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Diesel takes another hit and may be driving down broader oil market

Diesel takes another hit and may be driving down broader oil market

One analyst sees renewable diesel as beginning to have a major impact on world oil markets

 Tne benchmark diesel price dropped for the fifth straight week. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

With the benchmark diesel price used for most fuel surcharges down for the fifth week in a row, diesel consumers should be reveling in the fact that market trends appear to have completely thrown out concerns about the Middle East conflict and are focused on the markets for both diesel and gasoline as primary drivers.

The Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration average weekly retail diesel price fell 4.6 cents Monday to $3.848 a gallon. The five consecutive declines have taken that price down 21.3 cents a gallon during, and the price is now at a level not seen since the end of January.

Whatever impact that oil markets may have felt from the conflict in Gaza, the Iran-Israel back-and-forth and the diversions of shipping away from the Red Sea (which may have faded from the news but continue) are apparently having no impact on oil prices. A reaction to those developments would tend to be macro in nature and would generally impact crude more than products.

But market weakness continues to show up in products markets, including diesel. And diesel in particular is getting a great deal of focus of late.

Diesel is increasingly being viewed as one of the primary reasons for the gradual fall in oil markets that has been occurring since early to mid-April. Whereas a few months ago, the rising price of oil was primarily attributed to a tight market for gasoline, the more recent weakness in oil overall is being laid firmly at the feet of the diesel market.

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East Coast retail diesel prices moving significantly higher than overall US hikes

East Coast retail diesel prices moving significantly higher than overall US hikes

Extremely tight inventories are seen as the driving factor blowing out spreads with benchmark Gulf Coast market

 East Coast diesel prices are racing ahead of the rest of the country. Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves

East Coast retail diesel prices are soaring relative to the rest of the country, propelled by inventories in the region that are almost half of what they normally should be at this time of year.

Retail prices recorded in the DTS data series in SONAR tell the story of how much diesel has surged. On Sept. 16, retail diesel in Allentown, Pennsylvania, a major logistics center, was $5.116 a gallon, while the Houston price was $4.513 a gallon, a spread of just over 60 cents. On Oct. 15, Allentown was $5.663 a gallon while Houston was $4.70, a 96.3 cent gap. By Thursday, Allentown was at $6.028 a gallon and Houston was $4.70 a gallon, a spread of $1.328 a gallon.

The green line represents the DTS.HOU price for average retail diesel prices in Houston. The blue shaded area is the DTS data for Allentown.

The East Coast price blowout has been propelled largely by the tight inventory situation in what is known as PADD 1, the Department of Energy’s designation for that region.

Weekly statistical data reported by the EIA this week had PADD 1 inventories of ultra low sulfur diesel at 21.3 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 21, a more than 7% decline in just one week. But more striking was the fact that those inventories are 56.5% of the five-year average for the corresponding October weeks, excluding the pandemic-influenced data from 2020.

By contrast, national inventories for all distillates, which are not broken down by specific grades, are running about 80-81% of the five-year average, and that is considered extremely tight by analysts.

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Sorry! Diesel prices are likely to climb again soon

Sorry! Diesel prices are likely to climb again soon

Behind the scenes of why fuel is so expensive in 2022

For today’s MODES, I called up FreightWaves Editor-at-Large John Kingston to find out what the heck is happening with diesel prices recently. I learned a lot, but the most important takeaway was the World Oil Market Waterbed Theory.

This conversation was lightly edited and condensed for clarity.  

FREIGHTWAVES: Just to start off pretty broad, the macro conditions are pretty much the same from what we saw earlier this year to what’s happening now. Obviously, we haven’t built any new refineries in the past few months. There’s still a war in Ukraine. Why is it that future prices are going down, and maybe not as quickly, but retail gasoline and diesel prices are also going down?

KINGSTON: “It’s a good question because it’s not really clear. I think part of the reason is that the news reports continue to trickle out about Russia doing relatively well in finding new buyers for its crude oil. Whereas, the International Energy Agency had predicted a couple of months ago that the loss of Russian supplies was going to be about 3 million barrels a day, which is roughly about 3% of the world market — which is a lot when you lose that much supply.

“I’m going to date myself with this reference, but it’s the best I can do. The world oil market is like a waterbed. If you push down one corner of the waterbed, the water moves throughout the entire mattress. If Russia is actually finding buyers for its oil that maybe had gone to Europe previously, but the oil is instead going to India or China, it’s the same as it getting out to its normal places…

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Yet another worry: Price of ship fuel is now highest since 2014

Yet another worry: Price of ship fuel is now highest since 2014

Bunker surcharges on the rise for shippers of containerized cargo

Commodity prices are surging around the globe, so it should come as no surprise: Marine fuel is getting a lot more expensive. That’s bad news for ship operators on the cost side, and, in the container business, yet another headache for cargo shippers.

Marine bunker prices are “soaring,” said Alphatanker on Thursday. “This has not just impacted 3.5% [high-sulfur fuel oil or HSFO] but also 0.5% VLSFO [very low sulfur fuel oil].

“There are expectations that crude, and therefore marine fuel, could move higher in the coming weeks as oil markets tighten further,” warned Alphatanker, adding, “This will undoubtedly clip gains in tanker earnings.”

All ship categories, not just tankers, are taking a cost hit. On Thursday, the S&P Global Platts T4 index estimated that a Capesize (a dry bulk ship with capacity of around 180,000 deadweight tons) burning VLSFO was spending $24,596 per day on fuel.

Ships equipped with exhaust-gas scrubbers are still able to burn cheaper HSFO under IMO 2020, a regulation that went into force for all commercial ships on Jan. 1, 2020. According to the Platts’ T4 Thursday assessment, scrubber-equipped Capes were paying $22,815 per day for fuel.

Why pricing is up and where it’s going

“The main driver for bunker pricing is the price of oil — that’s the key,” said Martyn Lasek, managing director of Ship & Bunker, a company that provides pricing data. “If you look at the relationship between Brent and VLSFO, it’s now pretty solid. There’s an established price trend.”

American Shipper asked Richard Joswick, head of global oil analytics at S&P Global Platts, where the price of crude — and thus ship fuel — is going.

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Canada border officers vote to strike, warn of supply chain disruption

Canada border officers vote to strike, warn of supply chain disruption

Labor action could begin Aug. 6

Thousands of Canada Border Services Agency personnel have overwhelmingly voted to authorize a strike – something that could throw a wrench into port, cross-border trucking, airfreight and international parcel operations.

The strike could happen as early as Aug. 6, the Public Service Alliance of Canada and its Customs and Immigration Union said on Tuesday. The union represents some 8,500 CBSA employees, including officers serving at ports of entry across the country.

The threat of a strike comes as Canada prepares to reopen its land border to nonessential travel for the first time since March 2020. The timing wasn’t lost on the union, which warned that a strike could lead to “significant disruption to the flow of goods.”

The impacts could bring delays to commercial vehicle traffic and impact parcel deliveries and duties collection, the union said.

CBSA officers serving in essential positions are legally barred from striking. But as American Shipper reported, the legal definition of essential is narrow in scope and doesn’t include collection of duties and taxes, according to a federal tribunal ruling.The Port of Vancouver appears particularly vulnerable as it contends with an unprecedented level of container ship traffic. As the largest port in Canada, any disruption there could have impacts throughout the country and intermodal rail and trucking operations.

The union members have been without a contract since 2018 and are seeking pay parity with other Canadian law enforcement agencies and protections against what they allege is a toxic workplace culture.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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