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Canada’s Mortgage Lenders Have Set Aside a Record Amount for Bad Loans

January 16, 2021

Canada’s Mortgage Lenders Have Set Aside a Record Amount for Bad Loans

It’s odd to see it occur while almost every market reports record home sales. 

Canada’s real estate markets are booming, but lenders are preparing for mortgage losses. Bank of Canada (BoC) data shows the allowance for credit losses due to mortgages reached a record high in Q3 2020. The record was reached with the biggest surge in the annual rate of growth since the Great Recession.

Today’s data point is the allowance for credit losses, specifically for mortgages. You might have already guessed what this is – the amount banks set aside in the event of non-payment. When lenders expect a loan has become unrecoverable, they have to add more money to this pile. We’re going to be looking at the aggregate amount across all lenders.

The amount set aside for losses has climbed to a new record high, and is growing unusually fast. Allowances reached $3.9 billion in Q3 2020, up 22.01% from the previous quarter. This represents an increase of 54.11% when compared to the same quarter last year. It’s not just a record high for dollars, but also the highest rate of growth in over a decade.

Biggest Growth Loss Allowances Since Great Recession

Mortgage loss allowances at Canadian lenders grew at the fastest pace since the Great Recession. There’s been consistent growth since 2018, but the annual rate of growth has been tapering. That is, until the most recently reported quarters. Both Q2 and Q3 in 2020, showed a very large surge in growth. It was Q3’s annual growth that was the largest print since 2009 though.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Eurozone Banking Crisis – ECB Delays Rules for Bad Loans until 2021

March 19, 2018

Eurozone Banking Crisis – ECB Delays Rules for Bad Loans until 2021

The European Central Bank (ECB) has postponed its new guidelines for banks because if it did not, the Italian banking system would simply collapse. The ECB has given Eurozone area banks more time to adapt to new guidelines on how to deal with bad loans. The deadline has been postponed from 2018 off into 2021. The new rules require banks to increase their capital for all loans, which are now classified as risk-taking. Bad loans are systemic in Europe as they increased after the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

After almost 10 years of Quantitative Easing to help banks, nothing has been achieved. Because of the Quantitative Easing, Europe has become very aggressive in collecting taxes. That is deflationary and Southern Europe still suffers from joining the Euro as a whole. The Quantitative Easing has simply kept governments on life-support while failing to stimulate the economy. Mario Draghi moved to negative interest rates in an effort for force people to spend. Instead, the bought safes and withdrew cash from the banks.

This latest move is once again trying desperately to keep the Eurozone afloat until Draghi ends his term next year. Then Draghi could care less what happens, for he will not be blamed if he can just get out the door before it all comes crashing down.

Europe Moving Into Meltdown?

January 22, 2016

Europe Moving Into Meltdown?

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QUESTION: Marty, now the OECD is predicting a financial crash worse than the 2007-2009 event in Europe because they say there is over €1 trillion in bad loans that cannot be collected. They seem to be also changing their opinion to fit your model. Were they there in Berlin?

ANSWER: We cannot comment on if the OECD is following our model or whom has attended a World Economic Conference. They are the most widely attended and many just want to know where the computer stands.

We see a massive banking crisis. The European banks are in deep trouble. Deutsche Bank posted a shocking €6.7 billion euro loss with its shares falling 10% in a day. HSBC bought Republic National Bank in New York for a bit more than that. Barclay’s is pulling out of all emerging markets and cutting 1,000+ jobs.

The collapse in commodities will reek havoc on all emerging market countries, but there is one economy that nobody pays attention to closely: Germany. Yes, it is the largest economy and main supporter of the euro. They need open borders and the euro to maintain their economy that is EXPORT driven. China is advancing more rapidly than Germany and has focused on trying to develop its internal economy. Spain was the richest nation in Europe with all the gold coming in from America, but they failed to develop their internal economy and collapsed. Germany is declining. It cannot be sustained with open borders or the euro because the rest of Europe is in serious decline. The refugee crisis is a nightmare. Now, Italy is demanding taxpayer money to bailout banks in fear that a bail-in will cause a revolution.

Merkel was against allowing in refugees previously, but then changed her position to combat her poor view after her treatment of Greece. Additionally, she had the brilliant idea of bringing in cheap labor to help Germany.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Great Fall Of China Started At Least 4 Years Ago

November 19, 2015

The Great Fall Of China Started At Least 4 Years Ago

Looking through a bunch of numbers and graphs dealing with China recently, it occurred to us that perhaps we, and most others with us, may need to recalibrate our focus on what to emphasize amongst everything we read and hear, if we’re looking to interpret what’s happening in and with the country’s economy.

It was only fair -perhaps even inevitable- that oil would be the first major commodity to dive off a cliff, because oil drives the entire global economy, both as a source of fuel -energy- and as raw material. Oil makes the world go round.

But still, the price of oil was merely a lagging indicator of underlying trends and events. Oil prices didn‘t start their plunge until sometime in 2014. On June 19, 2014, Brent was $115. Less than seven months later, on January 9, it was $50.

Severe as that was, China’s troubles started much earlier. Which lends credence to the idea that it was those troubles that brought down the price of oil in the first place, and people were slow to catch up. And it’s only now other commodities are plummeting that they, albeit very reluctantly, start to see a shimmer of ‘the light’.

Here are Brent oil prices (WTI follows the trend closely):

They happen to coincide quite strongly with the fall in Chinese imports, which perhaps makes it tempting to correlate the two one-on-one:

But this correlation doesn’t hold up. And that we can see when we look at a number everyone seems to largely overlook, at their own peril, producer prices:

About which Bloomberg had this to say:

China Deflation Pressures Persist As Producer Prices Fall 44th Month

China’s consumer inflation waned in October while factory-gate deflation extended a record streak of negative readings [..] The producer-price index fell 5.9%, its 44th straight monthly decline. [..] Overseas shipments dropped 6.9% in October in dollar terms while weaker demand for coal, iron and other commodities from declining heavy industries helped push imports down 18.8%, leaving a record trade surplus of $61.6 billion.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Bad-Loan Level Seen Understated After Economy Slows – Bloomberg

December 5, 2014

China Bad-Loan Level Seen Understated After Economy Slows – Bloomberg.

China’s bad-loan ratio may have been understated by at least a third in the second quarter as an economic slowdown weakened borrowers’ ability to repay debts.

The level may have been 1.5 percent or above,China Orient Asset Management Corp. said in a report yesterday, citing its survey of 64 local bank executives. That compared with an official number of 1.08 percent.

Banks’ bad loans jumped by the most since 2005 in the third quarter as the nation heads for the weakest economic expansion since 1990. Soured credit accounted for 1.16 percent of outstanding loans in the third quarter, data from the China Banking Regulatory Commission shows.

About 80 percent of those surveyed said bad-loan numbers may have been “significantly” or “slightly” understated, according to Orient Asset Management. Those who said the actual ratio may be above 2 percent accounted for more than one-third of those surveyed while another one-third of the executives said it may be 1.5 percent-2 percent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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