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The Beast From The East, coal, gas and the UK

The Beast From The East, coal, gas and the UK

In late February 2018 high pressure over the North Atlantic and low pressure over the Mediterranean combined to generate a strong easterly airflow that brought Siberian temperatures to Western Europe, increasing heating demand to the point where there was a shortage of natural gas. The outcome was an increase in UK coal generation, partly because coal briefly became cheaper than gas as a source of electricity generation but mostly because the UK did not have enough gas in storage to fill both home heating and electricity generation needs. The UK, however, plans to shut down all its coal plants by 2025, and in this post I speculate as to what might have happened if they had all been shut down in 2018. The conclusion is that the UK would not have been able to cover peak load deficits during much of the cold period owing to inadequate gas supplies and installed gas capacity.

This post was prompted by the Drax Electric Insights Quarterly linked to by correspondent Ed T in Blowout Week 231. I had not come across this report before, but it provides a good summary of UK quarterly activity and I have plagiarized it where appropriate.

Figure 1 shows UK generation by source over the period between February 1 and March 31 2018, covering the Beast From the East cold periods. The generation data are five-minute Gridwatch values averaged into hourly intervals and the temperature data are daily means from the Met Office Central England temperature site:

Figure 1: UK hourly generation by source and mean daily Central England temperatures, February 1 to March 31 2018

Imports are plotted at the bottom because this is the only way I have found of displaying negative values (exports) on a stacked bar chart. Together with nuclear and biomass they provided reasonably stable baseload generation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Week of The Beast Unplugged

The Week of The Beast Unplugged

From 26th February to 5th March 2018, the UK and indeed most of Northern Europe was gripped by severe cold weather blowing in from Siberia. The event was Christened the Beast From the East by UK press. The conditions were harsh, not just sub-zero temperatures and snow but high winds that created life-threatening conditions. In this post I present the electricity generating statistics for the month 13 February to 12 March. The key point I want to make is that during the week of The Beast the UK’s remaining 10.6 GW of coal ran flat out day and night for 8 days. I think the time has come for the UK Government and National Grid to explain how they plan to keep the lights on when they close down this coal capacity by 2022-2025.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming

Before looking at the electricity data I want to dwell on the cause of The Beast which comes down to a process called Sudden Stratospheric Warming. This UK Met Office link has this to say (note there is also a good vid).

The term SSW refers to what we observe – rapid warming (up to about 50 ­°C in just a couple of days) in the stratosphere, between 10 km and 50 km up.

Jet streams high up in our atmosphere, in both the northern and southern hemisphere, circumnavigate the Earth from west to east. One of these, the Polar Night Jet, circles the Arctic.

Sometimes the usual westerly flow can be disrupted by natural weather patterns or disturbances in the lower part of the atmosphere, such as a large area of high pressure in the northern hemisphere. This causes the Polar Jet to wobble and these wobbles, or waves, break just like waves on the beach. When they break they can be strong enough to weaken or even reverse the westerly winds and swing them to easterlies. As this happens, air in the stratosphere starts to collapse in to the polar cap and compress. As it compresses it warms, hence the stratospheric warming.

This is the official view that needs to be contrasted with the man-made climate change drivel emanating from factions of the climate change community.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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