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Minsky Melt-up Explained?!?

Minsky Melt-up Explained?!?

America (and the world at large) are in the midst of an entirely predictable demographically driven crisis, between an economic/financial system requiring infinite growth and a very finite human/physical world (detailed HERE, or HERE).  This mismatch will only become more acute for decades to come.  As the growth of demand is decelerating, central banks are using interest rate policy cuts to encourage higher consumption via greater leverage/debt.  Federal debt is soaring absent the economic (and tax revenue) growth to accompany this deluge of debt.  I will show that the primary purchasing sources of that debt have turned to net sellers…and that into this breach, the Fed has thrust itself as the buyer (counterfeiter) of last resort.  The result is likely to be a Minsky Melt-Up…and then the fall that typically follows.
First, by year end 2020 (estimated below), federal debt will almost surely cross $28 trillion while GDP will collapse in Q2 with likely recovery through Q3/Q4.  The outcome will be a debt to GDP ratio likely around 140%…smashing the WWII previous high water mark.  Noteworthy also in the chart below are the new standards of ZIRP and reliance on the Federal Reserve balance sheet (QE) to maintain zero percent interest rates.

Since 2008, public (marketable) federal debt has nearly quadrupled, up by $14.7 trillion.  Social Security and like Intragovernmental trust fund holdings have risen $1.8 trillion.  The Federal Reserve balance sheet has increased by 8x’s, up by $6.3 trillion.  In fact, most simply, it is the Federal Reserve using it’s balance sheet as the substitute for the demographically decelerating IG purchasing.  As the IG holdings will only continue to decline due to the unfunded liabilities (and with it the primary source of Treasury buying for decades turns to a decade of Treasury selling), the Fed’s balance sheet will rise inversely to avoid an interest rate Armageddon.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Weekly Commentary: $247 Trillion and (Rapidly) Counting

Weekly Commentary: $247 Trillion and (Rapidly) Counting

I chronicled mortgage finance Bubble excess on a weekly basis. Relevant data were right there in plain sight, much of it courtesy of the Federal Reserve. Yet only after the Bubble burst did it all suddenly become obvious. Flashing warning signs were masked by manic delusions of endless prosperity and faith in the almighty “inside the beltway”. These days, data for the global government finance Bubble is not as easily-accessible, though there is ample evidence for which to draw conclusions. It will all be frustratingly obvious in hindsight.

The Institute of International Finance is out with their latest data that, unfortunately, is not made available in detail to the general public. Global debt ended the first quarter at a record $247 Trillion, or 318% of GDP. Even after a decade of historic Credit inflation, global debt continues to expand at (“Terminal Phase”) double-digit rates (11.1% y-o-y).

Global debt growth accelerated during the first quarter to $8.0 Trillion – and surged $30 Trillion over just the past five quarters. In a single data point not to be disregarded, Global Debt Has Expanded (a difficult to fathom) $150 Trillion, or 150%, Over the Past Ten Years. Actually, the trajectory of Bubble-period Credit expansion may seem rather familiar. It’s been, after all, a replay of the reckless U.S. mortgage Credit episode, only on a much grander global scale.

July 10 – Financial Times (Jonathan Wheatley): “The amount of debt in the world increased by nearly $25tn in the year to the end of March, piling more pressure on a global financial system already struggling to deal with rising US interest rates, widening spreads for borrowers and a strengthening US dollar. The Institute of International Finance… said total debts owed by households, governments and financial and non-financial corporations amounted to $247.2tn at the end of March, up from $222.6tn a year earlier and an increase of nearly $8tn in the first quarter alone.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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