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Subprime Auto Bubble Bursts As “Buyers Are Suddenly Missing From Showrooms”

It was less than a month ago when we showed a series of “10 charts revealing an auto bubble on the brink“, and which laid out several very troubling trends, including i) the average new vehicle loan hit a record high $31,099; ii) the average loan for a used auto climbed to a record high $19,589…

… iii) the average monthly payment for a new and used vehicle hitting an all-time high of $515…

… iv) the average auto loan hit a duration of 69 months, while the average used vehicle loan has a term of just over 64 months, both rising to new record highs for yet another quarter.

… v) the average price paid for a new vehicle also hitting an all-time high of $35,176, according to Edmunds.com, almost entirely as a result of a massive expansion in consumer credit and record amounts of auto loans.

Summarizing the above is simple: cheap credit leads to easy lending conditions, and record prices as everyone floods into the market with lenders hardly discriminating who they give money to.

But, as we said in March, the key data which seems to suggest that the auto bubble may have run its course came  from the following charts which showed that traditional banks and finance companies are starting to aggressively slash their share of new auto originations while OEM captives are being forced to pick up the slack in an effort to keep their ponzi schemes going just a little longer.

Commenting on these trends, Melinda Zabritski, Experian’s senior director of automotive finance solutions warned that “we’re certainly at a point where affordability is a question. When you look at how much income you need to support that payment, it certainly is higher than your average individual income.” And nowhere was this more obvious than the auto sector’s overreliance on stretched subprime borrowers, who remained the marginal source of auto demand as long as rates remained low.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Will Trump Accept Responsibility When This Shitshow Implodes?

WILL TRUMP ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY WHEN THIS SHITSHOW IMPLODES?

Donald J. Trump has taken credit for making America’s economy great again. He’s been crowing about all the jobs being created, the soaring consumer confidence and record highs in the stock market. It’s all because the Donald has inspired Americans about our glorious future.

But, a funny thing has been happening in the real world. The economy has gone into the shitter and GDP will be lucky to reach 1% in the first quarter of his presidency. The bullshit consumer confidence surveys mean absolutely nothing. Feelings don’t mean shit. What consumers do is what matters.

67% of the US economy is dependent upon Americans spending money they don’t have on shit they don’t need. And they’ve dramatically reduced that spending. If consumers are so confident, why are a record number of major retailers going bankrupt and closing 3,500 stores in 2017? Mom and pop retailers have been shuttering for years.

If the narrative about a dramatically improving housing market was true, why would furniture store sales and building material store sales be falling? They wouldn’t. It seems even the spendthrift millennials have run out of dough, as restaurant sales are in free fall. Restaurant chains have begun closing units now. It has only just begun.

The auto industry ponzi scheme has come to an end, as billions in subprime loans to deadbeats is finally coming home to roost. If you lend money to idiots with no means to repay you, the loans will go bad. Auto sales have begun to fall and will continue to fall for the next couple years, as this house of cards built on the Fed’s easy money collapses.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Donald Trump’s win ‘bad news for the auto industry,’ says David Dodge

Donald Trump’s win ‘bad news for the auto industry,’ says David Dodge

Former Bank of Canada governor predicts factories could move south of the border

A Chevrolet Cruze is assembled at General Motors' Lordstown Assembly Plant in Ohio. Donald Trump's goal of putting America first in trade agreements could be a problem for Ontario's auto industry.

A Chevrolet Cruze is assembled at General Motors’ Lordstown Assembly Plant in Ohio. Donald Trump’s goal of putting America first in trade agreements could be a problem for Ontario’s auto industry. (Mark Duncan/Associated Press)

A former Bank of Canada governor says renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement with president-elect Donald Trump will be dangerous for Canada’s automotive industry.

Part of Trump’s win has been credited to voters in the rust belt — Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania — where his anti–trade and protectionist promises played well with the electorate.

And he’ll remain beholden to those voters if he wants to stay in power, says Dodge.
“We’re going to have more of our classic border skirmishes with the Americans. The Canada-U.S. border will get thicker. I worry more about a lot of the bits and pieces that make trade difficult, as opposed to a wholesale slaughter,” he told the CBC’s Chris Hall in an interview for The House. 
Dodge federal budget

Former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge says Finance Minister Bill Morneau needs to focus on ‘setting the stage’ for the next four years ahead of this week’s federal budget. (Tom Hanson/Canadian Press)

“This is bad news for the auto industry in Ontario.… The only thing I can hope is the North American auto industry is so integrated across these borders and stuff flies back and forth so much that you can’t keep American factories operating without that flow taking place in the short run.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Unnerving Thing Wells Fargo Just Said About the Auto Boom

The Unnerving Thing Wells Fargo Just Said About the Auto Boom

American consumers are borrowing like never before to buy cars. It has been the reason why the US auto industry is intoxicated with its own exuberance. Last year, 16.5 million new vehicles were sold. This year, the industry hopes to breach the sound barrier of 17 million, or even 17.5 million. The industry is already dreaming about new all-time highs.

The growth is funded with borrowed money. Total auto loan balances outstanding grew 9.3% year over year to $975 billion at the end of December, an all-time high, according to Equifax. These balances will likely exceed the $1-trillion mark soon.

Auto lending to subprime customers – people with credit scores below 640 – has been particularly booming. Through October last year, 27.4% of all auto loan balances and 31% of the total number of auto loans were to subprime borrowers. Banks and subprime-focused specialty lenders convert these loans into structures securities, many of which carry triple-A ratings. They’re are selling like hot cakes, as bond fund managers gobble them up to create some yield in a world where central banks have expunged yield.

But bank regulators are warning about the auto lending spree. They’re worried about the ballooning loan-to-value ratios where the loan exceeds the “value” of the car by large amounts. Given that a car loses a lot of value the moment it drives off the dealer lot and continues to lose value, high LTV ratios raise the losses for lenders if the car is repossessed. But high LTV ratios also make the car expensive to finance. To keep payments down, loans are stretched to ludicrously long terms. And bank regulators are worried that these risky loans are made precisely to the riskiest customers.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

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