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Can lower oil prices cause a recession?

January 25, 2016

Can lower oil prices cause a recession? Donald Luskin writes in the Wall Street Journal: The global economy is slipping into recession. The evidence is showing up in all the usual ways: slowing output growth, slumping purchasing-manager indexes, widening credit spreads, declining corporate earnings, falling inflation expectations, receding capital investment and rising inventories. But this is […]

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Too Many Wildcards For Oil Markets To Settle Yet

October 6, 2015

Too Many Wildcards For Oil Markets To Settle Yet Could the price of oil be a value such that the current quantity produced exceeds the current quantity consumed? The answer is yes, and indeed that has been the case for much of the past year. Suppose, for illustration, that even at a price of $40, […]

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U.S. tight oil production decline

September 1, 2015

U.S. tight oil production decline U.S. oil production has begun to drop in response to low oil prices, but not as dramatically as many had anticipated.   Oil companies have cut back spending significantly in response to the fall in the price of oil. The number of rigs that are active in the main U.S. […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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