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The Bulletin: December 19-25, 2024
The Bulletin: December 19-25, 2024 The Great Simplification in Action: Building Resilience Through Local Communities Antarctica’s tipping points threaten global climate stability Coal use to reach new peak – and remain at near-record levels for years | Energy industry | The Guardian Homesteading 101: Regenerative Farming and the American Farmer. A Predicament With An Outcome […]
The Anatomy of the Coming Recession
The Anatomy of the Coming Recession Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not […]
U.S. Currency Wars With China—Past And Present In a purely political move, the Trump administration (read: the U.S. Treasury) has branded China as a currency manipulator. This is an act of war. After President Trump announced that even more tariffs would be imposed on China, the markets took the value of the Chinese yuan down […]
Weekly Commentary: “Hot Money” Watch
Weekly Commentary: “Hot Money” Watch In the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Monday daily currency value “fixing,” the yuan/renminbi was set 0.33% weaker (vs. dollar) at 6.9225. Market reaction was immediate and intense. The Chinese currency quickly traded to 7.03 and then ended Monday’s disorderly session at an 11-year low 7.0602 (largest daily decline since […]
4 Reasons To Expect Even More US-China Trade (And Currency) War Escalation
4 Reasons To Expect Even More US-China Trade (And Currency) War Escalation As we noted earlier when summarizing some of the more notable Wall Street reactions to China’s jarring trade war escalation, we highlighted the take of Morgan Stanley’s chief US public policy strategist, Michael Zezas, who said that he saw incentives for the U.S. to escalate […]
Currency War Begins: Chinese Yuan Crashes Past 7 To New Record Low; Global Markets Tumble After Beijing Suspends US Agri Imports
Currency War Begins: Chinese Yuan Crashes Past 7 To New Record Low; Global Markets Tumble After Beijing Suspends US Agri Imports Update 3: The carnage from yuan volatility is starting to spread… Chinese bond yields are tumbling… Dow futures are down 300 points… S&P futures below 2900… UST yields are collapsing… And the yield curve […]
Trade War With China Morphs Into Currency War: Biggest Loser is the EU
Trade War With China Morphs Into Currency War: Biggest Loser is the EU Those who think “trade wars are good and easy to win” need to stop and reflect on currency wars. Trade Wars Easy to Win ✔ When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it […]
America Loses When The Trade War Becomes A Currency War
America Loses When The Trade War Becomes A Currency War There has been a longstanding narrative in economic circles that no matter what crisis occurs the U.S. dollar is essentially invincible. I have never been one to buy into this assumption. Reason 1: Because I remember distinctly just before the derivatives and credit crisis in […]
Brazil Steps Up Intervention to Support the Real: Reflections on Currency Wars
Brazil Steps Up Intervention to Support the Real: Reflections on Currency Wars Winning currency wars is easy. As with trade wars, one may not care for the end result. Bloomberg reports Brazil Steps Up Intervention as the Real Crashes Toward Two-Year Low. Brazil’s central bank bolstered efforts to shore up the currency after it tumbled […]
Will Trump Launch a Currency War, Too?
China Photos/Getty Images Will Trump Launch a Currency War, Too? Last month, Donald Trump personally announced a series of import tariffs and other measures to restrict the flow of Chinese goods and capital into the United States. Clearly, Trump views China as a significant economic threat, so it may be only a matter of time […]
“Unloading Dollar Assets Would Be Most Effective” – Chinese State Media Unveils Trade War ‘Countermeasures’
“Unloading Dollar Assets Would Be Most Effective” – Chinese State Media Unveils Trade War ‘Countermeasures’ After President Trump declared “economic war” with China, seemingly following Bannon’s strategy to maintain hegemony… “We’re at economic war with China,” he added. “It’s in all their literature. They’re not shy about saying what they’re doing. One of us is […]
Now, a Trade War — Is a Shooting War Next?
Now, a Trade War — Is a Shooting War Next? A popular thesis since the 1930s is that a natural progression exists from currency wars to trade wars to shooting wars. Both history and analysis support this thesis. Currency wars do not exist all the time; they arise under certain conditions and persist until there […]
Trump’s Currency War Battle with China Goes
Trump’s Currency War Battle with China Goes Live Welcome to the currency wars. The Trump administration has entered a new low in relations with China. The change comes after the White House announced it is officially beginning to take aim at China’s economic strategy. As friction between the world’s greatest economic powers deteriorates toward a […]
The FX Mexican Standoff
The FX Mexican Standoff Theodor Horydczak Lincoln Memorial 1925 There has been quite a bit of talk lately over the need for a new Plaza Accord, something several parties saw happening during this weekend’s G20 summit in Shanghai -hence the term ‘Shanghai Accord’-. (On September 22, 1985 at the Plaza Hotel in New York City, France, West […]
This is How the Trade Pact Escalates the Currency War
This is How the Trade Pact Escalates the Currency War When negotiators from 12 nations and hundreds of lobbyists from around the world, after years of horse-trading, agreed on a “trade deal” on Monday – a deal that remains secret except for the sections that have been leaked – President Obama gushed that it “reflects […]
