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The IMF and All The Other Losers
Andre Kertesz Bumper cars at amusement park in Neuilly-sur-Seine, near Paris 1930
Apart from the fast increasingly brainless political ‘discussions’ that don’t deserve the name, in the US and UK and beyond, there are the transnational organizations, NATO, IMF, EU and all those things, all suffocating in their own hubris, things I’ve dealt with before in for instance Globalization Is Dead, But The Idea Is Not and Why There is Trump. But none of it still seems to have trickled through anywhere that I can see.
The end of growth exposes the stupidity and ignorance of all but (and even that’s a maybe) a precious few (of our) ‘leaders’. There is no other way this could have run, because an era of growth simply selects for different people to float to the top of the pond than a period of contraction does. Can we agree on that?
‘Growth leaders’ only have to seduce voters into believing that they can keep growth going, and create more of it (though in reality they have no control over it at all). Anyone can do that. So ‘anyone’ who’s sufficiently hooked on power games will apply.
‘Contraction leaders’ have a much harder time; they must convince voters that they can minimize the ‘suffering of the herd’. Which is invariably a herd that no-one wants to belong to. A tough sell.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Bubbles and Backlashes
Bubbles and Backlashes
Image: trialsanderrors/Flickr CC.
Financial markets have been turbulent as of late with no end in sight. A sagging global economy could overwhelm America’s recovery efforts with toxic effects on key climate change and clean energy initiatives now underway.
The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to postpone an interest rate hike is but one reflection of their deep global concern. In a world of multiple, interrelated systems, a sneeze in one global system could cause pneumonia in another; ultimately triggering a perfect storm.
As the global economy worsens and bubbles start to burst, an over-fixation on economic recovery could relegate promising clean energy and climate change initiatives to a secondary status, or worse. The geopolitical blips on the radar screen are ominous. Consider this:
1.We’ve been warned
Global asset, credit and debt bubbles are on the cusp of bursting. My email “News Flash” warned of this last May (See: “Bubblemania is Contagious – Five Warning Signs”). The punctured commodity bubble has already demonstrated the economic fallout to nations exporting raw materials. Imagine the impact of multiple bubble bursts all at the same time. Bottom line: Bubbles always burst; it’s not about if, but when.
2. American limitations
America’s economy is strong compared to many others, but not strong enough to lift the world back into prosperity. In fact, the opposite could occur. China’s declining growth rate (See: “The Chinese Ripple Effect“), deep economic malaise in Europe, Japan, Russia, Brazil, OPEC nations and others, and a slowdown in global trade are taking a toll. Bottom line: Global economic headwinds will be difficult to overcome in the foreseeable future.
3. Low on ammo
In an effort to recover from the Great Recession of 2008 and stimulate growth, our Federal Reserve and central banks worldwide have “printed” money, devalued currencies, created an easy money environment and purchased debt (Quantitative Easing). In addition, governmental fiscal policies have piled on huge deficits and debt to stimulate growth.
– See more at: http://transitionvoice.com/2015/10/bubbles-and-backlashes/#sthash.XM1igyNv.dpuf
