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The Most Astounding Credit Binge in History
The Most Astounding Credit Binge in History
Stripped Gears
DELRAY BEACH, Florida – “The Donald” breathed a sigh of relief yesterday. He and other rich people got a break from the beating they’ve been taking: Stocks bounced, with the Dow ending yesterday’s session up more than 600 points.
The gears have been stripped, and they look rusty…
Photo credit: Jonathon Cianfrani
Yesterday’s bump confirms the mainstream view: There is nothing to worry about. The recent sell-off is just a case of nerves, not a sign of an epizootic.
DJIA: don’t worry, be happy? – click to enlarge.
Here is U.S. Trust, a private bank for the ultra-wealthy, reassuring its customers:
“The action in the past few days has been based on fears that we will revisit the market environment from 1997 to 1998, in which the Asian currency crisis led to a sizable correction in world equity markets. A second breakdown in energy, a continued fall to record‐low prices in many commodities, and a deep drop in emerging market currencies and equities are sparking fears that a global growth recession is coming our way. And add to that the fact that investors are worried that the Federal Reserve may tighten into a large-scale slowdown is increasing the flight to safety.”
U.S. Trust, like Donald Trump and much of the media, blames the Chinese for the recent sell-off. Emerging market economies are slowing, they say, as the U.S. and developed economies are moving into “higher gear.” Higher gear? As near as we can determine, the gears have been stripped.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“The Most Astounding Credit Binge in History”
“The Most Astounding Credit Binge in History”
But is the bounce to be trusted?
“The Donald” breathed a sigh of relief. He and other rich people got a break from the beating they’ve been taking: Stocks bounced, with the Dow ending yesterday’s session up more than 600 points.
But is the bounce to be trusted? And are there better, more tangible, alternatives to investing in stocks? We’ll try to answer both questions in today’s update… We’ll also respond to a reader’s feedback on Mr. Trump in today’s Mailbag.
Stripped Gears
Yesterday’s bump confirms the mainstream view: There is nothing to worry about. The recent sell-off is just a case of nerves, not a sign of an epizootic. Here is U.S. Trust, a private bank for the ultra-wealthy, reassuring its customers:
The action in the past few days has been based on fears that we will revisit the market environment from 1997 to 1998, in which the Asian currency crisis led to a sizable correction in world equity markets. A second breakdown in energy, a continued fall to record‐low prices in many commodities, and a deep drop in emerging market currencies and equities are sparking fears that a global growth recession is coming our way. And add to that the fact that investors are worried that the Federal Reserve may tighten into a large-scale slowdown is increasing the flight to safety.
U.S. Trust, like Donald Trump and much of the media, blames the Chinese for the recent sell-off. Emerging market economies are slowing, they say, as the U.S. and developed economies are moving into “higher gear.”
Higher gear? As near as we can determine, the gears have been stripped.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Asian Currency Crisis Continues As China Holds, Malaysia Folds, & Japan Heads For Quintuple Dip Recession
Asian Currency Crisis Continues As China Holds, Malaysia Folds, & Japan Heads For Quintuple Dip Recession
Asia got off to an inauspicious start this evening with Japan printing a disappointing 1.6% drop in GDP – heading for its fifth recession in 6 years… so much for Abenomics, but, of course, Amari spewed forth some standard propaganda that he expects Japan to recover moderately (and Japanese stocks popped modestly assuming moar QQE). Then Malaysia continued its collapse with the Ringgit down another 1% hitting fresh 17-year lows and stocks dropping further, as the Asian Currency crisis continues. Heading into the China open, offshore Yuan signaled further devaluation but the CNY Fix printed very modestly stronger at 6.3969; and following last week’s best gains in 2 months, Chinese stocks are plunging at the open after Chinese farmers extend their streak of margin debt increases. Finally, WTI Crude drifted back to a $41 handle in early futures trading.
Asian Contagion…
Japan heads for Quintuple Dip recession…
The Asian currency crisis continues (led by Malaysia)
- *MALAYSIAN RINGGIT DROPS 0.9% TO 4.1155 PER DOLLAR
- *MALAYSIA’S KEY STOCK INDEX OPENS DOWN 0.4% AT 1,590.81
But broad-based USD strength against Asian FX continues…
Then China opened..
Great news – Chinese farmers and grandmas are releveraging!!
- *SHANGHAI MARGIN DEBT HAS LONGEST STREAK OF RISE IN TWO MONTHS
Seriously!
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Malaysia Meltdown: Asian Currency Crisis 2.0 Sends Ringgit, Stocks, Bonds Crashing
Malaysia Meltdown: Asian Currency Crisis 2.0 Sends Ringgit, Stocks, Bonds Crashing
When China went the “nuclear” (to quote SocGen) devaluation route earlier this week in a last ditch effort to rescue its export-driven economy from the perils of an increasingly painful dollar peg, everyone knew things were about to get a whole lot worse for an EM currency basket that was already reeling from plunging commodity prices, slumping Chinese demand, and the threat of an imminent Fed hike.
Sure enough, EM currencies from Brazil to South Korea plunged, and monetary authorities – unsure whether to play down the move or cry foul – scrambled to respond.
With some Asian currencies already falling to levels last seen 17 years ago, some analysts fear that an Asian Currency Crisis 2.0 may be just around the corner.
That rather dire prediction may have been validated on Friday when Malaysia’s ringgit registered its largest one-day loss in almost two decades.
As FT notes, “sentiment towards Malaysia has been damped by a range of factors including sharp falls in global energy prices since the end of June. Malaysia is a major exporter of both oil and natural gas, with crude accounting for almost a third of government revenue.” The central bank meanwhile, “has opted to step back from intervening in the market in response to the falling renminbi, unleashing pent-up downward pressure on the ringgit.” That, apparently, marks a notable change in policy. “The most immediate challenge is the limited scope of Malaysia’s central bank to step in,” WSJ says, adding that “for weeks, it tried to stem the currency’s slide, digging into its foreign-exchange reserves to prop up the ringgit and warning banks from aggressively trading against its currency.”
Surveying the damage, here’s the one-day:
And the one week:
And the one month:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
