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Weekly Commentary: Controllable
Weekly Commentary: Controllable Now that was wild. Let’s start with the Chinese developers. Indicative of the more troubled companies, Kaisa Group bond yields surged to almost 51% in Wednesday trading, up from 36% to begin the week (20% to start the month). Yields closed the week at 44.7%. After beginning the week at 23.3% (October […]
Contagion!
Contagion! There has been a litany of bad news recently, including the U.S. August humiliation in Afghanistan, China’s aggressive actions against Taiwan and increased tensions with Iran, North Korea and Russia. It will take the U.S. years, possibly decades, to recover from the debacle of August 2021 and the collapse of American prestige. All of […]
Weekly Commentary: Contagion
Weekly Commentary: Contagion Another big miss for non-farm payrolls, with September’s 194,000 jobs gain less than half the 500,000 forecast. But with the Unemployment Rate down to 4.8% and Average Hourly Earnings up 4.6% y-o-y (not to mention almost 11 million job openings), there’s ample evidence that much of the labor market has turned exceptionally […]
“Catastrophic” Property Sales Mean China’s Worst Case Scenario Is Now In Play
“Catastrophic” Property Sales Mean China’s Worst Case Scenario Is Now In Play No matter how the Evergrande drama plays out – whether it culminates with an uncontrolled, chaotic default and/or distressed asset sale liquidation, a controlled restructuring where bondholders get some compensation, or with Beijing blinking and bailing out the core pillar of China’s housing […]
Evergrande Contagion Threatens to Collapse the Everything Bubble
Evergrande Contagion Threatens to Collapse the Everything Bubble Photo by Hyunwon Jang “Evergrande, a real-estate colossus in China, is collapsing. Don’t expect the collapse to be contained to China. The global macro implications are huge.” – Mike Shedlock The U.S. economy is staring down the barrel of a financial shotgun thanks to the Chinese real estate bubble that […]
Is Evergrande a symptom of deeper malaise?
Is Evergrande a symptom of deeper malaise? Evergrande’s imminent default is rocking markets – but few believe the collapse of a Chinese property developer could trigger a global financial crisis. What if Evergrande is just a symptom of a deeper malaise within the Chinese economy and its political/business structures? Maybe there is more at stake […]
China’s Crackdown on Debt, Tech & Evergrande Sends Frazzled Wall Street Titans to China
China’s Crackdown on Debt, Tech & Evergrande Sends Frazzled Wall Street Titans to China The property sector and its debts are possibly the biggest financial mess in China’s history. The crackdowns by Chinese authorities on some of the biggest hype-and-hoopla industries have sent investors heading for the exits. There is a crackdown on debt to […]
Rabobank: As With Evergiven, Evergrande Is Just The Symtpom Of Far Larger Problems
Rabobank: As With Evergiven, Evergrande Is Just The Symtpom Of Far Larger Problems It’s Ever Something On 23 March, the giant cargo vessel Evergiven got stuck in the Suez Canal and blocked it for six days. Obviously, this dominated global headlines. Even Joe Shmoe could see global supply chains were not operating efficiently because of […]
Evergrande Misses Debt Payments Due Monday As World’s Richest Banker Says China’s “Lehman Moment” Has Arrived
Evergrande Misses Debt Payments Due Monday As World’s Richest Banker Says China’s “Lehman Moment” Has Arrived Wall Street analysts have been churning out commentary this week proclaiming that while Evergrande’s troubles pose a serious threat to the Chinese economy, it’s potential collapse doesn’t represent a “Lehman Moment”. As Thursday’s bond-interest deadline looms, analysts at Mizuho […]
China Systemic Risk: HNA Group Denies Liquidity Problem, It’s Only “End-Of-The-Year Tightness”
China Systemic Risk: HNA Group Denies Liquidity Problem, It’s Only “End-Of-The-Year Tightness” Every few days at the moment, it seems, we return to the subject of systemic risk in China related to its big four highly-indebted conglomerates, HNA, Anbang, Evergrande and Dalian Wanda. Our main source of concern recently has been HNA, after it issued […]
