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Coire Glas – the raging beast of pumped hydro storage

Coire Glas – the raging beast of pumped hydro storage

What makes current PHS tick?

Most pumped hydro storage schemes in countries like the UK, France and Switzerland operate in tandem with nuclear power where surplus (low price) electricity is used to pump and store water at night, every night, to supply power into the daily peak demand (high price) that in the UK occurs at 18:00±2 hours. The facilities get used every day and make money from the predictable price arbitrage that exists in wholesale electricity markets.

Low latitude solar may tick too

At low latitudes, solar PV may also be twinned with battery storage to cover the predictable diurnal cycle where surplus day time solar PV electricity may be used at night – every day and every night. And for so long as the goal is to not disconnect from the grid, this could make sense subject to prevailing electricity costs and the capital costs of installing a PV + battery system.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Energy Externalities Day 5: Wind Power

Energy Externalities Day 5: Wind Power

It’s now day 5 of the Energy Externality Game and time to move onto the first of the new renewables, namely wind power. Loved by Green groups who see only reduced CO2 emissions, wind farms are hated by many others who see a blot on the landscape. Here at Energy Matters we normally just see high cost noise being added to a grid that needs to be balanced from second to second with some precision. This high cost noise needs to be mitigated and the cost of that mitigation is normally borne by others, not the wind farm operators.

The Externalities of Energy Production Systems (Day 1 Coal)
Energy Externalities Day 2: Gas-fired-CCGT
Energy Externalities Day 3: Biomass-Fired-Electricity
Energy Externalities Day 4: Nuclear Power

I am proposing to use 12 metrics to measure costs and benefits:

  • Fatalities / year / unit of energy produced
  • Chronic illness years / year / unit of energy produced
  • Environmental costs not covered directly by the system operators
  • Foot print of energy system per unit of energy produced
  • Energy system costs where energy source transfers costs to the transmission system
  • Energy system benefits where energy source provides a service to the transmission system
  • Environmental benefits derived from energy system operation
  • Taxes raised / year / for total energy produced
  • Subsidies paid / year / for total energy produced
  • Tax free cost of energy
  • EroEI
  • Resource availability

For the following 12 electricity generating systems

  • Coal-fired (Monday 19 March)
  • Gas-fired (Tuesday 20 March)
  • Biomass-fired
  • Diesel
  • Nuclear
  • Hydro electric
  • Wind
  • Solar PV
  • Solar thermal
  • Wave
  • Tidal
    • barrage
    • lagoon
    • stream
  • Geothermal

I then go on to provide qualitative assessments of each measure for each electricity system. I have then developed a game whereby we assign a score against each measure on a scale of 1 to 10 where.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Beast from the East and European Energy Security

The Beast from the East and European Energy Security

European energy security is a subject I return to time and again normally prompted by some kind of event. This time it is severe cold weather and snow that has spread from Siberia over the whole of North and Western Europe, rather late in the season, at a time when gas storage is depleted. There are some compounding factors like the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands is substantially reduced and the UKs biggest gas storage facility – Rough – has been closed. Will the lights stay on? Probably yes, but only because governments may ask large industrial consumers to scale back or shut down their operations. At a time when social services are being cut to the bone, is this really the time for government energy policies to be eroding national GDP?

The Beast from the East

This cold weather pattern has been christened the beast from the East by the British press. So what is it? Essentially atmospheric circulation has gone into reverse. Instead of receiving normally mild south westerlies, we are getting a very cold easterly air stream as Figure 1 shows. As I have said repeatedly on this blog, the likely reason for this anomalous behaviour is changes to solar spectrum linked to low magnetic activity and circulation within  the solar plasma. We observe all this complexity as changes in sunspot number and length of the sunspot cycle.

Figure 1 Screen capture ~ 18:00 hours from Windy.com (HT Gunther) Tuesday 27 February. All the arrows over Europe are pointing West. London -3˚C, Paris -3˚C, Berlin -7˚C, Warsaw -11˚C and Oslo -11˚C. Energy for heating will be in high demand.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The ERoEI of Mining Uranium

The ERoEI of Mining Uranium

In 2009, in the comments to this post on The Oil Drum we stumbled upon a mine of information on the operation of the Rossing uranium mine in Namibia. The data table provided numbers for the amount of energy used on site together with the amount of uranium mined. This provided an opportunity to calculate the energy return of the mining operation. Simply put ERoEI = energy contained in the U / the energy used to mine and refine it. There are some complexities but back then I calculated an ERoEI of 1200:1 The data has been updated and fresh calculations are presented below.

