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As U.S. gold exports to Hong Kong and China fell 25% in the first four months of the year, London picked up the slack. According to the USGS, U.S. gold exports to London surged more than doubled from January to April, compared to the same period last year. Interestingly, the amount of gold exported to London during this period nearly equaled the total U.S. domestic gold mine supply.

From the data reported in the USGS Gold Mineral Industry Survey’s, U.S. gold exports to the U.K. (London) jumped to 64.3 metric tons (mt) Jan-Apr, versus 25.5 mt during the first four months last year:

Here is the breakdown of U.S. gold exports to London for each month:

Jan = 12.2 mt

Feb = 12.1 mt

Mar = 21.2 mt

Apr = 18.8 mt

Total 64.3 mt

As I have mentioned, a lot London’s gold is exported to China and Switzerland. And then, the majority of Switzerland’s gold is exported to Hong Kong and China. For example, according to the statistics on GoldChartsrus, in March, the U.K. exported 16 mt of gold to China and 32 mt of gold to Switzerland. In the very same month, Switzerland exported 80 mt of gold to Hong Kong and China. So, most of the west’s gold still ends up in Hong Kong and China.

Here are the top three countries that received gold exports from the United States Jan-Apr 2017 versus 2018:

From Jan-Apr 2017, the United Kingdom received 25.5 mt of gold from the U.S., compared to 69 mt shipped to Hong Kong and China and 48.3 mt sent to Switzerland. Now during the same period this year, U.S. gold exports to the U.K. jumped to 64.3 mt while Hong Kong and China fell to 50.5 mt and Switzerland declined to 40 mt:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Areas Of The World More Vulnerable To Collapse

June 17, 2018

Areas Of The World More Vulnerable To Collapse

Certain areas of the world are more vulnerable to economic and societal collapse. While most analysts gauge the strength or weakness of an economy based on its outstanding debt or debt to GDP ratio, there is another factor that is a much better indicator. To understand which areas and regions in the world that will suffer a larger degree of collapse than others, we need to look at their energy dynamics.

For example, while the United States is still the largest oil consumer on the planet, it is no longer the number one oil importer. China surpassed the United States by importing a record 8.9 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2017. This data came from the recently released BP 2018 Statistical Review. Each year, BP publishes a report that lists each countries’ energy production and consumption figures.

BP also lists the total oil production and consumption for each area (regions and continents). I took BP’s figures and calculated the Net Oil Exports for each area. As we can see, the Middle East has the highest amount of net oil exports with 22.3 million barrels per day in 2017:

The figures in the chart above are shown in “thousand barrels per day.” Russia and CIS (Commonwealth Independent States) came in second with 10 mbd of net oil exports followed by Africa with 4 mbd and Central and South America with 388,000 barrels per day. The areas with the negative figures are net oil importers.

The area in the world with the largest net oil imports was the Asia-Pacific region at 26.6 mbd followed by Europe with 11.4 mbd and North America (Canada, USA & Mexico) at 4.1 mbd.

Now, that we understand the energy dynamics shown in the chart above, the basic rule of thumb is that the areas in the world that are more vulnerable to collapse are those with the highest amount of net oil imports.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Total U.S. Public Debt & Interest Expense Hit A New Record High

June 5, 2018

Total U.S. Public Debt & Interest Expense Hit A New Record High

The total U.S. public debt hit a new record high of $21.145 trillion on the last day in May. As the U.S. debt increased, so did the interest expense which jumped by more than $26 billion in the first seven months of the fiscal year. That’s correct; the United States government forked out an additional $26 billion to service its debt (Oct.-Apr) versus the same period last year.

While the U.S. debt reached a new high on May 31st, it took nearly two months to do it. Let me explain. During tax season, the total U.S. public debt actually declined from a peak of $21.135 trillion on April 10th to a low of $21.033 trillion on May 3rd. Since then, the U.S. debt has been steadily moving higher (including some daily fluctuations):

If you spend some time on the TreasuryDirect.gov site, you will see that the total public debt doesn’t go up in a straight line. There are days or weeks where the total debt declines. However, the overall trend is higher.

