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The Fed’s Empire of Speculation and the Echoes of 1929
The Fed’s Empire of Speculation and the Echoes of 1929 Speculation has its own expiration dynamics, and they don’t depend on us recognizing speculative excess for what it is. They will unravel the excesses regardless of what we think, hope or deny. The Federal Reserve has so completely normalized speculative excess that these extremes are […]
US Equity Futures Trade Near All Time High After ECB Goes All In
US Equity Futures Trade Near All Time High After ECB Goes All In If it was Powell’s intention to have the S&P trade at an all time when he cuts rates by another 25bps next Wednesday, he achieved it. S&P futures rose alongside Asian and European stocks as shares globally headed for a third weekly […]
8-Reasons To Hold Some Extra Cash
8-Reasons To Hold Some Extra Cash Over the past few months, we have been writing a series of articles that highlight our concerns of increasing market risk. Here is a sampling of some of our more recent newsletters on the issue. Never Hurts To Ring The Cash Register Looking For A Sellable Rally Bull vs. […]
Why the Fed, Nor Any Central Bank, Can Ever Truly “Normalize”
Why the Fed, Nor Any Central Bank, Can Ever Truly “Normalize” Last week, I highlighted that since ’00, when the Federal Reserve has ceased adding to its balance sheet or begun “normalizing” (via rolling off assets), equity markets have swooned (detailed HERE). A simple idea today…that the end of population growth (where it matters) has long been upon […]
Weekly Commentary: Cracks
Weekly Commentary: Cracks After posting an inter-week high of 25,800 on Tuesday, the DJIA then dropped 1,583 points (6.1%) at the week’s Friday morning low (24,218) – before closing the session at 24,538 (down 3.0% for the week). The VIX traded as low as 15.29 Tuesday. It then closed Wednesday at 19.85, jumped as high […]
Carmot Capital: “The Next Crisis Won’t Be A Flash Crash; It Will Be A Flash Flood”
Carmot Capital: “The Next Crisis Won’t Be A Flash Crash; It Will Be A Flash Flood” THE STRAIGHT FLUSH CRASH AN ILLUSION OF SIMPLICITY, AN ENTANGLEMENT OF COMPLEXITY Lately, there has been talk of so-called “elevated” markets. Equity markets, real estate markets and bond markets are indeed reaching new highs regularly. But how long will […]
Weekly Commentary: “Money” on the Move
Weekly Commentary: “Money” on the Move It’s been awhile since I’ve used this terminology. But global markets this week recalled the old “Bubble in Search of a Pin.” It’s too early of course to call an end to the great global financial Bubble. But suddenly, right when everything looked so wonderful, there are indication of […]
“The End Of The QE Trade”: Why Bank of America Expects An Imminent Market Correction
“The End Of The QE Trade”: Why Bank of America Expects An Imminent Market Correction Last Friday, when looking at the historic, record lows in September volatility and the daily highs in US and global equity markets, BofA’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said that the “best reason to be bearish in Q4 is there […]
‘They’ Have Decided “We Can’t Handle The Truth”
‘They’ Have Decided “We Can’t Handle The Truth” It’s a fun conceit of science fiction to contemplate the existence of alternative universes. As Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow points out, when you think they exist in the same time and place, it leaves the realm of the paperback section of the airport newsstand and is better discussed in […]
SocGen: “Now We Know Why The Fed Desperately Wants To Avoid A Drop In Equity Markets”
SocGen: “Now We Know Why The Fed Desperately Wants To Avoid A Drop In Equity Markets” With the ECB now unabashedly unleashing a bond bubble in Europe of which it has promised to be a buyer of last resort with the stronly implied hint that European IG companies should issue bonds and buy back shares, and promptly […]
The “Terrifying Prospect” Of A Triumph Of Politics Over Economics
The “Terrifying Prospect” Of A Triumph Of Politics Over Economics The Triumph of Politics All of life’s odds aren’t 3:2, but that’s how you’re supposed to bet, or so they say. They are not saying that so much anymore, or saying that history rhymes, or that nothing’s new under the sun. More and more theys seem […]
HSBC Looks At “Life Below Zero,” Says “Helicopter Money” May Be The Only Savior
HSBC Looks At “Life Below Zero,” Says “Helicopter Money” May Be The Only Savior In many ways, 2016 has been the year that the world woke up to how far down Krugman’s rabbit hole (trademark) DM central bankers have plunged in a largely futile effort to resuscitate global growth. For whatever reason, Haruhiko Kuroda’s move […]
Why Markets Are Crashing: “Faith In Central Banks Fails”
Why Markets Are Crashing: “Faith In Central Banks Fails” While Citigroup’s Eric Lee thinks its “ridiculous” to talk fo a US recession, it appears the macro data and markets would strongly disagree: as Bloomberg reports: Signals by central banks from Europe to Japan that additional stimulus is at the ready are failing to ease investor […]
Deutsche Bank Is Scared: “What Needs To Be Done” In Its Own Words
Deutsche Bank Is Scared: “What Needs To Be Done” In Its Own Words It all started in mid/late 2014, when the first whispers of a Fed rate hike emerged, which in turn led to relentless increase in the value of the US dollar and the plunge in the price of oil and all commodities, unleashing […]
