If the prediction is correct, how do you profit from the insight? If the prediction is wrong and the “end of the world” is delayed (typical), you lose credibility.
An estimate of risk versus reward based on an analysis of current information is more useful.
Assessment: The 2018-2020 risk for most asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, corporate debt, and real estate is high while the potential reward in those asset classes is low. Gold and silver are opposite. Their long-term risk is low (September 2018) and their long-term potential reward is huge.
From Goldman Sachs:
OPINIONS AND FACTS SUPPORTING RISK/REWARD ASSESSMENT:
The central banks and the financial world created an “everything bubble.” This includes the stock market, bond market, housing, student loans, sub-prime auto loans, emerging markets, fiat currencies, and central bank credibility.
Low interest rates enable bubbles!
Bubbles always burst or implode. People want to believe “this time is different,” but it usually isn’t. Bubbles will implode and cause huge damage, especially to the middle and lower classes in the United States. Remember the crashes of 1987, 2000 and 2008. Each one seemed more destructive and broader in its reach than the previous crash. What will the crash of 2018 – 202? create?
If it can’t continue, it will stop – someday. Total debt – national, household, corporate, sovereign and more – has increased exponentially since 1913 when the Federal Reserve… you know the drill.
Use national debt for example. Begin the calculations in 1913, 1971, 1980, 2000 or whenever. The rate of increase in the official national debt varies but on average the debt increased by 8% to 9% every year and doubles every eight to nine years. Consider the implications of runaway debt, out of control spending, and no political will to manage spending, debt, or expansion of government, Medicare, military expenditures etc.
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