Now, a rising debt level impacts the interest the U.S. Treasury must pay on this debt… especially when the average interest rate also increases. According to the TreasuryDirect.gov, the interest expense rose from $257.3 billion (Oct-Apr) 2017 to $283.6 billion (Oct-Apr) this year:

As I mentioned, the U.S. government paid an additional $26 billion to service the debt than it did last year. Now, $26 billion may not seem like a lot of money these days, but it could buy the total global Registered Silver inventory:

Thus, the extra $26 billion paid by the U.S. Treasury to service its debt would have purchased the 1+ billion ounces of silver held in the COMEX (270 million oz) and all the Global Silver ETFs. And, this would include the 138 million oz of silver supposedly stored at the JP Morgan vaults.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Unbelievable Amount Of Frac Sand Consumed By U.S. Shale Oil Industry

June 3, 2018

The Unbelievable Amount Of Frac Sand Consumed By U.S. Shale Oil Industry

The U.S. Shale Oil Industry utilizes a stunning amount of equipment and consumes a massive amount of materials to produce more than half of the country’s oil production. One of the vital materials used in the production of shale oil is frac sand. The amount of frac sand used in the shale oil business has skyrocketed by more than 10 times since the industry took off in 2007.

According to the data by Rockproducts.com and IHS Markit, frac sand consumption by the U.S. shale oil and gas industry increased from 10 billion pounds a year in 2007 to over 120 billion pounds in 2017. This year, frac sand consumption is forecasted to climb to over 135 billion pounds, with the country’s largest shale field, the Permian, accounting for 37% of the total at 50 billion pounds.

Now, 50 billion pounds of frac sand in the Permian is an enormous amount when we compare it to the total 10 billion pounds consumed by the entire shale oil and gas industry in 2007.

To get an idea of the U.S. top shale oil fields, here is a chart from my recent video, The U.S. Shale Oil Ponzi Scheme Explained:

(charts courtesy of the EIA – U.S. Energy Information Agency)

As we can see in the graph above, the Permian Region is the largest shale oil field in the United States with over 3 million barrels per day (mbd) of production compared to 1.7 mbd in the Eagle Ford, 1.2 mbd at the Bakken and nearly 600,000 barrels per day in the Niobrara. However, only about 2 mbd of the Permian’s total production is from horizontal shale oil fracking. The remainder is from conventional oil production.

Now, to produce shale oil or gas, the shale drillers pump down the horizontal oil well a mixture of water, frac sand, and chemicals to release the oil and gas. You can see this process in the video below (example used for shale gas extraction):

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

GLOBAL FINANCIAL BREAKDOWN CONTINUES: Economic Growth Chokes On Massive Debt Increases

May 29, 2018

GLOBAL FINANCIAL BREAKDOWN CONTINUES: Economic Growth Chokes On Massive Debt Increases

The U.S. and global economies are choking on a massive amount of debt. While Wall Street and the Mainstream financial media continue to rationalize the skyrocketing debt as merely the cost of doing business, the disintegrating fundamentals point to an economic catastrophe in the making.

Of course, a full-blown economic meltdown may not occur this year or even next, but as time goes by, the situation continues to deteriorate in an exponential fashion. So, the cheerleaders for higher stock, bond, and real estate prices will continue to get their way until the economy is thrown into reverse as decades of increasing debt, leverage and margin finally destroy the engine for good.

Yes, I say for good. What seems to be missing from the analysis is this little thing called energy. The typical economist today looks at the global markets much the same way as a child who is waiting for the tooth fairy to exchange a tooth for a $20 bill. When I was a kid, it was $1 per tooth, but like with everything today, inflation is everywhere.

Mainstream economists just look at market forces, percentages, and values on a piece of paper or computer. When economic activity begins to fall, they try to find the cause and remedy it with a solution. Most of the time, the solutions are found by printing more money, increasing debt, changing interest rates or tax percentages. And… that’s about it.

There is no mention of what to do with energy in the economist’s playbook. For the typical economist, energy is always going to be there and if there are any future problems with supply, then, of course, the price will solve that issue. Due to the fundamental flaw of excluding energy in College economic courses; the entire profession is a complete farce.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

THE SHALE OIL PONZI SCHEME EXPLAINED: How Lousy Shale Economics Will Pull Down The U.S. Economy

May 19, 2018

THE SHALE OIL PONZI SCHEME EXPLAINED: How Lousy Shale Economics Will Pull Down The U.S. Economy

Few Americans realize that the U.S. economy is being propped up by the Shale Oil Industry. However, the shale oil industry is nothing more than a Ponzi Scheme, so when it collapses, it will take down the U.S. economy with it. Unfortunately, the reason few Americans understand how lousy the economics are in producing shale oil and gas is due to the misinformation and propaganda being put out by the industry and energy analysts.

I am quite surprised how bank analysts and brokerage firms can continue to fund the shale oil and gas or advise clients to purchase stock when the industry is behaving just like the Bernie Madoff Ponzi Scheme. The only big difference is that the U.S. Shale Industry is a Ponzi at least four times greater than Madoff’s $65 billion fiasco.

I decided to discuss in detail why the U.S. Shale Oil Industry was a Ponzi Scheme in my newest video. I provide some interesting charts that explain how the huge decline rates and massive debt are going to bring down the industry, much quicker than the market realizes.

In the video, I show just how quickly two of the largest U.S. shale oil fields decline. The chart below was developed by Enno Peters at the ShaleProfile.com website. The Permian, the largest shale basin in the United States, decline rate was a stunning 60% in just two years. Thus, the companies producing oil in the Permian are forced to spend boatloads of Captial Expenditures (CAPEX) to grow or just maintain production:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Turkish Gold Imports Triple As The Central Bank Diversifies Out Of Dollars

May 16, 2018

Turkish Gold Imports Triple As The Central Bank Diversifies Out Of Dollars

Turkish gold imports surged due to a sharp increase in investment demand as well as renewed Central bank purchases. While the Chinese and Russian governments have been adding gold to their official reserves over the past several years, Turkey added 86 metric tons to its official holdings in the last seven months of 2017.

According to the 2018 World Gold Survey, Turkish official gold holdings reached a new record high of 565 metric tons (mt) last year as the government decided to replace a significant amount of its Dollar reserves with gold. And, this continued even in the first quarter of 2018. Information from the World Gold Council’s Demand Trend reported that Turkey added another 30 mt of gold to its official reserves in Q1 2018.

If we look at the chart below, we can see just how much gold Turkey imported in 2017 versus 2016:

Turkish gold imports more than tripled from 106 mt in 2016 to 361 mt in 2017. Again, the large increase in Turkish gold imports was due to a 60% increase in investment demand and the 86 mt purchase by the Central bank. With the addition of the 30 mt of Central bank gold purchases in Q1 2018, official Turkish holdings are now nearly 600 mt.

Of the total 366 mt of Central bank gold purchases in 2017, Russia (224 mt) accounted for 61% of the amount while Turkey (86 mt) acquired 23% and Kazakhstan (43 mt) at 12%. The remaining 4% was split amongst Columbia, Mongolia, Indonesia, Jordan, and Thailand (Source: GFMS 2108 World Gold Survey):

What is quite interesting about the increase in Turkish gold demand and imports is how it compares to the United States. In 2017, Turkey imported 361 mt of gold versus 255 mt for the United States. Thus, Turkey, whose population is one-quarter of the United States, imported 100+ mt more gold. Of course, most of the U.S. gold imports are refined and then exported to Switzerland, United Kingdom, China and various other Asian and Middle Eastern countries.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The 3 Stage Housing Bubble Collapse

May 11, 2018

The 3 Stage Housing Bubble Collapse

Most Americans don’t know, but the housing market is heading toward another epic bubble. However, the bubble forming today is much different than the subprime housing meltdown in 2007. Back in 2007, there was an oversupply of homes, whereas today there is a shortage. With more buyers than sellers bidding up prices, the U.S. median home price value hit a new record high of $338,000 at the end of 2017.