First a few words about Rossing. The mine is operated by Rio Tinto, one of the world’s largest mining companies. Discovered in 1928, operations began in 1976. According to Wikipedia Rossing is the 5th largest U mine in the world. The uranium ore is mined, milled and refined at Rossing and the energy numbers here reflect energy used to go from rock to yellow cake (U3O8 inset image up top).

Figure 1 Rossing mine.

Figure 2 Location map from Rio Tinto. Rossing is by Arandis (red dot)

The performance table provides data over 5 years:

Figure 3 Performance table from Rio Tinto.

My calculations are based on 2016.

The first important number to pick out is the energy use on site: 2,528,000 GJ [1]

The second is the uranium oxide produced: 1,850,000 kg [2]

The atomic mass of U = 238 and O = 16. U3O8 = 842 amu. U/U3O8 = 714/842 = 0.848

The third important number is uranium metal produced = 1,850,000 * 0.848 = 1,568,880 kg [3]

We can now calculate the fourth important number which is energy used to mine 1 kg = 2,528,000 GJ / 1,568,880 kg = 1,611 MJ/kg [4]

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Production Vital Statistics January 2018

Oil Production Vital Statistics January 2018

The oil price has begun 2018 strongly with Brent breaking through $70 / bbl for the first time since December 2014. OPEC+Russia+others’ discipline on production constraint remains high with ~ 1.7 Mbd production withheld from the market. The IEA reports an ~1 Mbpd stock draw in the OECD + China in 4Q 2017. IEA revisions transform the picture in the USA from one of static production to one of strong growth over the last 3 months (this undoes one of the assumptions used in my 2018 oil price forecast).

The inset image (live chart below the fold) shows a slow motion train wreck in Venezuela where production has fallen 810,000 bpd since December 2014.

The dramatic slide in oil production in Venezuela began ~ December 2014. We have to presume that the collapse in the oil price has something to do with this. There is however no sign that rising price, now offset by falling production, is averting that country’s collapse. The oil price was held back in 2017 by rising production in Nigeria and Libya. Production in Libya is now holding steady at ~ 1 Mbpd  and production in Nigeria is holding steady at ~ 1.65 Mbpd. According to the IEA, OPEC compliance with the agreed cuts is now running at 129% in part due to the unscheduled collapse in Venezuelan supply.

I have been following bio-fuel production, pointing out that it had been on a cyclical high last autumn and was scheduled to fall by ~ 1 Mbpd over the winter. This fall is duly underway (below). This, combined with the collapse of Venezuela and continued OPEC++ discipline has underpinned the strong oil price rally.

The following totals compare December 2016 with December 2017:

  • World Total Liquids 97.87/97.59 -280,000 bpd
  • OPEC 12: 32.87/31.89 -980,000 bpd
  • Russia + FSU 14.53/14.44 -90,000 bpd
  • Europe OECD 3.66/3.24 -420,000 bpd
  • Asia 7.57/7.20 -370,000
  • North America 19.48/21.04 +1,560,000 bpd

In summary, we see production constraint in OPEC+Russia, production decline in Asia and Europe offset by production growth in N America.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Death of Sunspot Cycle 24, Huge Snow and Record Cold

The Death of Sunspot Cycle 24, Huge Snow and Record Cold

My friend Alex is in Chamonix in the shadow of Mont Blanc in the French Alps. He sent some very snowy pics and mentioned that it was fair dinging down. The most snow since 2010. Knowing that sunspot cycle 24 was well-advanced I did some checking and came across a web site called Weather to Ski that had some amazing pics of big snow. One picture in particular caught my attention. See inset and below the fold.

Figure 1 Huge snow depth in the Alps. It is possible that the snow depth here is influenced by the road, snow blowers piling snow up along the route, and also drifting snow getting trapped in the ravine. But still, 8m is a lot. A cross country skier would be confronted with enormous difficulty crossing this road.

It looks like the snow in this drift is ~ 8m deep. And this is in the valley, not in the high basins where the snow fields that feed the glaciers lie. Now it’s obviously far too early to begin to draw any conclusions. But IF we get a run of 3 or 4 winters that dump this much snow, it is not inconceivable for me to imagine Alpine glaciers once again beginning to advance. I’m totally unsure how long it takes for pressure in the glacier source to feed through to advance of the snout.

