prices in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, there have been numerous accusations of price gouging. Especially on social media, some are quick to conclude price gouging if they see gasoline prices go up by 10 or 20 cents per gallon over the course of a couple of days.

At the same time, there are widespread reports of gasoline hoarding, even as reports of shortages were spreading across Texas. The photo above, which has been widely circulated on social media, shows a motorist in Texas putting gasoline in two plastic trash cans in the back of his pickup (which, to be clear, is extremely dangerous). I tracked down the photographer — Miguel Jimenez — to obtain permission to use the photo. He confirmed this incident took place at the gas station located next to his Nomad Bar in Austin.

These issues — gouging, hoarding, and shortages — are all interrelated, and they demonstrate why the issue of price gouging isn’t always as simple it seems.

Here are the options that a gas station may face. If a service station’s gasoline inventories are depleting at a faster than normal pace (for example, deliveries are delayed), they have three choices. One, they can do nothing and just hope they don’t run out of fuel. Two, they can raise prices to slow down demand (especially from those who are hoarding gasoline) and to provide an incentive for more supplies to flow into the region. Or three, they can ration gasoline.

There are disadvantages of each approach.

In most cases, a station will opt to raise prices. This, effectively, is rationing by price. It provides a disincentive against hoarding while stretching gasoline supplies for those who really need it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gasoline Prices Tumble As Refiners Resume Operations

Gasoline Prices Tumble As Refiners Resume Operations

RBOB Gasoline futures tumbled to their lowest level in almost a week overnnight as several US Gulf Coast refineries reported their plans to restart operationsafter the devastation of Hurricane Harvey forced them to shutdown.

While about one-fifth of U.S. refining capacity is halted, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, some plants including those operated by Citgo Petroleum Corp. and Marathon Petroleum Corp. are preparing to restart.

The Oct ’17 contract was down as much as 4% earlier before a modest bounce.

Moreover, compared to the squeeze in the September contract, RBOB prices have really tumbled…

Of course, this rather spoils Janet Yellen’s transitory hopes for a burst of inflation to help her case when she next raises rates and while concerns had risen that higher gas prices could derail the Trump economy, it appears those risks are overblown. As The Hill reports,

Stephen Moore, a fellow at the Heritage Foundation and former Trump transition energy adviser, said “the negative effect will be not pretty.”

“We’re talking about maybe knocking half a percent, or one percent, off GDP for a quarter or two, higher gas prices for sure, because Houston is the energy capital of the country. … So all those things are negative.”

Moore said he follows a rule of thumb that every penny increase in commercial gasoline prices takes $1 billion to $2 billion out of the economy from consumers.

That means that as prices rise after Harvey, the economy could be hit even harder, including from lost economic production in Houston — the country’s fourth biggest city — and the spending needed for a major federal recovery effort.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Harvey Hangover Hits Pump Prices, Jet Fuel Premium Highest Since 2008

Harvey Hangover Hits Pump Prices, Jet Fuel Premium Highest Since 2008

“It’s only just beginning,” warned one seasoned veteran energy trader as the hangover from Hurricane Harvey flows downstream to retail gas prices and jet fuel premiums.

As Bloomberg notes, Harvey impact currently includes:

  • Colonial says it’ll commingle Rbob and conventional gasoline
  • Explorer Pipeline planning to start lines Saturday, Sunday
  • Logjam grows to 29 oil tankers as 11 ports remain closed
  • Total Port Arthur is said facing extended shutdown on power loss
  • Texas storm bucks N.Y. traders with wild gasoline expiry swings
  • NHC issues final advisory on Harvey; losing tropical character

Which has left retail gas prices at the pump are now at their highest in 2 years…

And judging by their usual lagged response to RBOB, are set to go dramaticaly higher in the next few weeks…

And while inventories are high, deliveries are slow and fears of shortages have created lines at many Texas gas stations…

 “This is going to be a substantial ouch for consumers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for Oil Price Information Service. “Satan could not have drawn up a more horrible geographic scenario for knocking out Texas refining.”

But it is Jet Fuel premiums that are even more worrisome…

New York jet fuel’s premium to Nymex futures rises 20.5c to 36c/gal., widest since 2008, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

And U.S. Gulf jet fuel premium widens 10.25c to 19c/gal., also widest since 2008

And unlike Gasoline – where inventories are high – Jet fuel inventories are below average.

