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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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Irrational Beliefs are Ruling Markets

IRRATIONAL BELIEFS ARE RULING MARKETS To understand the consequences of the credit cycle, we must dismiss pure opinion, and examine the evidence rationally. This article assesses the fate of the dollar on the next credit crisis, a subject of increasing topicality. It concludes that the late stage of the credit cycle has important similarities with […]

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Is the High Level of Debt a Major Economic Risk Factor?

IS THE HIGH LEVEL OF DEBT A MAJOR ECONOMIC RISK FACTOR? Many economic commentators regard high level of debt relative to GDP as a major risk factor as far as economic health is concerned. This way of thinking has its origins in the writings of the famous American economist Irving Fisher. According to Irving Fisher,[1] […]

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Close to the Edge

CLOSE TO THE EDGE “Look at it this way. In 100 years, who’s gonna care ?” Nancy, waitress, in ‘The Terminator’ (screenplay by James Cameron and Gale Ann Hurd). Imagine that a cyborg from 10 years into the future paid you a visit back in 2007. Here is what is going to happen, he says, […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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