So what is going on? We’ve been told by climate scientists that snow would become a thing of the past. We’ve also been told that global warming might lead to more snow and less snow. And we’ve been told that warming might even lead to cooling.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Cosmic Rays, Magnetic Fields and Climate Change

Cosmic Rays, Magnetic Fields and Climate Change

In my recent post on The Cosmogenic Isotope Record and the Role of The Sun in Shaping Earth’s Climatean interesting discussion developed in comments where there was a fair amount of disagreement among my sceptical colleagues. A few days later, retired Apollo astronaut Phil Chapman sent me this article which lays some of the doubts to rest. Phil never got to fly in space but was mission Scientist on Apollo 14. It is not every day I get the opportunity to publish an article from such a pre-eminent scientist.

1. Sunspots and GCRs

There is absolutely no doubt that solar activity (via the solar wind) directly affects the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) reaching the Earth. The lower curve in Figure 1 shows the monthly average sunspot count since 1958, from the database (SILSO) maintained by the Royal Observatory of Belgium and the upper chart gives the monthly average GCR flux (as percentage deviations from the average for the period), as measured by the neutron monitor in Moscow.

Note that the scale for GCRs is inverted, increasing downward, to facilitate comparison with the sunspot record; that the major time division is 11 years, to illustrate the well- known approximate periodicity of the sunspot cycle; and that the GCR minimum usually lags the sunspot maximum by a year or two. The linear trend lines in the figure show the decline in the average number of sunspots since the early 1990s and the corresponding increase in GCRs, as we began a new Grand Solar Minimum (already named the Eddy Minimum by the solar physics community).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Cosmogenic Isotope Record and the Role of The Sun in Shaping Earth’s Climate

The Cosmogenic Isotope Record and the Role of The Sun in Shaping Earth’s Climate

The defining division between “climate sceptics” and “greenhouse gas warmists” is the role of the Sun in causing Earth’s climate to oscillate. The anecdotal evidence for a significant solar role comes from the observation that during the Little Ice Age (LIA) sunspots were virtually absent from the Sun for a few decades – and in Europe at least it was periodically very cold. The HARD scientific evidence that backs this up comes from cosmogenic isotope variations that provide a record of solar geomagentic activity. It is surprising therefore that The Geological Society of London’s (GSL) 2010 position statement on climate change does not mention the incredible cosmogenic isotope record at all.

The omission was corrected in the 2013 addendum but unfortunately the addendum  does not fully represent what the cosmogenic isotope record tells us. This post is a response to the GSL’s addendum, at 3,700 words too long to include as a comment on the original post.

The original post on the GSL 2010 statement and 2013 addendum is at the following link:
The Geological Society of London’s Statement on Climate Change

The GSL 2013 addendum is at the following link:
An addendum to the Statement on Climate Change: Evidence from the Geological Record

[Inset image at top, an Inuit canoe that was paddled into the estuary of the river Don, Aberdeen by an Inuit, year 1728. Extensive sea ice and northerly winds must have played a role in the common visits of Inuit to Scottish shores at these times. He was accompanied by ice bergs that drizzled sediment on the ocean floor leaving an amazing record for geologists to study.]

The Isotope Revolution

Measuring isotope variations in geological materials revolutionised geology and our undersatnding of The Earth.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Geological Society of London’s Statement on Climate Change

The Geological Society of London’s Statement on Climate Change

A group of geologists have drawn my attention to the 2010/2013 Geological Society of London‘s statement on climate change and asked if I could arrange an on-line discussion about it. The lead author of the statements is Dr Colin Summerhayes who has participated as guest blogger and commenter on Energy Matters before. And so I asked if I could reproduce the statements on these pages and invite informed commentary. This modus operandi was approved by Dr Summerhayes’ co-authors and the committee of the Geological Society of London.

Main sources:

Climate change: evidence from the geological record
A statement from the Geological Society of London November 2010

An addendum to the Statement on Climate Change: Evidence from the Geological Record
December 2013

The addendum is arranged such that some sections are unchanged from the original. For other sections additional information is provided, but this is not merged with the original content. Its is therefore not possible to read a single updated report. What I have provided below is the full text of the original 2010 statement which is ~ 3000 words long and a copy of the 2013 Addendum summary. Those who want to read the full addendum should simply use the link provided above.

The Discussion in comments

What I am soliciting in primary comments is informed opinion driven mainly by what data tells us, backed up by references to data sources. Primary comments may also take the form of questions.

What I am not going to permit is social commentary and chit chat. Comments will be strictly moderated.