The latest EIA data implies jet fuel inventory levels are just over 23 days of forward cover, seasonally-adjusted, 8% below the five-year average. Flooding and crude oil supply disruptions have led to the temporary closing of more than 21% of the country’s refining capacity, primarily in the Gulf Coast, contributing to further draws on jet fuel inventories.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

My Prescription for 2016: Collapse Early and Often

My Prescription for 2016: Collapse Early and Often

Tony Futura

We are in the time of year when most sensible animals living in northerly climates are hibernating in burrows and hollow tree trunks, while the somewhat less sensible pundits make their predictions for the coming year. My prediction is always the same—things will go on more or less same as before, until something major breaks, while the probability of something major breaking goes up with each passing year. I have called this event “collapse,” and have predicted, year after year, that it will eventually happen. And so, instead of repeating this less than useful prediction, this year I will instead provide a prescription.

Not too many people, I expect, will want to follow my prescription; not too many of my family members, or friends, or acquaintances, or you who are reading this. And that’s fine because, as I have learned over and over again, there is no strength in numbers. Quite the opposite: the probability of any given trick working is in inverse proportion to the number of times it is tried, or the number of people who try it. And so, if you are reading along and think “I can’t possibly do this because of [insert lame excuse]!” then—good! Fine with me. Fewer people equals more oxygen.

And that applies to the few people who will actually bother to read this. Lots more people will not want to read this, because—what collapse? Gasoline prices are low, Obama has shut down most of the wars, the economy is strong enough for the Fed to have started hiking rates, and once Bernie Trump gets into the White House, everything else will be set right too. To the people who think that, someone like me, who predicted collapse a while back, was clearly wrong, and needs to be psychoanalyzed, not followed. Again, fine with me, so long and thanks for all the bullshit.
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A Bit Of Perspective On Gasoline Prices

A Bit Of Perspective On Gasoline Prices

To me, commodity pricing today is so distorted that it is almost startling. The media continues its post Goldman Sachs’ bearish calls to pound away on OPEC supply with little attention paid to rising demand. Admittedly, as we end the summer driving season, such demand will wane, adding pressure for supplies to draw down as we head into the fall. Even the EIA seems to think this trend will likely begin in July.

The focus this week in the media is Saudi supply, as it negotiates with India for more supply without mentioning a reason: demand is up. This, even after reiteration upon reiteration from the Saudis that demand is exceeding expectations. Even the EIA has finally admitted it, although as expected, they upped their U.S. supply estimates to over 700,000 barrels per day in 2015 to offset the euphoria. I have my doubts on this call of higher supply as I’ve written before.

Related: Oil Prices Responding Positively To Bad News, But Why?

I have emphasized the point of waning supply, tied to depletion, for months now, which, like demand has gone unspoken in the media with the overriding narrative focused on efficiency gains or well productivity instead. The bias is very clear at this point and so is the media agenda.

In the near term, shorting in highly leveraged names ahead of the fall credit redetermination has caused equities to decouple from oil prices. Energy prices are at or near highs and even natural gas has recovered some while E&P equity prices for leveraged names are at lows. Look for a substantial pick up in M&A soon which, more than prices, will act as a catalyst on equity prices in my view.


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The Government Fraudulently Reported April Inflation Numbers

The Government Fraudulently Reported April Inflation Numbers

There’s no B.S. like the BLS – Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index for April this morning. This Ministry of “Truth” published an inflation report that asserts that consumer inflation rose .1% month over month for April.   But a further dissection of the numbers shows that the BLS has the price of gasoline falling 1.7% during April.

This is either a politically motivated act of fraud or complete incompetence on the part of the Government statisticians and data gatherers (the Census Bureau).

In fact, the price of gasoline rose over 12% during April – the fastest monthly rise in history:


As you can see, the price of gasoline rose from $1.77 to $2.00 during the month of April. Either the people running the BLS are complete incompetent idiots or have been given strict orders from above – i.e. the White House – to produce politically friendly economic reports. Let’s call the BLS “The Ministry of Disinformation.”

The BLS’ distortion of the data it reports is far greater and fraudulent that ANYONE is willing to admit, investigate or report.

Here’s what they did to gold after that fraud-filled CPI report was released (click to enlarge):

Gold hit

Any questions as to the political motivation behind the Government’s intentional release of fraudulent economic data?



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