Home » Posts tagged 'fuel supply'

Tag Archives: fuel supply

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

As Fuel Prices Poised to TRIPLE, EU Mulls Rationing Gas Across Bloc Monday

The European Union (EU) is going down in flames as its fuel taps from Russia run dry.

Issues related to the war in Ukraine have resulted in no more gas flowing through the Nord Stream 1 (NS1) pipeline and soon-to-be tripled gas prices across Europe.

To avoid what will inevitably become a widespread catastrophe for the European economy, EU officials are reportedly discussing fuel rationing as the next step in their standoff against Russian President Vladimir Putin, who quite frankly appears to be winning on every front.

Should the NS1 pipeline never get turned back on due to issues with a key engine turbine component that is still stuck in Canada due to sanctions, Western Europe faces a total loss of energy in the coming months.

Up until now, the public was simply hearing about these problems on the news. Now, however, the consequences of failed political leadership are turning into sky-high gas prices and now the potential for forced rationing.

A recent poll found that more than 60 percent of German citizens fear there will not be enough gas to go around this winter, especially since some people will be stocking up and hoarding what they can before prices triple come 2023.

Germans are starting “to sweat” as they realize there will be no gas available for heat this winter

Draft EU measures propose limiting the heating of public and commercial buildings to 19 degrees Celsius, or around 66 degrees Fahrenheit, which is cold enough to require the use of extra layers of clothing indoors.

Private households are also being encouraged to lower their thermostats by one degree, a proposal that was also made back in February right after Russia invaded Ukraine.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why the Standard Model of Future Energy Supply Doesn’t Work

Why the Standard Model of Future Energy Supply Doesn’t Work

The most prevalent view regarding future oil supply, as well as total energy supply, seems to be fairly closely related to that expressed by Peak Oilers. Future fossil fuel supply is assumed to be determined by the resources in the ground and the technology available for extraction. Prices are assumed to rise as fossil fuels are depleted, allowing more expensive technology for extraction. Substitutes are assumed to become possible, as costs rise.

Those with the most optimistic views about the amount of resources in the ground become especially concerned about climate change. The view seems to be that it is up to humans to decide how much energy resources we will use. We can easily cut back, if we want to.

The problem with this approach is the world economy is much more interconnected than most analysts have ever understood. It is also much more dependent on growing energy supply than most have understood. Surprisingly, we humans aren’t really in charge; the laws of physics ultimately determine what happens.

In my view, Peak Oilers were correct about energy supplies eventually becoming a problem. What they were wrong about is the way the problem can be expected to play out. Major differences between my view and the standard view are summarized on Figure 1.

Figure 1. Prepared by Author.

Let me explain some of the issues involved.

[1] Modeling is a lot more difficult than it looks.

Let’s take one common model of the part of the earth where we live, a street map:

Figure 2. Source: Edrawsoft.com

If we want to scale the model up to cover the whole world, we need to add a whole new dimension. In other words, we need to make a globe.

The same problem occurs with what seem to be simple economic models, like supply and demand:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress