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Liquidity Crisis & the Pending European Banking Crisis

October 2, 2019

Liquidity Crisis & the Pending European Banking Crisis 

A lot of people have been writing in about the liquidity crisis and the banks with exposure to Deutsche Bank. This is clearly the European Banking Crisis we have been warning about. Most European (and Swiss) banks are having to overpay 30-40bps over libor. Even A+ rated banks are having to pay this premium.

Keep in mind that the Lehman and Bear crisis took place in the REPO market. This is why the crisis is appearing in a market most never hear about or see in interest rates. Those in Europe who have a position in cash, it may be better to have shares or a private sector bond or US Treasury. Given the policy in Europe of no bailouts, leaving cash sitting in your account could expose you to risk in the months ahead.

In all honesty, if this explodes in Europe, no-one will be safe and it will be pot-luck who’s cash you will be holding when it hits the fan. The Fed will bailout the US banks, but it cannot get involved in bailing out the European banks. This is becoming a clash in public policy which all stems from the FAILUREto have consolidated the debts. That refusal to consolidate, the terms demanded by Germany, also precludes bailouts where the money would cross borders. They want to pretend this is one happy family, but they insist on separate accounts.

As one European banker put it in a private conversation, it is almost a calm collapse. As I have REPEATEDLY warned, we are facing scenarios that nobody has ever seen before. The interconnectivity runs so deep, this clash in public policies can result in a serious crisis emanating from Europe.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

European Banking Crisis

September 23, 2017

European Banking Crisis

Perhaps this period will be looked back upon ass the Draghi Deflation. After nearly 10 years of this failed policy, the European banking industry is contracting on every possible level. The merger of Commerzbank to Merge with French BNP is one possibility. Commerzbank is a takeover candidate or shotgun wedding candidate, for good reasons. Its shares have fallen and are trading now at half their book value. When interest rates rise to bring back deposits, then the bank could perhaps get out of its deep hole. The German government, which has a 15 percent stake after a bailout in 2009, is ready to sell looking to raise cash itself.

The Draghi era of negative interest rates has proven to be a complete disaster. People have withdrawn money and preferred to buy safes. Major banks with branches in the USA have shipped their cash to the American branch and deposited at the Fed in excessive reserves. Meanwhile, with deflation dominating the European economy and rising taxation, the average person is just not interested in borrowing until they see the economy turn around.

On top of these issues, to survive, European banks have been withdrawing from proprietary trading, firing expensive staff with experience, and replacing them with inexperienced kids. Additionally, the low-interest environment and the decline in deposits has resulted in a major contraction in bank branches. As banks also move to online banking, they have been able to reduce staff. In 2016, the banks let go some 50,000 jobs. They were also able to close some 9100 branches throughout the EU, according to the European Banking Association.Consequently, now the banking work force has been reduced to 2.8 million people contracting back to 1997 levels. We will most likely see a further reduction of at least 5% going into early 2018. We will see further mergers and consolidation reducing jobs and branches into 2020.

The Price Of Silver Explodes Past 20 Dollars An Ounce As The European Banking Crisis Deepens

July 5, 2016

The Price Of Silver Explodes Past 20 Dollars An Ounce As The European Banking Crisis Deepens

Silver Coins 2 - Public DomainHave you seen what the price of silver has been doing?  On Monday, it exploded past 20 dollars an ounce, and as I write this article it is sitting at $20.48.  Earlier today it actually surged above 21 dollars an ounce for a short time before moving back just a bit.  In late March, I told my readers that silver was “ridiculously undervalued” when it was sitting at $15.81 an ounce, and that call has turned out to be quite prescient.  The Friday before last, silver started the day at $17.25 an ounce, and it is up more than 18 percent since that time.  Overall, silver is up more than 30 percent for the year, and that makes it one of the best performing investments of 2016.  So what is causing this sudden surge in the price of silver?  This is something that we will discuss below…

This sudden spike in the price of silver has definitely caught a lot of analysts off guard.  Some are suggesting that the fact that the Fed is now less likely to raise rates after the Brexit and the fact that the dollar has been slipping a bit lately are the primary reasons for silver’s rise…

This isn’t a gradual increase either. It’s an explosive growth spurt. Just three months ago silver had reached an 11 month high. Now silver prices have reached a 23 month high. Several factors appear to be influencing these gains, including a weakening dollar, and the fact that the Fed may cut interest rates in light of the Brexit vote.

Personally, I don’t buy those explanations.

To me, the continuing implosion of major banks over in Europe is the main factor that is driving investors to safe haven assets such as silver.

 

 

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