Even SocGen’s Albert Edwards was surprised at how quickly his latest predication was validated.
Recall that 3 weeks ago with the 10Y yield at 3.10%, with Edwards looking at the surge higher in 10Y Yields the SocGen strategist pointed out that the break in the 10y above 2.8% was not the key level that could mark the end of the secular bull market, but rather it was the 3.05% zone as shown in the chart below.
Commenting on this breakout, he said that rates might surge further and addressed whether this would mean the end his “Ice Age” thesis. As he noted, if investors “get the wrong side of a new multi-year bear market in government bonds, all investment portfolios will be shredded to ribbons as bonds are the cornerstone of most equity valuation models”.
Fast forward to today when in his latest note he writes “let me be totally honest: I was most surprised that the US 10y yield managed to smash through its multi-decade downtrend last week, mainly due to the fact that the CFTC data showed that speculators had already built unprecedented large short positions. It seemed that every man, woman and child was already bearish and so who was left to sell? Well clearly someone was! One thing that helped tip bond prices over the edge and take yields up to 3¼% was the fundamental support from stronger than expected economic data (see chart below). ”
Another factor for the latest breakout in yields which pushed the 10Y interest rate to fresh 7 years highs was the previously discussed economic exuberance by Fed Chair Powell who managed to convince markets that they were still too sanguine on their expectations on interest rates, “and the futures strip ratcheted up another notch towards the Fed dots.”
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