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The end of the Oil Age, as we knew it

The end of the Oil Age, as we knew it

I’ve just spent the last hour reading this long article, full of links to keep you occupied right through the holidays…. Louis loves his acronyms, and they can be tedious, but this is such an important piece of work. He’s the only person I know who thinks in a thermodynamic fashion; and as we know, thermodynamics takes no prisoners. You have to bear in mind he wrote this in 2017 when not many people were forecasting a pandemic. As I’ve been saying, pandemic or no pandemic, 2020 was crunch time, and 2030 is full on TSHTF time. You might need a strong drink at the end….

Part 3 of Looking down the barrel — the Tooth Fairy & the Dragon-King

This is our fifth GB post on the global demand for something else. Our two previous posts cast light on two “thermodynamic elephants” roaming in the “globalised industrial world room”, the GIW — the loss of access to bioenergy and the loss of access to oil. We characterised the second elephant as being in fact a Dragon-King, the Oil Fizzle Dragon-King (OFDK), that is, a very high probability abrupt process of very high impact that nonetheless almost no one saw coming because they were blinded by their beliefs, prejudices and short term interests. We are now going to look more in depth down the barrel, into the fizzling out, that is, the oil dynamics that triggered OFDK, as this will give us insight as to what may be coming next and how best to address OFDK. Most importantly, OFDK heralds the end of fiat currencies and an explosion of the demand for cryptocurrencies anchored in sound thermodynamics.

The Oil Fizzle Dragon-King in brief

Figure 1 — This is not a Black Swan

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

THE END OF THE OIL GIANTS: And What It Means

THE END OF THE OIL GIANTS: And What It Means

Recently, Saudi Aramco, the world largest oil exporter, has acknowledged that Ghawar, the world largest oil field, is in decline. The news went mostly unnoticed except in the specialised media.  OK, so the Saudi have a bit of bother, so what?  In fact, this piece of news is extremely important. Previously the oil world had been led to believe that Ghawar was producing over 5 Million barrels/day (Mb/d).[1] As part of its fund-raising, Aramco has disclosed that it is in fact down to 3.8Mb/d.

THE END OF THE OIL GIANTS:  And What It Means

GUEST POST: By Dr. Louis Arnoux

The meaning of this news snippet takes a bit of explaining.  What the specialised media did not emphasise is what follows:

When giant oil fields go into decline, they usually decline abruptly. Ghawar’s decline is ominous. It was discovered in 1948 and until recently represented about 50% of the oil crude production of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Ghawar is representative of some 100 to 200 giant oil fields. Most of them are old.  The most recently discovered giants are of a diminutive size compared with those old giants.[2]

Giants represent about 1% of the total number of oil fields and yet produce over 60% of conventional oil crude.[3]Very few real giants have been discovered in recent years. The geology of the planet is now known well enough and prospects for new significant giant oil discoveries are known to be low.  In recent decades, discoveries of smaller oil fields have not been able to compensate for the eventual loss of the giants. Figure 1 illustrates the matter. It shows the net flux of addition to reserves per year (additional volumes less volumes used). 

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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