Unfortunately, wages have not kept up with rising home values. For example, the average hourly earnings have only increased 21% since 2009. However, the U.S. median home price $330,000 in Q1 2018 is 53% higher:

Now, to make up for the shortage of homes in the high-demand cities across the country, the new-home building boom is once again on the rise. The U.S. housing starts in March are up to 1.3 million from the low of 478,000 at the bottom of the 2009 recession. Now, even though current housing starts are more than double what they were at the lows in 2009, they are nearly 50% less than the peak of 2.3 million in 2006.

However, there is a much different dynamic today as the cost to build a new home is much higher than it was in 2006. At the peak in 2006, the U.S. median new home price was $262,000 versus the $337,000 in Q1 2018. Moreover, the U.S. median new home price is 60% higher than the low in 2009:

Even though the average wages of an American increased 21% since 2009, the median new home price is 60% higher. Part of the reason for the higher new home price is the increased demand but it’s also due to higher costs. For example, the lumber price shut up 170% since the beginning of 2016. When the U.S. median new home price reached a high of $262,000 in 2006, the price of lumber was $330. Today, the lumber price isn’t quite double, but at $592, it’s pretty darn close:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Two Most Important Reasons To Invest In Gold & Silver

May 8, 2018

The Two Most Important Reasons To Invest In Gold & Silver

As the markets and financial system continue to be propped up by an ever-increasing amount of debt and leverage, precious metals investors need to understand the two most important reasons to invest in gold and silver. While one of the reasons to own precious metals is understood by many in the alternative media community, the more important critical factor is not.

The motivation to write this article is due to the increasing amount of negative sentiment and comments in regards to precious metals analysis and investing. There’s a very interesting notion put forth by many commenters that the precious metals analysts and dealers are the frauds and charlatans, not Wall Street or the Central Banks. I imagine they believe this because gold and silver prices haven’t performed as forecasted or compared to the insanely inflated stock, real estate, and crypto markets.

Before I discuss the two important reasons to own precious metals, I would like to provide some information about the fraud and corruption taking place in the financial industry.

Now, it is true that a few precious metals dealers have defrauded investors, but this is true with all sectors and markets in the financial industry. However, investors frustrated with the precious metals tend to forget the massive amount of fraud and losses that took place as a result of the 2008 Housing and Investment Banking collapse.

For example, according to the article, Financial Crisis Bank Fines Hit Record 10 Years After The Market Collapse:

$150 billion (127.6 billion euros) – that’s how much US authorities have collected in fines from financial institutions for shady dealings with subprime mortgages since the beginning of the credit crisis in 2007, according to research by the British business daily Financial Times (FT).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

TOM CLOUD UPDATE: Rising Interest Rates To Impact The Metals & Large Investors Make Up 70% Of Gold & Silver Buying

May 3, 2018

TOM CLOUD UPDATE: Rising Interest Rates To Impact The Metals & Large Investors Make Up 70% Of Gold & Silver Buying

Today, Tom Cloud provided another interesting precious metals update. He discusses how rising interest rates will impact the precious metals and why the Federal Reserve is forced to continue increasing rates. Tom also explains what is going on with official gold reserves in China and Russia.

Tom also mentions how his precious metals sales volume has changed since 2007. I spoke with Tom on the phone this week to get an update as he hears a lot of what is going on in the industry. I asked him if he could look at his precious metals sales figures and see how the small and larger investor buying volume has changed:

If you look at the chart below, the smaller precious metals investor had, the larger pie in gold and silver volume during the 2007-2009 period. According to Tom’s sales figures, the small investor, $50,000 or less, accounted for 62% of total volume while the large investor was 38%. This trend changed in the next period, 2013-2017 as the large investor made up 58% of total volume while the small investor fell to 42%.

Tom said that so far this year, the large investor accounted for 70% (or more) of total precious metals sales as smaller investor buying fell further to only 30%. So, the little guy is not participating in the precious metals market as they were in 2007-2009 when the stock and economy was disintegrating.

