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Explaining the Credit Cycle
EXPLAINING THE CREDIT CYCLE This article summarises why the credit cycle leads to alternate booms and slumps. It is only with this in mind that they can be properly understood as current economic conditions evolve. The reader is taken through three monetary models: a fixed money economy, one governed by changes in bank credit, and […]
The new deal is a bad old deal
The new deal is a bad old deal So far, the current economic situation, together with the response by major governments, compares with the run-in to the depression of the 1930s. Yet to come in the repetitious credit cycle is the collapse in financial asset values and a banking crisis. When the scale of the […]
Coronavirus and credit – a perfect storm
Coronavirus and credit – a perfect storm This article posits that the spread of the coronavirus coincides with the downturn in the global credit cycle, with potentially catastrophic results. At the time of writing, analysts are still trying to get to grips with the virus’s economic impact and they commonly express the hope that after […]
Central Bank “Stimulus” is Really a Huge Redistribution Scheme
Central Bank “Stimulus” is Really a Huge Redistribution Scheme When an economy turns from expansion to contraction there is an order of events. The first signs are an unexpected increase in inventories of unsold goods, both accompanied with and followed by business surveys indicating a general softening in demand. For monetarists, this is often confirmed […]
“Psychologically, They’re Ill-Prepared” – Canadian Chaos Looms
“Psychologically, They’re Ill-Prepared” – Canadian Chaos Looms Via Grant’s Almost Daily, I’m your huckleberry “U.S. hedge funds from time to time have appeared in this country over the last 10 years, with the same hypothesis of shorting Canadian banks, and it hasn’t worked out very well for them,” Brian Porter, CEO of the Bank of Nova […]
The Arrival of the Credit Crisis
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CREDIT CRISIS Those of us who closely follow the credit cycle should not be surprised by the current slide in equity markets. It was going to happen anyway. The timing had recently become apparent as well, and in early August I was able to write the following: “The timing for the […]
2019: The Beginning Of The End (Free Premium Report)
2019: The Beginning Of The End (Free Premium Report) What will happen next & what to do now Welcome to our new readers and a very Happy New Year to everyone! Now that it’s 2019, we’re going to start the new year here at Peak Prosperity by responding to the wishes of our premium subscribers […]
The Arrival Of The Credit Crisis
The Arrival Of The Credit Crisis Those of us who closely follow the credit cycle should not be surprised by the current slide in equity markets. It was going to happen anyway. The timing had recently become apparent as well, and in early August I was able to write the following: “The timing for the […]
Every Bubble Is In Search Of A Pin
Every Bubble Is In Search Of A Pin The ‘Everything Bubble’ has popped Now that the world’s central banking cartel is taking a long-overdue pause from printing money and handing it to the wealthy elite, the collection of asset price bubbles nested within the Everything Bubble are starting to burst. The cartel (especially the ECB […]
I Was Asked: “How & When Will the Next Financial Crisis Happen?”
I Was Asked: “How & When Will the Next Financial Crisis Happen?” China has a lot of balls in the air at the moment. FocusEconomics asked me and a bunch of other illustrious luminaries, “How and when will the next financial crisis happen?” First things first. A “financial crisis” is somewhat of a latex-term that […]
The Credit Cycle is on the Turn
THE CREDIT CYCLE IS ON THE TURN We are on the verge of moving into an era of high interest rates, so markets will behave differently from any time since the early-1980s. There are enough similarities with the post-Bretton Woods era of the 1970s to give us some guidance as to how markets are likely […]
Irrational Beliefs are Ruling Markets
IRRATIONAL BELIEFS ARE RULING MARKETS To understand the consequences of the credit cycle, we must dismiss pure opinion, and examine the evidence rationally. This article assesses the fate of the dollar on the next credit crisis, a subject of increasing topicality. It concludes that the late stage of the credit cycle has important similarities with […]
The Real Engine of the Business Cycle
MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images The Real Engine of the Business Cycle A valuable lesson from the Great Recession is that credit-supply expansions play a key role in subsequent recessions. When lenders make credit more available or more affordable, households respond by taking on debt, which drives up aggregate demand – that is, until the music stops. […]
When Will the Next Credit Crisis Occur?
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CREDIT CRISIS OCCUR? The timing of any credit crisis is set by the rate at which the credit cycle progresses. People don’t think in terms of the credit cycle, wrongly believing it is a business cycle. The distinction is important, because a business cycle by its name suggests it emanates from […]