What I am aiming for is to assemble information in one place that either supports or refutes the position of The Geological Society.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The 2018 Oil Production Forecast Explained

The 2018 Oil Production Forecast Explained

In my recent post, Oil Price Scenario for 2018, my global supply forecast was seriously at odds with those presented by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Rystad Energy, a respected Norwegian consulting firm. This post puts more flesh on my 2018 oil production view. The post could easily have been called “Oil Production Forecasting for Beginners” and explains things like decline rates and oilfield interventions in addition to presenting an overview of global production and rig count statistics. The second half of the post is effectively Oil Production Vital Statistics for December based on the Energy Matters Global Energy Graphed database.

The Rystad View

The Rystad view on US oil production and future oil price is very different to my own. They see US oil production up 2 Mbpd and a virtually static oil price from 2017 to 2018. Rystad have a vast data base of relevant data and so I would not bet against them being right. Its just that I cannot see any evidence for their forecast in the data I review. Today, Brent was above $69 / bbl and the Rystad view is mean $55 / bbl in 2018. So they are forecasting another oil price crash.

Figure 1 The Rystad Sep 2017 view of US production. This non-zero scaled chart should be compared with actual US production (Figure 2).

Natural Oil Field Production Declines

A good way to summarise oil field operating dynamics is to begin with a spanking new oil field, recently discovered with 10 production wells drilled on it. Once the platform is installed, production begins and because of the high reservoir pressure the oil gushes out at an aggregate rate of 100,000 bpd (barrels per day). In fact, it wants to gush so fast that the wells are chocked back to control the flow.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Virtual Energy

Virtual Energy

Has the day of the smart computer controlled micro-grid arrived? They reduce dependency on power from large centralised utilities whilst at the same time empowering communities to become self sufficient in energy supplies. Blockchain computer code is the enabling technology that allows the vendor of surplus solar power to trade with a neighbour who wants to buy electricity.

Disclaimer

It is rare for me to write on a topic that I do not understand. It is equally rare for me to spend several hours trying to understand a topic and to be not much wiser after doing so. Some or all of what I have written here may turn out to be nonsense and readers are well advised to take no actions based on my words.

Microgrids

For a long while, I have read energy articles in the Green Tech Press which I believe are utter rubbish and I have understood the technical reasons why this is so. More recently I have been finding it increasingly hard to understand the jargon particularly with regards to the application of blockchain technology and I decided it was time to try and find out what is going on. This, for example from General Electric:

But the lasting impact of bitcoin may end up being blockchain, the technology that makes the currency work. Blockchain has the potential to integrate renewable energy into the electricity grid in a way that is clean, easy and meaningful to the average energy consumer.

The graphic is from General Electric Corporation and is for Carros on the Mediterranean coast of France (see below). GE continues…

This is all doable because Carros is home to the world’s first smart solar grid: a large scale experiment to integrate renewables into the grid. GE worked with French grid operator Enedis to install solar panels on residential and commercial rooftops, implement demand response technologies and create battery storage across the grid.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s “Hualong 1” passes the first stage of the UK GDA process

China’s “Hualong 1” passes the first stage of the UK GDA process

With little fanfare last week, the Chinese designed HPR1000 (previously Hualong-1), pressurised water reactor, cleared the first of four stages in the General Design Assessment (GDA) administered by the UK Office of Nuclear Regulation (ONR). China General Nuclear (CGN) proposes to build 2 reactors of this design at the Bradwell site in England, in partnership with French state-owned EDF that currently operates all UK commercial reactors.

This guest post by Andy Dawson gives a preliminary overview of the design focussing on safety systems.

Introduction

As almost all readers of the blog will be aware, a team of EdF and China General Nuclear (CGN) have proposed the construction of a Chinese designed nuclear station at Bradwell, in Essex. On Thursday of this week, the UK Office of Nuclear Regulation announced that the design proposed for the station -the “HPR1000”, originally known as the “Hualong-1” has successfully completed the first, preparatory stage of the Generic Design Approval (GDA) process. This appears to have been completed on time, or perhaps a few weeks early.

While we shouldn’t over-state the importance of this particular transition – GDA is a four stage process, in which stages 2 & 3 are where the great majority of the detailed evaluation of the design from a safety perspective is undertaken – it is important in that it’s the first point at which the developers have to publish reasonably detailed data on the design. That data is available here.

