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This is how civilisations collapse
This is how civilisations collapse Last week, in an attempt to explain away the supply chain woes that are increasingly leading to goods shortages in America, President Biden cited a popular neoliberal fable. He observed that to make a pencil, wood and graphite must be sourced from the other ends of the world before the finished product can […]
How Breakdown Cascades Into Collapse
How Breakdown Cascades Into Collapse Maintaining the illusion of confidence, permanence and stability serves the interests of those benefiting from the bubbles and those who prefer the safety of the herd, even as the herd thunders toward the precipice. The misconception that collapse is an all or nothing phenomenon is common: Either the system rights itself with a […]
2021 is Already Optimized for Failure
2021 is Already Optimized for Failure One sure way to identify a system “optimized for failure” is if all the insiders are absolutely confident the system is “optimized for my success”. I often discuss optimization here because it offers an insightful window into how systems become fragile and break down. When we optimize something, we’re aiming to get […]
What’s the Real Meaning of the Stock Market Swoon?
What’s the Real Meaning of the Stock Market Swoon? Nobody dares discuss it openly for fear of triggering a panic, but there aren’t enough lifeboats for everyone. There’s no shortage of explanations on the whys and wherefores of the US stock market’s recent swoon / swan-dive / plummet. Here’s a few of the many credible […]
Soaring Deficits and Interest Costs Leave the U.S. Looking Very Fragile
Soaring Deficits and Interest Costs Leave the U.S. Looking Very Fragile If you take a step back and look at the macro picture of the U.S. economy – it resembles a huge, upside-down, glass pyramid. Constantly teetering back and forth – struggling with everything it has to keep from collapsing. And so far – it’s […]
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 1
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 1 Where is the world economy heading? In my opinion, a large portion of the story that we usually hear about how the world economy operates and the role energy plays is not really correct. In this post (to be continued in Part 2 in the near future), I […]
Introduction to the “World’s Fragile Economic Condition”
Introduction to the “World’s Fragile Economic Condition” I will be giving a presentation to a group of casualty actuaries on September 17 called “The World’s Fragile Economic Condition.” I plan to write up the presentation in two posts, one covering the first three of the six sections of the presentation, and the second one covering […]
How Things Fall Apart: Extremes Aren’t Stable
How Things Fall Apart: Extremes Aren’t Stable A funny thing happens on the way to stabilizing things by doing more of what’s failed: the system becomes even more unstable, brittle and fragile. A peculiar faith in pushing extremes to new heights has taken hold in official circles over the past decade: when past extremes push […]
How Systems Collapse
How Systems Collapse This is how systems collapse: faith in the visible surface of abundance reigns supreme, and the fragility of the buffers goes unnoticed. I often discuss systems and systemic collapse, and I’ve drawn up a little diagram to illustrate a key dynamic in systemic collapse. The key concepts here are stability and buffers. […]
Bull in a China Shop
BULL IN A CHINA SHOP “So the modern world may be increasing in technological knowledge, but, paradoxically, it is making things a lot more unpredictable.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder “Success brings an asymmetry: you now have a lot more to lose than to gain. You are hence fragile.” – […]
Systemic Uncertainty, Meet Fragility
Systemic Uncertainty, Meet Fragility That’s the problem with fragility: everything looks fine on the surface until a crisis applies pressure. Then the whole rickety contraption collapses in a heap.. Life is inherently uncertain, but systems that were once considered certainties have increasingly become uncertain. Social Security is one example; recent polls reflect widespread doubts among Millennials […]
Coming Apart: The Imperial City At The Brink
Coming Apart: The Imperial City At The Brink Thomas Cole Destruction of Empire 1836The Conflicts Forum, directed by former British diplomat and MI6 ‘ranking figure’ Alastair Crooke, sent me another unpublished article by Alastair and asked if the Automatic Earth would publish it. But of course. Previous articles by Alastair published here are: ‘End of […]
Coming Apart: The Imperial City At The Brink
Coming Apart: The Imperial City At The Brink Thomas Cole Destruction of Empire 1836The Conflicts Forum, directed by former British diplomat and MI6 ‘ranking figure’ Alastair Crooke, sent me another unpublished article by Alastair and asked if the Automatic Earth would publish it. But of course. Previous articles by Alastair published here are: ‘End of […]
Why Even a Modest Disruption Will Shatter the Status Quo
Why Even a Modest Disruption Will Shatter the Status Quo Any modest reduction in debt, tax revenues, consumption or new borrowing will bring the entire Status Quo crashing down. Consider this clipping from the August 1932 San Francisco Chronicle newspaper: “Reduction of salaries of municipal employees and limitation of city positions to only one member […]
No Serious Financial Repercussions from the Paris Attacks? Don’t Be Too Sure
No Serious Financial Repercussions from the Paris Attacks? Don’t Be Too Sure Global sentiment might switch decisively from “risk-on” to “risk-off” with far-reaching consequences. Goldman Sachs has helpfully announced that any financial repercussions from the attacks in Paris will be short-lived, and the political repercussions will be medium-term: Increased uncertainty likely to weigh on activity and […]
