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Societal Collapse Due to Climate Change and Conflict
SOCIETAL COLLAPSE DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT An Existential Threat There is a good paper floating about the internet warning that society could collapse due to climate change-related disasters and conflict in the next 20 years or so. Not good. Furthermore, according to the authors, such a collapse has been deemed not just possible, […]
Have tipping points already been passed for critical climate systems? (5) Coral Reefs: A death spiral
Have tipping points already been passed for critical climate systems? (5) Coral Reefs: A death spiral Great Barrier Reef bleaching 2016 Ecosystems, including coral reefs, mangroves and kelp forests in Australia, are degrading fast as the world’s sixth mass extinction gathers pace.Coral polyps are invertebrates similar to minute jellyfish, which build limestone structures, and live […]
What roles for markets and for the state when climate risk is existential?
What roles for markets and for the state when climate risk is existential? Climate system tipping points. From Climate Reality Check 2020 This blog is based on a paper given to the University of Hamburg’s “Unsustainable Past – Sustainable Futures?” conference on 12 February 2021. A video of the presentation is available. In his foreword to our 2018 Breakthrough […]
Zero by 2050 or 2030? 1.5°C or 2°C? Overshoot or not? Demystifying carbon budgets.
Zero by 2050 or 2030? 1.5°C or 2°C? Overshoot or not? Demystifying carbon budgets. Confused about carbon budgets for the Paris climate goals? Zero by 2050 or 2030? 1.5°C or 2°C? Overshoot or not? There is a maze of contradictory positions, claiming to be based on research evidence. But the assumptions behind much of that […]
New research on forests and oceans suggest projections of future warming may be too conservative, with serious consequences
New research on forests and oceans suggest projections of future warming may be too conservative, with serious consequences How much will the world warm with ongoing fossil-fuel carbon emissions? It’s a big question that preoccupies policymakers and activists, with important discussions about when the world will hit two degrees, are we really on a path […]
As warming approaches 1.5°C, talk of a carbon budget for the Paris targets is delusional
As warming approaches 1.5°C, talk of a carbon budget for the Paris targets is delusional There’s a lot of delusional talk about how much “carbon budget” (or new emissions) are allowable that would still keep global heating to the Paris target of 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C). The reality is that over the last year, global […]
World wakes up to scale of climate challenge, so what should a Labor government do?
World wakes up to scale of climate challenge, so what should a Labor government do? Quite suddenly, in the wake of the recent IPCC report, it’s become commonplace to talk about a global climate emergency. Al Gore told PBS on 12 October: “We have a global emergency. You use a phrase like that and some […]
What goes up must come down: It’s time for a carbon drawdown budget
What goes up must come down: It’s time for a carbon drawdown budget There is no carbon budget left for 1.5°C climate warming target, which means that to achieve this outcome every tonne of emissions must be matched by a tonne of drawdown of atmospheric carbon from now on. For that reason, carbon budgets and […]
1.5°C of warming is closer than we imagine, just a decade away
1.5°C of warming is closer than we imagine, just a decade away Global warming of 1.5°C is imminent, likely in just a decade from now. That’s the stunning conclusion to be drawn from a number of recent studies, surveyed below. Paris Commitments now put the world on a path of 3.4°C of warming by 2100 […]
What we learned about the climate system in 2017 that should send shivers down the spines of policy makers
What we learned about the climate system in 2017 that should send shivers down the spines of policy makers Much of what happened in 2017 was predictable: news of climate extremes became, how can I put it … almost the norm. There was record-breaking heat on several continents, California’s biggest wildfire (extraordinarily in the middle […]