However, the larger gold and silver buyer is usually the wiser investor. The small investor is more fickle and has to wait until panic comes back into the market before they start buying once again. Furthermore, the small investor is also the one that loses faith much easier and is known to flip-flop by getting out frustrations by writing negative comments about gold and silver.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Gold & Silver Won’t Crash Along With The Stock Markets

April 30, 2018

Why Gold & Silver Won’t Crash Along With The Stock Markets

When it comes to what happens during the next major market correction-crash, we can count on that “this time will be different” for the gold and silver prices. While many precious metals investors believe that gold and silver will crash along with the broader markets, the charts and data suggest the opposite.

In my newest video, Why Gold & Silver Won’t Crash Along With The Stock Markets, I provide charts and updated information on the break-even analysis of the primary gold and silver mining industry. According to my research, the gold market price has not fallen below the production cost of the top gold miners in the past two decades.

Some analysts, such as Harry Dent, believe the gold price will fall to $700 this year. Dent reconfirmed his forecast in the following article, Why We Are Heading Toward $700 Gold In 2018:

Investors are fleeing to gold in a desperate attempt to weather the recent market volatility… but is this long time “safe-haven” actually poised to collapse wiping out trillions of dollars of wealth in the process?

While many economists will argue that gold is not in a bubble… and insist it will soar to $2,000, $5,000 and even $10,000, my research has said otherwise. I’ve never been more certain of anything in over 30 years of economic forecasting.

Market volatility, worries over the Europe Central Bank, negative interest rates, and China are among a laundry list of events that are driving panicked masses to buy the yellow metal. But this is only inflating the gold bubble that is poised to pop at any moment.

Mr. Dent states the due to the current market volatility, worries over Central banks, negative interest rates, and fears about China’s massive credit bubble are driving investors into gold. BUT, according to Dent, this gold bubble is about to POP.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

GOLD & SILVER: The Ultimate Hedge Against Everything That Is Wrong In The Markets

April 25, 2018

GOLD & SILVER: The Ultimate Hedge Against Everything That Is Wrong In The Markets

Today we are getting another whiff of what’s wrong in the markets. Currently, the Dow Jones Index is down over 500 points, and the NASDAQ is off by more than 100 points. Who knows where the markets will finally end up at the close of trading, but it really doesn’t matter. Markets aren’t valued in days or weeks; rather it takes months and years. So, be patient, and you will be rewarded with at least a 50% decline in the Dow Jones Index.

Unfortunately, a lot of traders, even some frustrated precious metals investors, forget about the STAGES OF A FINANCIAL BUBBLE. It seems like after about ten years, all memory of the 2008 Financial Meltdown has been all but forgotten. While I can understand the “This time is different” by the Mainstream Media, I have to get a kick reading comments by disenchanted precious metals investors who have been swayed by the rampant insanity in the markets.

So, let me publish the stages of a financial bubble to remind those who have either been brainwashed by the Mainstream Media or who have just forgotten the fundamentals:

If I had to make a reasonable guesstimate, I would imagine we are somewhere going down the Peak slope or close to the Denial Stage. However, once the Dow Jones Index falls below 20,000, we will know that the markets have entered into the Fear Stage. During the Fear Stage is when I see the price and demand for precious metals to increase. As we enter the Capitulation Stage, then we could experience precious metals demand like we have never seen before.

Let’s take a look at the current Dow Jones Index chart. As I mentioned in several articles and videos, nothing goes down in a straight line, and it will likely take 1-2 years before the Index reaches its lows. However, this will not be the Dow’s ultimate low.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Two Mines Supply Half Of U.S. Silver Production & The Real Cost To Produce Silver

April 6, 2018

Two Mines Supply Half Of U.S. Silver Production & The Real Cost To Produce Silver

Just two mines supply the United States with half of its silver production, and both are located in Alaska. It’s quite amazing that Alaska now produces half of the silver for the U.S. when only 30 years ago total mine supply from the state was less than 50,000 oz per year. The silver produced in Alaska comes from the Greens Creek and Red Dog Mines. One is a primary silver mine and the other a zinc-lead base metal mine.

Even though Hecla’s Greens Creek Mine is labeled as a primary silver mine, 56% of its revenues come from its gold, zinc, and lead metal sales. However, Teck Resources, that runs the Red Dog Mine doesn’t even list its silver production in its financial reports. Because Red Dog produces one heck of a lot of zinc and lead, their silver production doesn’t amount to much in the way of revenues.

