Home » Posts tagged 'fed chair'

Tag Archives: fed chair

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

Weekly Commentary: Chronicling for Posterity 

Weekly Commentary: Chronicling for Posterity 

Janet Yellen’s Wednesday news conference was her final as Fed chair. Dr. Yellen has a long and distinguished career as an economist and public servant. Her four-year term at the helm of the Federal Reserve is almost universally acclaimed. History, however, will surely treat her less kindly. Yellen has been a central figure in inflationist dogma and a fateful global experiment in radical monetary stimulus. In her four years at the helm, the Yellen Fed failed to tighten financial conditions despite asset inflation and speculative excess beckoning for policy normalization.

Ben Bernanke has referred to the understanding of the forces behind the Great Depression as “the holy grail of economics.” When today’s historic global Bubble bursts, the “grail” quest will shift to recent decades. Yellen’s comments are worthy of chronicling for posterity.

CNBC’s Steve Liesman: “Every day it seems we look at the stock market, it goes up triple digits in the Dow Jones. To what extent are there concerns at the Federal Reserve about current market valuations? And do they now or should they, do you think, if we keep going on the trajectory, should that animate monetary policy?”

Chair Yellen: “OK, so let me start, Steve, with the stock market generally. I mean, of course, the stock market has gone up a great deal this year. And we have in recent months characterized the general level of asset valuations as elevated. What that reflects is simply the assessment that looking at price-earnings ratios and comparable metrics for other assets other than equities, we see ratios that are in the high end of historical ranges. And so that’s worth pointing out.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Eric Peters: “This Is The Nightmare Scenario For The Next Fed Chair”

Eric Peters: “This Is The Nightmare Scenario For The Next Fed Chair”

While we will have much more to share from the latest weekend letter by One River’s Eric Peters shortly, we found the following section on inflation vs asset bubbles – a topic which BofA’s Michael Hartnett has been focusing extensively on in the past year and which serves as the basis for the “Icarus Rally” – particularly notable as it explains all of today’s comments from Janet Yellen and other central bankers, discussing why it is only a matter of time before inflation returns, as the alternative, as Peters’ explains, is a world in which yields simply refuse to go up, leading to a nightmare scenario for the next Fed chair, who will be forced to pop the world’s biggest asset bubble.

Excerpted from the latest weekend notes by One River CIO, Eric Peters:

“Why are we not experiencing deflation?” he asked. “How can the top five stocks in the Nasdaq reduce US GDP but we feel better off?” he asked. “Why are Americans buying no more cars today than in 1978 when our population is 100mm higher?” he asked. “Why compare today to a world of combustion engines when we have so many more interesting things to do without moving an inch?” he asked.

“And why do central banks create endless bubbles to restore an inflation rate from that ancient time?” he asked. “Why is that not the right question?” 

“Global profits are rising, unemployment is falling, growth is up, wages too,” said the strategist.

Yet bond yields seem unable to jump.” US 10yr bond yields are 2.27%, Germany 0.40%, Japan 0.05%. “The cyclical surprise is that the Phillips curve finally kicks in, just as everyone gives in.” US unemployment is 4.2%, a 17yr low. Germany 3.6%, a 37yr low. Japan 2.8%, a 23yr low. “And the biggest structural surprise is that technology has rendered wage inflation a phenomenon for the history books.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress