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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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Markets and Black Swans

Markets and Black Swans I began studying complexity theory as a consequence of my involvement with Long-Term Capital Management, LTCM, the hedge fund that collapsed in 1998 after derivatives trading strategies went catastrophically wrong. After the collapse and subsequent rescue, I chatted with one of the LTCM partners who ran the firm about what went […]

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“The Market Is On The Edge Of Chaos, A Zone Where Rare Events Become Typical”

“The Market Is On The Edge Of Chaos, A Zone Where Rare Events Become Typical”  According to Fasanara Capital, which has long argued  that the market’s systemic fragility is approaching its breaking point, markets stand at a critical juncture, ready to snap, as the following note from Fasanara’s Francesco Filia lays out. * * * […]

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Panarchy: Implications for Economic & Social PolicyHumanity’s Test

Panarchy: Implications for Economic & Social PolicyHumanity’s Test. Background  Panarchy is a model that seeks to explain the evolution of complex systems, developed firstly by Buzz Holling through his observation of the adaptive cycle of forests[1]. The forest cycle follows a process of growth/exploitation, conservation, release and reorganization/renewal. At first, there is rapid growth as new […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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