For example, the Red Dog Mine produced 542,000 metric tons (1.1 billion pounds) of zinc and 110,000 metric tons (222 million pounds) of lead, while its estimated silver production was 6.6 million oz (Moz). According to Teck’s 2017 Annual Report, total revenues from the Red Dog Mine were $1.75 billion. With the estimated silver price of $17 in 2017, total revenues from 6.6 Moz of silver were $112 million, or just 6% of the total.

In addition, Hecla’s Greens Creek Mine in Alaska produced 8.4 Moz of silver this year, down from 9.2 Moz in 2016. As I mentioned, the Greens Creek Mine also generated a lot of gold, zinc, and lead, equaling $182 million of the total revenues of $326 million (including treatment costs).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

MARKET MELTDOWN CONTINUES: Gold & Silver Prices Begin To Disconnect

April 3, 2018

MARKET MELTDOWN CONTINUES: Gold & Silver Prices Begin To Disconnect

As the BLOOD continues to run on Wall Street, gold and silver were the few assets trading in the green today. As I have mentioned in past articles and interviews, investors need to get used to this sort of trading activity. Even though the Dow Jones Index ended off its lows of the day, it shed another 458 points while the Nasdaq declined 190 points and the S&P fell 60.

As the broader markets sold off, the gold price increased $15 while silver jumped by $0.25. However, if we look at these markets during their peak of trading, the contrast is even more remarkable:

At the lows of the day, the Dow Jones Index fell 730 points or 3%, while the S&P 500 fell 3.2% and the Nasdaq declined by 3.8%. Also, as I expected, the oil price fell along with the broader markets by dropping 2.7%. If individuals believe the oil price will continue towards $100, due to supply and demand fundamentals put forth by some energy analysts, you may want to consider one of the largest Commercial Net Short positions in history. Currently, the Commercial Net Short position is 738,000 contacts. When the oil price was trading at a low of $30 at the beginning of 2016, the Commercial Net Short position was only 180,000 contracts.

Furthermore, if we agree that supply and demand forces are impacting the oil price to a certain degree, does anyone truly believe oil demand won’t fall when the stock market drops by 50+%??? I forecast that as market meltdown continues, the oil price will decline as oil demand falls faster than supply.

Now, when the markets were at their lows today, gold at its peak was up $20 while silver increased by $0.44. Of course, this type of trading activity won’t happen all the time, and we could see a selloff in all assets some days.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

CHILE, WORLD’S FOURTH LARGEST SILVER PRODUCER: Mine Supply Down 20%

April 2, 2018

CHILE, WORLD’S FOURTH LARGEST SILVER PRODUCER: Mine Supply Down 20%

Silver mine supply from the world’s fourth-largest silver producer fell significantly at the beginning of 2018. According to Chile’s Ministry of Mines, domestic silver production in January declined 20% versus the same month last year. Chile’s silver production has been falling considerably since its recent peak in 2014.

In just three years, Chile’s domestic silver mine supply fell 10 million oz (Moz) from 50.1 Moz in 2014 to 40.4 Moz last year. Interestingly, Chile’s silver production is down 20% since 2014 while the country’s copper mine supply is only down 5%. Because most of Chile’s silver supply comes as a by-product of copper mining, it’s surprising to see such a significant decline in their silver production.

If we look at three of the top four silver producers in the world, Mexico’s silver mine supply in January increased 7% while Peru declined 6%:

According to the official data, Mexico’ silver production increased 29 metric tons (mt), Peru fell 20 mt and Chile dropped by nearly 21 mt. Thus, overall silver mine supply from these top three producers fell 13 mt in January versus the same month last year. Even though Mexico will likely experience an increase in silver mine supply in 2018, declining production from other leading countries may curtail overall world supply.

If we look at total silver production from these three countries, the peak took place in 2015 at 373 million oz:

In just two years, the combined silver output from Mexico, Peru, and Chile is down 21 Moz. Now, what’s even more interesting is the growing disparity in production figures released by the official governments and those collected by Thomson Reuters GFMS and published in the World Silver Surveys.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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