This piece is intended to give an overview of the design, highlighted particular strengths and weaknesses that may affect the GDA outcome, and giving a comparison against the virtues and vices of the other contenders for UK build.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Production Vital Statistics September 2017

Oil Production Vital Statistics September 2017

On around June 28th the price of WTI and Brent once again began to diverge and the spread now stands at over $7. The WTI – Brent spread was a feature of the high oil price era and its reappearance could be a bullish signal for the oil price. While WTI is trading sideways the Brent chart is bullish having decisively broken through resistance at $55. North American production has recovered from July 2016 lows to stand at 19.91 Mbpd in August 2017. OPEC remains largely compliant with the agreed production cuts but this is significantly undone by production increases of 230,000 bpd in Nigeria and 360,000 bpd in Libya (total +590,000 bpd since the October 2016 datum), who were not party to the OPEC deal. The recovery in North Sea Oil production that began in October 2012 is now faltering and this observation alone may explain why the Brent oil price is staging a recovery.

This is the first oil production report for 3 months. There are two reasons for this. First, my son Neil who created and maintained the Google Sheets databases landed a job as an energy analyst 🙂 Second, the markets tend to move too slowly to warrant monthly commentary. I will therefore continue with occasional / quarterly reports. The other good news is that Google has re-instated the functionality of these live charts. Hover the cursor over the chart to read the data that lies below. Note that the order in the data box is inverse to the order plotted on the chart.

[Inset image shows idle drilling rigs stacked in the Moray Firth of Scotland.]

Drilling activity as measured using rig counts remains close to a cyclical high in OPEC. The return of drillers in the USA has stalled with US total rigs on 940 on 29th September, well up from the recent low of 469 seen in May last year but still well below the high of >2000 seen in December 2011.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Real Cost of Offshore Wind

The Real Cost of Offshore Wind

A couple of weeks ago (I think September 11) I was watching BBC news mid morning, following the Hurricane Irma story and I happened to catch an editorial on the recent CfD auction where the lowest bids for offshore wind came in at £57.50 / MWh, well below the bids in the first round where £120 per MWh were the norm. The young female presenter interviewed the CEO of Renewables UK and a number of untrue statements were made. I put this down to ignorance on the part of the BBC and duplicity on the part of Emma Pinchbeck from Renewable UK. Every time I see a report like this I want to send a complaint to the BBC – but I just don’t have the time. And there are encouraging signs that the BBC are trying to get their act together. In the Web version of the story they do interview EDF and get the opinion from the nuclear side of the tracks.

[Inset image is one of the sub-stations on the Beauly-Denny power line. Politicians tend to look at projects like this and see jobs and prosperity. The alternative view that tends to be overlooked are additional capital and maintenace costs that have to be added to electricity bills.]

Let me begin with some of the errors made in the BBC news piece which I am recounting from memory.

Government Subsidy

Contracts for difference (CfD) were referred to as a government subsidy paid for by the tax payer which they are not (this mistake is repeated in the web version of the report). They are instead a price guarantee to the generating company legislated for by the government and paid for by the BILL PAYER. If the prevailing price for wholesale electricity is £45 / MWh the bill payer still has to pay £57.50. The “subsidy” element is the £12.50 additional payment.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Atlantic Hurricane Trends and Mortality

Atlantic Hurricane Trends and Mortality

Since 1851 there has been on average 5.4±2.5 (1SD) Atlantic Hurricanes per annum. There is a clear trend of rising frequency from 4.4 Hurricanes per annum in 1851 to 6.3 per annum today, that is a rate of increase of 1.2 hurricanes per annum per century.

Mortality from Hurricanes has also risen but at a rate that is only a small fraction of the growth in population. On average a Hurricane is expected to kill 135 people today but with a huge range from a handful to several thousands depending upon where landfall is made and severity. While tragic, this is a tiny cost that is dwarfed by the thousands of lives saved through deployment of better shelter, early warning, evacuation and rescue by helicopters, boats and vehicles; all provided by fossil fuels.

Once again I venture on to territory I’m sure must have been covered a hundred times before and one I know very little about. Are Atlantic Hurricanes becoming more frequent, getting worse and are they killing more people?

The answers. Yes, they seem to be getting more frequent. I don’t have the data to hand to say if they are getting worse. And yes, they are killing more people, but in a proportion that is way below population growth in affected areas. Machines, infrastructure and communications all built from or powered by fossil fuels are offering far greater safety from these natural disasters when they occur, saving many thousands of lives.

I want to begin by offering sympathy to all those affected by these on-going tragic events. We will send help out of our generosity.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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